Gold and silver have sent clear macro signals. The price of gold has surged to around $4,700 per ounce, while silver is nearing $94 per ounce, both reaching historic highs. These trends reflect the market's hedging behavior at the end of the cycle amid ongoing monetary uncertainty and rising political risks. In contrast, Bitcoin is still digesting the impact of a recent flash crash, currently stabilizing around $92,000 per ounce, well below the psychological threshold of $100,000.

This divergence is not coincidental. Instead, it highlights Bitcoin's evolving role within the global macro system. Bitcoin trading is no longer solely reliant on various narratives within the cryptocurrency space but is increasingly influenced by liquidity conditions, political incentives, and cross-asset capital rotation. In this context, combining selected insights from the Galaxy 2026 outlook with macro signals from the predictive market can provide a useful framework for understanding Bitcoin's short- to medium-term trends.

Bitcoin's Macro Transformation and the Gradual Disappearance of the Four-Year Cycle

For much of Bitcoin's history, price movements have been interpreted through a relatively simple four-year halving cycle. Supply shocks, speculative leverage, and inherent market perceptions have driven extreme price surges and crashes. As Bitcoin's market capitalization has grown and institutional participation has increased, this explanatory framework has begun to lose its effectiveness.

The integration of Bitcoin with traditional financial infrastructure—including spot ETFs, institutional custody, and regulated trading venues—has deepened, gradually reducing its volatility. The peak drawdowns in the recent cycle have been smaller than in the past, and liquidity during stress events has improved. These developments suggest that Bitcoin is transitioning from a purely reflexive asset to one that resembles a macroeconomic-sensitive risk asset.

Consequently, Bitcoin trading is increasingly aligned with overall liquidity conditions, often showing higher correlation with tech stock indices during periods of monetary tightening or easing. This shift has not eliminated volatility but has changed the drivers of that volatility.

2026 Bitcoin Price Structure: A Gold-Like Pattern

Bitcoin's current situation can be likened to gold during a macroeconomic transformation period. Historically, when real interest rates begin to decline but uncertainty remains high, gold prices often experience an initial drop or prolonged consolidation before resuming their long-term upward trend.

Applying this pattern to Bitcoin suggests that short-term risks still lean towards downward or sideways movement. Galaxy's analysis emphasizes a critical zone between $100,000 and $105,000. If Bitcoin cannot sustain a breakout and consolidate above this range, it may remain in a post-halving adjustment phase for much of 2026.

Such phases typically manifest as extreme price volatility, waning speculative interest, and declining leverage, rather than sudden crashes. In previous cycles, this environment has lasted for several months, during which prices tend to stabilize before market sentiment recovers.

Bitcoin, Politics, and the 2026 U.S. Midterm Elections

Among the macro variables influencing Bitcoin's outlook for 2026, one of the most easily underestimated factors is domestic U.S. politics. The U.S. midterm elections are scheduled for November 3, 2026, and financial markets rarely wait for election results to adjust their positions.

In 2025, the cryptocurrency industry benefited from a relatively favorable policy environment, with regulatory adjustments and clearer legislative signals boosting institutional confidence. However, as the midterm elections approach, the risks of political reversals or legislative gridlock are also increasing.

Historically, institutional investors tend to start reducing their investments in policy-sensitive assets three to six months before midterm elections. If this pattern repeats, speculative assets, including cryptocurrencies, may experience systematic de-risking by mid-2026. This process is often driven more by risk management constraints than by fundamental factors, corroborating Galaxy's view that market movements in 2026 may be relatively subdued and volatile, rather than exhibiting clear trending fluctuations.

Bitcoin and Macro Liquidity: The AI Capital Expenditure Cycle

In addition to political factors, global liquidity dynamics—especially those related to artificial intelligence—constitute another key constraint. Major financial institutions predict that after several years of aggressive investment in data centers and supercomputing capabilities, global capital expenditures on AI infrastructure will peak in 2026.

Over the past two years, AI has absorbed a disproportionate amount of global venture capital, diverting funds that might have flowed into cryptocurrencies. As AI infrastructure matures, market focus is shifting from investment scale to monetization and returns.

The peak in capital expenditures itself is not necessarily a bad thing, but it often accompanies tightening liquidity. If revenue growth is insufficient to support previous expenditures, valuation compression and balance sheet pressures will follow, leading to a reallocation of funds back to cash and government bonds.

Bitcoin, Balance Sheets, and Correlation with Risk Assets

An important secondary effect of the AI investment boom is reflected in accounting. Large hardware investments in 2024 and 2025 will begin to generate significant depreciation expenses in 2026. Even though these are non-cash expenses, they can have a substantial impact on reported earnings and investor sentiment.

During periods of balance sheet pressure, correlations among risk assets tend to rise. Despite Bitcoin's unique historical context, it is unlikely to escape this trend. Unless Bitcoin is widely regarded as an asset capable of generating cash flow, its price will remain sensitive to overall liquidity tightening.

Bitcoin Price Expectations in the Predictive Market

These macro dynamics are increasingly reflected in the predictive market. On the Polymarket platform, influenced by the recent surge in volatility, the prices of Bitcoin price contracts for January have undergone significant adjustments. The probability of Bitcoin reaching $100,000 in January has dropped to around 15%, while the probabilities for higher targets like $105,000 or $110,000 are in the single digits.

Unlike sentiment surveys or analyst forecasts, predictive markets require participants to express their views under strict settlement rules. In this case, the outcome depends on whether Bitcoin reaches specific price levels (even if only briefly), which are calculated based on Binance BTC/USDT one-minute highs. This mechanism penalizes vague optimism and rewards realistic assessments of volatility and liquidity.

The current probability distribution indicates that traders expect the market to exhibit a range-bound movement, with declines expected to be greater than increases. This does not mean the market will enter a structural bear market, but it does reinforce the view that the market is more likely to consolidate rather than break out in early 2026.

2026 Bitcoin: From Narrative to Probability

Overall, macro signals, Galaxy's framework, and predictive market pricing create a coherent picture. The breakout of precious metal prices to new highs reflects risk hedging behavior at the end of the cycle. Bitcoin's price stabilizing below $100,000 indicates that market risk appetite is constrained. The predictive market also confirms that when forced to quantify expectations, traders believe the short-term upside potential is limited.

This convergence does not negate the long-term development thesis for Bitcoin but rather refines its timeline. Bitcoin appears to be entering a phase where patience, balance sheet awareness, and the macro environment are more important than narrative momentum. In this sense, the current environment may feel unsettling, but structurally, it aligns with Bitcoin's maturation as an asset class.

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