Author: Blockchain Knight
Pionex's holdings in Metaplanet increased by 11% from the end of November to the end of December, raising speculation about its outlook on the DAT strategy. However, this action is not a proactive bullish stance but rather a mechanical adjustment due to its index tracking.
Metaplanet accounts for less than 0.01% of its fund, and the change in position is due to the increase in index weight resulting from its market capitalization rise, unrelated to Pionex's attitude towards DAT assets.
What truly deserves attention is whether there has been a substantial improvement in the fundamentals driving DAT valuations, which needs to be analyzed from dimensions such as the core metric of market net asset value (mNAV) and the accumulation pace of Bitcoin.
mNAV is a key indicator for assessing the health of DAT. When this metric is greater than 1, companies can enhance shareholder value through issuing shares to buy coins; when it is less than 1, value is destroyed due to dilution, and the strategy must shift towards capital preservation.
As of mid-January, the mNAV performance of leading Bitcoin treasury operators shows significant divergence: Metaplanet is trading at a 1.37x premium and continued to increase its Bitcoin holdings on December 30, with the accumulation flywheel of equity issuance still effective.
Strategy has an mNAV of 0.93x; although it continues to accumulate BTC, short-term share issuance will lead to shareholder dilution. Semler's mNAV is as low as 0.88x, having paused coin purchases since October, shifting towards capital discipline management.
This divergence stems from the market's differentiated perception of the risks and operations of various companies. Metaplanet, being outside U.S. regulation and having a simple balance sheet, enjoys a valuation premium.
While Strategy has aggressively accumulated, its complex convertible bond structure and market skepticism towards catalysts have led to discounted trading.
In contrast, the valuations of targets like MARA and Coinbase are influenced by mining operations and non-crypto revenues, differing from the logic of pure DAT targets, which also confirms the limitations of viewing DAT as a homogeneous asset class.
The core logic of DAT relies on the flywheel effect of mNAV being greater than 1; when this metric falls below 1, the model of issuing shares to buy coins becomes ineffective.
Strategy's insistence on accumulation despite being discounted is a bet on a subsequent rebound in share prices or a consideration for long-term holdings.
Metaplanet, with its premium mNAV, can continue to expand its balance sheet without trade-offs; Semler's pause in coin purchases is a reasonable capital allocation choice under discounted conditions.
The current market does not reflect an overall recovery in the DAT industry; only a few targets demonstrate strength. A true industry rebound requires three conditions to be met:
- General expansion of mNAV among leading operators,
- Continued acceleration in Bitcoin accumulation pace,
- The equity market rewarding the DAT model with valuation.
However, currently, only a few operators like Metaplanet, which are outside U.S. jurisdiction and have healthy balance sheets, meet the premium conditions. The discount of Strategy and the accumulation pause of Semler reflect that the market has not yet formed a widespread recognition of the DAT model.
The Bitcoin treasury stock sector has shown a clear split pattern; industry trends are no longer driven by overall trends but rely more on the specific operational execution, regulatory environment, and balance sheet conditions of each company. The so-called comprehensive return of the DAT industry may not have arrived yet.
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