The price of Bitcoin has fallen below $92,000, and amidst the market's intense fluctuations, on-chain whales are writing entirely different scripts with hundreds of millions of dollars in positions, revealing that market divergence has reached an extreme.
The cryptocurrency market experienced a significant drop last night, with Bitcoin's price briefly falling below $92,000. Against this backdrop, several popular whales closely monitored by the market, as recorded by the on-chain data monitoring platform Coinbob, displayed starkly different trading strategies.
On one hand, major bullish holders like the "BTC OG Insider Whale" remained steadfast, showing composure. On the other hand, bearish players like the "Altcoin Air Force Leader" began to significantly close positions to take profits.
1. Market Fluctuations and Whale Ecology
● Recently, the cryptocurrency market has been highly volatile. Bitcoin's price has retreated from recent highs, briefly falling below the key psychological level of $92,000, impacting overall market sentiment.
● Market analysis data indicates that newly entered whale holders (UTXO holding time less than 155 days) are facing significant pressure. This group controls an increasing proportion of realized market value, but their average cost price is around $98,000, currently resulting in an overall unrealized loss of about $6 billion, making $85,000 a noteworthy risk point.
● In this market environment, tracking whale movements through on-chain address monitoring tools has become an important reference for many investors to gauge market sentiment and potential direction. The large-scale position adjustments by whales often provide deeper market signals than price fluctuations.
2. Bullish Whales Holding Their Ground
Amidst market turmoil, some major bulls have shown remarkable composure. The address known as the "BTC OG Insider Whale" is a typical representative.
● This whale account has an overall position size of about $874 million. Although unrealized profits have narrowed from a peak to $8.1 million, no position adjustments have been made. Its core holding is a long position in ETH, sized at about $713 million, with an average price of $3,161, currently still showing $5.5 million in unrealized profits.
● In addition to ETH, this address also holds long positions in BTC and SOL, and it is currently the largest long holder of ETH and SOL on the Hyperliquid trading platform. This "responding to change with constancy" stance indicates its continued confidence in the market's future.
Another noteworthy bullish account, "CZ Counterparty", finds itself in a more complex situation.
● This account has an overall unrealized loss of $12 million, primarily from a long position in XRP, sized at $75.6 million, with an unrealized loss of $13.3 million.
● Nevertheless, its long position in ETH still maintains $1.4 million in unrealized profits, with the total account position size around $264 million. Notably, it remains the largest long holder of XRP and the second-largest long holder of ETH on Hyperliquid, demonstrating a determination to maintain a bullish stance despite incurring losses.
3. Aggressive Shift to Short and Hedging
● In stark contrast to the steadfast bulls, a group of whales is actively adjusting positions, even turning to shorting. According to AiCoin data, during a specific time frame on January 20, some on-chain whales frequently adjusted positions between long and short.
● One whale closed a long position of 242 BTC, resulting in a loss of $1.042 million; while an address marked as "Lightning Reverse" established a complex hedging position, simultaneously going long on 99.8 BTC and shorting 6,355 ETH.
● More aggressive shorting actions came from a whale labeled "20 Million Bandwidth Hunter," which shorted 8,383 XMR with 5x leverage, becoming the largest short address for XMR on-chain.
● Another address, "Strategy Counterparty," quickly turned to shorting after closing long positions in BTC and ETH (total loss of $324,000): it opened a 5x leveraged short on 73,000 DASH, becoming the largest short for DASH on-chain, while also establishing a short position of 2,078.55 BTC with up to 20x leverage.
4. Profit Taking in the Bearish Camp
In the bearish camp, some early players have begun to reap substantial profits and take partial profits. The address known as the "Largest Short for ZEC" has been continuously closing MON short positions to lock in profits.
● Its MON short position has decreased from a high of $1.4 million, but unrealized profits remain as high as $560,000, with a return rate of 120%. This address currently holds a total short position of about $166 million, maintaining its status as the largest short holder of ETH on-chain.
● The "Altcoin Air Force Leader" is another successful executor of a short strategy. This account's overall unrealized profits have expanded to $11.05 million, as it continued to close PUMP and MET short positions during last night's market fluctuations.
● Currently, its PUMP short position has decreased to $4.7 million, with the total short position of the entire account around $48.1 million. Notably, this address maintains targeted short positions against the Solana ecosystem, holding 10x leveraged PUMP shorts and 3x leveraged MET shorts, while also holding short positions in meme coins like PEPE.
Despite incurring an unrealized loss of $1.74 million due to counter-trend shorting on LIT, its cumulative profit for the year has reached $80 million, demonstrating the effectiveness of the short strategy.
Overview of Major Whale Positions:
5. Heavy Losses and Reflections of Leveraged Traders
In the midst of the market's intense fluctuations, high-leverage traders have faced immense pressure. The experience of the swing trader "pension-usdt.eth" is particularly typical.
● This address closed a long position in ETH for a profit of $740,000 on January 16, then quickly turned and opened a 3x leveraged long position in BTC at an average price of $95,614. As Bitcoin's price fell below $92,000, this position, sized at about $91.53 million, has incurred an unrealized loss of $4.07 million.
● This whale, known for short-term swing trading, had previously accumulated profits exceeding $21 million since October, with an average holding time of only 23 hours. However, the timing of the switch from ETH to BTC seems to have been off, highlighting that even experienced traders face significant risks when leveraging.
● This case also reflects a structural change in the current market: with the rise of on-chain trading platforms like Hyperliquid, more professional traders are shifting from traditional exchanges to these platforms, which are changing the market trading landscape by offering higher leverage and on-chain execution advantages.
6. Risk Aversion Leading to Alternative Allocations
In the context of increasing volatility in the cryptocurrency market, some funds have begun to seek traditional safe-haven assets. The address known as the "Largest Long for On-Chain Gold" represents this trend.
● This address holds a long position in PAXG (on-chain gold) with 5x leverage, sized at about $702,000, currently showing unrealized profits of $400,000, with a return rate of 23%. Moreover, this trader's strategy is more comprehensive, as it also holds multiple long positions in on-chain stock assets, with a total related holding of about $1.8 million.
Another address, "Heavily Invested in Precious Metals," has constructed a more systematic precious metals investment portfolio. This address recently established a new 5x leveraged long position in SILVER (silver-mapped contract), sized at about $940,000.
● Combined with its existing gold holdings, this address has a total holding value in precious metals of about $564,000, with an overall leverage of about 5.2 times, achieving an investment return rate of 68.15%, and monthly profits of $380,000. This operation of simultaneously going long on precious metals and U.S. tech stocks reflects a comprehensive bullish strategy that can profit regardless of whether the market trends towards risk aversion or risk appetite.
The significant drop in the crypto market last night acted like a prism, reflecting the vastly different faces of the whales. From the unwavering $874 million position of the "BTC OG Insider Whale" to the decisive profit-taking of the "Altcoin Air Force Leader," which locked in $11.05 million in profits.
From the predicament of "pension-usdt.eth," which faced a $4.07 million unrealized loss due to 3x leverage, to the calm of the "Largest Long for On-Chain Gold," which achieved a 23% return on PAXG. In the midst of market fluctuations, some see risk, while others see opportunity, and the true "insight" may be hidden in the positions written in real money by these whales.
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