🧐 Zama is about to start｜Is the market's short-term premium for Zama too conservative? At what price will everyone participate in the public offering?

Zama @zama, as the hottest public offering currently, has seen a decline in pre-market prices today due to a not-so-great overall market situation.

Meanwhile, the predicted price on Polymarket seems to stabilize around 600 million;

I just checked, and the price of $ZAMA OG NFT has doubled from yesterday to now. I wonder if there are any empowering factors or other benefits?

I previously mentioned that Zama is one of the projects I am currently willing to put on my "long-term observation list";

Beyond the financing background and popularity, the potential for technical extensibility may be limitless: the problem it addresses, once established, has a hard-to-calculate ceiling.

1️⃣ First, let's talk about the auction method this time:

According to previous announcements, this Token launch will use its own confidential technology for a sealed-bid Dutch auction, utilizing their own privacy capabilities.

To prevent bots and front-running, the floor price is $0.005 (FDV 55 million), bids are confidential; during bidding, your bid is public, but the number of bids is confidential.

At the most critical issuance point, using the product itself to validate the narrative is quite bold;

2️⃣ Next, let's look at the background:

In March 2024, it raised $73 million in Series A, led by Multicoin Capital and Protocol Labs;

In June 2025, it raised an additional $57 million in Series B, led by Blockchange and Pantera,

Total funding of over $150 million, with a valuation exceeding $1 billion, becoming the first unicorn project in FHE. The current pricing anchor given by the prediction market is around $600M FDV.

One can only say it is fairly standard and somewhat conservative.

3️⃣ My intuitive judgment is:

Looking at the current price, the auction's first-day pricing will likely fluctuate around $500M–$700M. Based on the current pre-market, I estimate this price can be achieved.

There will be a rebound later, but I feel the price will stabilize in the $0.05-0.10 range in the short term, especially just after TGE, where volatility may be significant.

Because the public offering floor is $0.005, and the private valuation is $1B, the discount has attracted many people, but market sentiment is low, and the privacy meta is not as hot anymore.

Looking further ahead to the entire year of 2026, I believe the key variable is the adoption rate of FHE: Zama's most direct distinction is that it adds "privacy capabilities" to existing applications on public chains while retaining composability. If widely adopted, FDV could push to $1B-$2B.

In summary, if the bear market continues, this may be underestimated;

But if the demand for privacy surges, it may be overestimated; we can only watch and see.

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