Recently, I discussed this issue with a group of traditional investors.

Whether to have children, and how many, is not fundamentally about liking children, but rather a very realistic model. It depends on what asset stage the family is in, what core constraints they face, and what function they assign to children (emotional, structural, cash flow, retirement, relationships).

Once financial freedom is sufficient, having children becomes more like a structural hedge—continuity of the family, inheritance arrangements, stability of identity and relationship networks, and even turning life's uncertainties into manageable long-term projects. The most significant change at this stage is not that people are more willing to have children, but that resource constraints essentially disappear. There is no worry about having children, no concern about raising them, and certainly no fear of not having anyone to help. Fertility decisions are often driven by who holds the resources and the family goals.

When wealth is relatively abundant, having children enters a calculation phase, where the core issues are certainty and time costs. Many families at this stage tend to prefer two children, not because they like them more, but because they can already bear the structural benefits brought by a second child, while also creating an educational path as a system. Whether or not to have children often depends on who bears the greatest opportunity cost, which is usually women.

When families are still striving for assets, children are more like concentrated investments of cash flow and attention. The cost-effectiveness of having one child is the highest because the family's core constraint is insufficient money, limited time, and not enough energy to spread around. Resources need to be concentrated to ensure quality. Families at this stage generally focus on having one child, and only those with particularly favorable conditions or strong support systems will consider a second child, but a second child usually means a significant sacrifice in the speed of asset accumulation.

When families are still calculating the costs of daily necessities, most women are unwilling to have children because childbirth is seen as a high-risk project, involving risks to health, income, relationships, and a sharp decline in quality of life. Interestingly, at this stage, some people may view childbirth as a form of "economic hedging," with expectations for retirement, family mutual support, or even betting on a more controllable family structure in an uncertain life. In this case, childbirth is both a risk and a hedge, and those with higher education levels often face higher opportunity costs, making them more cautious about having children.

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