Original Author: Garrett

Original Translation: Saoirse, Foresight News

Recently, some analysts have been comparing the current price trend of Bitcoin with that of 2022.

Indeed, the short-term price movements of both may appear somewhat similar. However, from a long-term perspective, this comparison is completely absurd.

Whether considering long-term price patterns, macroeconomic backgrounds, or the composition of investors and supply/demand holding structures, there are fundamental differences in the underlying logic of the two.

A Completely Opposite Macroeconomic Background

In March 2022, the U.S. was mired in high inflation and an interest rate hike cycle, driven by:

• Excess liquidity during the COVID-19 pandemic;
• The chain reaction triggered by the Ukraine crisis, which further pushed inflation significantly higher.

At that time, risk-free interest rates continued to rise, liquidity was systematically withdrawn, and the financial environment tightened continuously.

In such an environment, the primary goal of capital is to avoid risk. The Bitcoin trend we observed was essentially a high-level distribution pattern during a tightening cycle.

The current macro environment is exactly the opposite:

• The situation in the Ukraine conflict is gradually easing (partly due to U.S. efforts to reduce inflation and lower interest rates);
• The Consumer Price Index (CPI) and U.S. risk-free interest rates are both on a downward trend;
• More importantly, the AI technology revolution significantly increases the likelihood of the economy entering a long-term deflationary cycle. Therefore, from a larger cycle perspective, interest rates have entered a phase of reduction;
• Central banks around the world are re-injecting liquidity into the financial system;
• This means that capital currently exhibits a "risk appetite" characteristic.

From the chart below, it can be seen that since 2020, Bitcoin has shown a clear negative correlation with CPI — during inflationary periods, Bitcoin tends to decline; while during periods of slowing inflation, Bitcoin tends to rise.

In the context of an AI-driven technological revolution, long-term deflation is a high-probability event — Elon Musk also agrees with this view, further validating our argument.

From another chart below, it can also be observed that since 2020, Bitcoin has had a strong correlation with the U.S. liquidity index (excluding data deviations caused by ETF inflows in 2024). Currently, the U.S. liquidity index has broken through the short-term (white line) and long-term (red line) downward trend lines — a new upward trend is beginning to emerge.

Dramatically Different Technical Structures

• 2021-2022: The weekly chart exhibited an "M top" structure, which is typically associated with long-cycle market tops and will suppress price movements for an extended period.
• 2025 (affecting early 2026 trends): The weekly chart has broken below the rising channel. Analyzing from a probabilistic perspective, this is more likely a "bear trap" before a rebound back to the channel.

Of course, we cannot completely rule out the possibility of the current trend evolving into a continuation of the 2022-style bear market. However, it is important to note that the $80,850-$62,000 range has experienced significant consolidation and chip exchange.

This prior chip absorption process provides a far better risk-reward ratio for bullish positions — the upside potential significantly outweighs the downside risk.

What Conditions Must Be Met to Reproduce a 2022-Style Bear Market?

To reproduce a bear market like that of 2022, the following hard conditions must be met:

• A new round of inflation shock occurs, or a significant geopolitical crisis comparable to that of 2022;
• Central banks around the world restart interest rate hikes or resume quantitative tightening (QT) policies;
• Bitcoin's price shows a decisive and sustained drop below the $80,850 mark.

Until all these conditions are met, claiming that the market has entered a structural bear market is premature and speculative, rather than a conclusion based on rational analysis.

Significantly Different Investor Structures

• 2020-2022: The market was dominated by retail investors, with limited institutional participation, especially from long-term allocation institutions.
• Since 2023: The introduction of Bitcoin ETFs has brought in "structural long-term holders," effectively locking up some Bitcoin supply, significantly reducing trading activity, and markedly lowering volatility.

In 2023, both from a macroeconomic perspective and a quantitative analysis perspective, it marks a structural turning point for Bitcoin as an asset.

The volatility range of Bitcoin has also undergone a fundamental change:

• Historical volatility: 80%-150%
• Current volatility: 30%-60%

This change indicates that the asset characteristics of Bitcoin have fundamentally altered.

Core Structural Differences (Current vs. 2022)

The biggest difference in the structure of Bitcoin investors between early 2026 and 2022 is that the market has shifted from "retail-dominated, high-leverage speculation" to "institution-dominated, structural long-term holding."

In 2022, Bitcoin experienced a typical "crypto-native bear market," triggered by panic selling from retail investors and a chain of leveraged liquidations.

Now, Bitcoin has entered a much more mature "institutional era," characterized by:

• Stable underlying demand
• Some supply being locked up long-term
• Volatility reaching institutional levels

Below is a core comparison made by Grok based on on-chain data (such as Glassnode, Chainalysis) and institutional reports (such as Grayscale, Bitwise, State Street) from mid-January 2026 (when Bitcoin's price was in the $90,000 - $95,000 range):

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