Cryptocurrency News
January 20th Highlights:
1. BitMine has staked another 86,848 ETH, worth $279.4 million.
2. Today's CME "Federal Reserve Watch" data: The probability of maintaining interest rates unchanged in January is 95%.
3. Arkham analysts: Addresses suspected to be related to Bhutan's Druk Holdings are engaging in high-leverage long positions on ETH.
4. The yield on 40-year Japanese government bonds has surpassed 4% for the first time since its introduction in 2007.
5. The independence of the Federal Reserve is facing challenges, with Powell reportedly set to appear in support of Cook.
Trading Insights
. Never trade with high leverage; a tenfold leverage on Bitcoin is sufficient. Many newcomers cannot control themselves; no matter how good their skills are, there are times when things go wrong. The cryptocurrency market is inherently high-risk, and using 100x leverage is even riskier, not to mention the transaction fees.
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Below are the actual trades from the Big White Community's trading group this week. Congratulations to those who followed along. If your trades are not going well, you can come and test the waters.
The data is real, and each trade has a screenshot from when it was issued.
**Search for the public account: *Big White Talks Coins*
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BTC
Analysis
One reason for the changes on Monday is that CME operates in the Asian time zone, and Asian institutions assess the Greenland tariffs during their working hours. If they believe it will cause panic in the risk markets, they will act in advance. Therefore, we can see that even though the U.S. stock market is closed, CME futures still fell by 1%, which more represents the views of Asian investors on the Greenland tariffs.
Interestingly, on Monday night, although the U.S. stock market was closed, the price of $BTC hardly fluctuated during U.S. market hours. This is because U.S. institutions are either still enjoying a three-day holiday or the current volatility is not enough to elicit a larger reaction from them. Essentially, as Wu said, the main liquidity in the cryptocurrency market still comes from the U.S. market, or from U.S. institutions.
As long as institutions are not working, it is actually very difficult for "retail investors" in the cryptocurrency space to significantly drive Bitcoin's price changes. This also includes many actual holders who are in a long-term holding state for BTC, so by Tuesday night, we could clearly see changes from U.S. institutions.
A pullback to around 91088-90282 can be a good entry point for long positions, with a rebound target of 94700-97400.
ETH
Analysis
In the last three months, net inflows into U.S. ETFs have exceeded $400 billion. Much of the ETF funding comes from 401k plans, pensions, advisory models, target date funds, and rebalancing. These funds do not consider whether something is "expensive" or "cheap," but rather buy when they feel it is the right time, and the judgment to buy is based on the belief that a trend is already occurring.
Although this money has entered U.S. stock ETFs, it does not mean that it averages buying the entire market; it will ultimately flow back more to the assets with the largest index weights, especially large-cap and tech-heavy assets. This generally indicates that these funds see a soft landing for the U.S. economy, expectations of interest rate cuts, narratives around AI productivity, cash migrating from short-term debt, and overseas funds chasing dollar assets.
In simpler terms, while many still believe we are in a bear market, over $400 billion has already started to buy the dip. They are willing to believe that the trend will be better by 2026.
A pullback to around 3157-3133 can be a good entry point for long positions, with a rebound target of around 3245.
Disclaimer: The above content is purely personal opinion and for reference only! It does not constitute specific operational advice and does not bear legal responsibility. Market conditions change rapidly, and the article may have a certain lag. If you have any questions, feel free to consult.
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