Qinglan Crypto Class is starting! BTC's four cycles + dual perspectives from news, guiding you to step in sync with the crypto market rhythm.
Multi-Cycle Technical Analysis
Daily Chart (Long-Term Trend): The trend is weakening, and key levels have been lost. On the daily level, the price (around 92500) has already fallen below the MA20 (around 92600), which is a mid-term lifeline. After a death cross at a high position, the MACD's red bars have turned green, which is a typical signal of weakening after a top divergence. The RSI is hovering around 50, indicating a temporary balance between bulls and bears, but leaning bearish. The key support on the daily level has shifted down to the 90000-91000 area, which is a previous dense trading zone and a psychological level.
4-Hour Chart (Mid-Term Swing): Bears dominate, and rebounds are weak. The 4-hour chart shows that the price is being suppressed by all major moving averages (MA5, MA10, MA20), forming a typical bearish arrangement. The MACD fast and slow lines are below the zero axis; although the green bars have shortened, the overall momentum is still downward. Recent candlesticks have been oscillating around 92500, but each rebound appears "weak," with no effective increase in trading volume, indicating that the bulls' willingness to counterattack is not strong. Resistance is seen in the 93500-94000 area.
1-Hour Chart (Short-Term Rhythm): Downward continuation, weak oscillation. Structurally on the 1-hour chart, after rebounding to 93400 early yesterday morning, the price has been oscillating downward. The price is firmly suppressed by MA5 and MA10. The MACD is consolidating below the zero axis, with an unclear direction, but it belongs to a weak area of consolidation. This indicates that there is a divergence between bulls and bears at the current position (around 92500), but the bears have a slight upper hand, resembling a continuation platform after a decline.
15-Minute Chart (Ultra-Short-Term Direction): Range trading, seeking direction. The 15-minute chart shows that the price has formed a small box between 92300 and 92800. The RSI oscillates between 40-55, and the MACD oscillates around the zero axis. This is a typical consolidation pattern, indicating that both bulls and bears are evenly matched in the ultra-short term, waiting for a larger signal to break the deadlock.
Resonance Between News and Technicals
From the news perspective, there are several points we need to pay special attention to:
Whale Movements and Market Sentiment: There was news early in the morning stating that "a sleeping whale transferred 909 BTC after 13 years." Although the scale is not huge, any whale movement at this sensitive position will heighten market caution. Qinglan's morning report also reminded that "after a whale sold 500 million overnight, they are closely watching 92300 in the morning," which aligns closely with the support level we see technically.
Macroeconomic and Financial Aspects: On one hand, the Federal Reserve announced an injection of $55.3 billion in liquidity, and US stock ETF inflows hit a record, which is a potential macro positive. On the other hand, Bitcoin ETFs saw a net outflow of nearly $400 million in a single day, indicating that some short-term profit-taking or risk-averse funds are withdrawing. This divergence of "macro warmth, crypto coldness" explains why BTC's response to liquidity is lagging and is still dominated by its own technical structure and the flow of funds in the market.
Industry Competition and Hash Rate: AI data centers are competing for power resources, causing Bitcoin's hash rate to drop below 1 EH/s. While this does not directly affect short-term prices, it reflects changes in the mining fundamentals, which may impact network security and cost structure in the long run, representing a bearish background noise.
Analyst Opinions: Multiple market analyses (including Qinglan's views) point to "bulls should not hold on stubbornly," and "the liquidation heat map reveals key support around $90,000." These consistent viewpoints will influence market participants' psychological expectations, creating a self-fulfilling pressure.
Comprehensive Forecast and Trading Ideas
Combining the cycles and news, the conclusion is clear:
Trend Direction: The mid to long-term (daily, 4-hour) trend has shifted to a bearish consolidation; the short-term (1-hour, 15-minute) is in a weak consolidation after a decline.
Key Levels: Strong resistance above is in the 93500-94000 area, where the 4-hour moving averages are suppressing and a previous small platform exists. Key support below is in the 92300-92500 range (the lower edge of the 15-minute box and psychological level), with core support at 90000-91000 (daily level).
Market State: Market sentiment is cautious, with insufficient confidence from bulls and weak rebounds. The whale movements and ETF fund outflows in the news resonate with the technical breakdown, reinforcing the bearish atmosphere.
Therefore, our forecast is: After the current consolidation, there is a high possibility of breaking down below the 92300 support, further testing the 90000-91000 area. Unless there is a strong surge with increased volume that stabilizes above 94000, the short-term weak pattern is unlikely to change.
Trading Ideas (for reference only):
Aggressive Short: You can consider lightly shorting when the price rebounds to the 93000-93300 area and shows signs of stagnation (such as long upper shadows, volume-price divergence), with a stop loss above 93800, targeting 91800 and 91000.
Conservative Wait-and-See: Wait for the price to clearly choose a direction. If it effectively breaks below 92300 (for example, if the 15-minute closing price is below this level and accompanied by increased volume), consider shorting, targeting 91000. If there is an unexpected breakout with volume stabilizing above 93500, then shorts should exit and observe whether the trend changes.
Long Strategy: In the current environment, this is a counter-trend operation with high risk. It is only suitable for short-term experts to lightly bet on a rebound in the strong support area of 90000-91000 after a clear reversal signal (such as a long lower shadow, bullish engulfing) appears, and strict stop losses must be set.
Remember, in the early stages of a weakening trend, do not easily "catch falling knives." Patience is more important than gold.
More quantitative breakdowns of how real-time news affects market sentiment have been updated in my Qinglan Crypto Class, qinglan.org.
Finally, let me leave you with a golden quote: "The market will not change direction because of your position; mature traders only befriend trends, not become slaves to emotions." See you in the market!
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