On Monday, the reaction was not very strong because the US stock market was closed. In the futures market, Asian investors have started to lose patience, with a drop of about 1% on Monday. In the US, the ongoing tariff dispute over Greenland continues to escalate, with Trump insisting that if Greenland is not given, tariffs will definitely be increased. This has led one of the three major rating agencies, Fitch, to issue a warning that the threat of Greenland tariffs is raising geopolitical risks.
On Tuesday, after the US stock market opens, it is uncertain whether there will be further panic. Similarly, we will first observe the reactions of Asian investors in the morning and then look at the reactions of European and American investors in the evening. However, given the current escalating tensions, the risk market does not seem very optimistic. The biggest hope now lies in whether the US Supreme Court will overturn Trump's tariffs under the IEEPA; if it does, this matter will come to an end.
But if Trump really implements these tariffs, not only will inflation in the US be affected, but the European economy will also face a downturn, and the US will not fare well either. The economic cost to the US will be even greater. If tariffs rise further, the financial burden on American households will also increase. Want to lower interest rates by 2026? Whoever sits in the position of Federal Reserve Chairman will not dare to lower rates easily.
Looking at Bitcoin's data, the trading volume on Monday was quite high for a holiday. Based on the data, it is highly likely that Asian institutions are not optimistic about the risk market's trends, showing signs of new sell-offs. However, the sell-offs are still mainly from short-term investors, concentrated around a holding cost of $95,000, while sell-offs at other price levels can be ignored.
The current chip structure is still relatively normal, with no signs of panic selling observed. Most investors remain calm, but after the US stock market opens on Tuesday, a new wave of sell-offs may occur.
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