Original Title: "Predicting the True and False Betting Gods of the Market: A 8300x Miracle of Fraud; Manipulating Prices to Snatch $230,000"
Original Author: Wenser, Odaily Planet Daily
As a popular track that has continued to rise since the beginning of the year, the prediction market is not short of wealth creation miracles.
But behind the miracles, whether they are real spectacles achieved through timely judgment and agile maneuvers, or false hype created by human deception and confusion, requires the audience to have a discerning eye to tell the truth from the falsehood. Recently, a Polymarket trader on X claimed to have achieved an "8300x miracle," betting from a $12 principal to over $100,000, but was soon exposed for multiple account fraud and traffic manipulation; another trader manipulated the price of XRP, snatching $230,000 in the "15-minute prediction of price fluctuations" section, achieving a one-sided harvest from betting robots on Polymarket.
On the stage of betting on both sides, some want to dance gracefully with lies, while others exploit loopholes in the rules to seize wealth. In the gamble of right and wrong, there is no invincible strategy, only flexible tactics.
From $12 to $100,000: The 8300x Miracle of Polymarket vs. Trader Fraud Scheme
On January 16, trader ascetic posted that by "going all in on short-term Bitcoin fluctuations," he doubled his principal 16 times in a row, ultimately achieving a milestone profit from $12 to $100,000. He emphasized that during the betting process, he "specifically shared his betting strategy and the reasons behind it."
He then shared his Polymarket account link in the comments and stated that such a wealth creation miracle could only be performed on Polymarket.
The comments section soon turned into a "blood-boosted celebration of Polymarket community members," with countless people congratulating him, and even Polymarket's global growth head LeGate commented: "Congratulations, brother! I think you truly deserve it! Congratulations on earning the PolymarketTrade badge!" (This account is for the active trader community on Polymarket)
If you think this would be a typical "get-rich-quick bragging tweet," then you might underestimate the dramatic nature of the situation.
Soon, the direction of this "8300x return miracle on Polymarket" took a sharp turn.
From Betting Miracle to Fraud Scheme: 8300x Return Data Questioned
On January 16, a trader named Moses, claiming to be "ranked 515th in Polymarket trading for 2025," questioned the account data of trader ascetic, stating: "Have you ever wondered why his account balance in the first post was $3,000? The answer is simple: he operates a large 'witch farm.' He did not start from $12, but from hundreds of accounts, each investing $10 to $20. Once one of the accounts reached $2,900, he began posting. Since then, he made seven trades, all winning.
But please note, he bet all his funds each time. A real trader would not do this. He is just chasing fame and fortune, using any means necessary to achieve his goals.
Due to insufficient trading volume, he even seems to have used other accounts for fake trades to achieve the price he wanted.
Before blindly believing in "internet celebrities," be sure to investigate on your own. Attached are images showing some of his failed witch accounts, which made at most $1,000.
Moses later added in the comments that all accounts were created seven months ago and continuously participated in random markets, with all accounts starting the same challenge on the same day two months ago. The entire claim of "from $10 to $100,000" is false!
Not only that, he also posted screenshots and links to the corresponding witch account homepages:
· Account One: https://polymarket.com/@brockmatthew;
· Account Two: https://polymarket.com/@wellscandice;
· Account Three: https://polymarket.com/@jbryan.
Although ascetic later responded in the comments that the wallets and accounts mentioned by Moses were unrelated to him, and some members of the ZSC DAO (a Polymarket trader community) supported him, the connections between the bot replies in ascetic's previous tweets and accounts with similar behavioral patterns to his Polymarket account still significantly undermined the credibility of this "8300x return miracle."
Some commenters also mentioned that it was hard to understand why he would do this, as "seven consecutive successful bets" is already an impressive feat; but others pointed out that this was still a "robot-style wide-net game."
Of course, it is somewhat ironic that Moses's personal profile also states his "journey from $1 to $1 million" tag; whether it is a real achievement or a personal goal, we cannot know.
Compared to the hard-to-judge ascetic, the following case of a trader who made $230,000 profit through price manipulation in the XRP "15-minute price fluctuation betting market" may be more worthy of study for whale players.
Trader Uses Binance Spot to Reverse Harvest Prediction Market: $1 Million Principal Snatches $230,000 Profit
On January 18, Polymarket trader PredictTrader revealed a trading operation comparable to a dramatic version of "The Wolf of Wall Street" — by harvesting liquidity from trading robots, he earned $233,000 in just a few hours without attracting large-scale market attention.
The trader, named a4385, chose his timing very cleverly — it was Saturday night, when market liquidity was low, and the liquidity on the Binance spot order book was also quite average.
In the "XRP Price Fluctuation — January 17, Eastern Time 12:45-1:00 PM" trade, he bought a large amount of "up" chips.
His trading counterpart was the common "personal market maker" on Polymarket — various trading robots. Ten minutes into the trade, XRP had dropped about 0.3% from the opening price, but he had pushed the "up" shares to 70%. The trading robots saw a profit opportunity but fell into the "price trap" set by the trader, selling him more "up" chips.
Ultimately, the trader bought $77,000 worth of "up" chips at an average price of 48%.
Just two minutes before the settlement of the betting event, a wallet on Binance bought about $1 million worth of XRP spot, pushing its price up about 0.5%; seconds after the betting event settled, this $1 million spot was quickly sold.
In other words, the cost of this price manipulation event was — about 0.25% of unilateral trading slippage + fees.
Using a Binance VIP level 4 account (0.06%) (which is easy to obtain) and 0.25% of two-way slippage, the total cost was about $6,200, and the actual operational cost could be even lower. By repeatedly performing the same operation and taking advantage of the weekend's low liquidity, the trader cleared out funds from multiple robot wallets.
Some robots were shut down in time, while others reacted too slowly, losing all their funds — including @aleksandmoney, which lost its entire year's profit (about $160,000).
a4385 Polymarket account link: https://polymarket.com/profile/0x506bce138df20695c03cd5a59a937499fb00b0fe
In conclusion, I hope that traders betting on both sides in the prediction market can discern fact from appearance. Sometimes, the truth is not always objective, while the standards and rules determined by the platform are subjectively defined.
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