Author: Naga Avan-Nomayo
Abstract
Kraken believes that the next phase of cryptocurrency in 2026 will no longer be driven by speculation, but rather by market structure, as institutional tools reshape Bitcoin's liquidity and price discovery mechanisms.
Meanwhile, Ark Invest's Cathie Wood points out that the surge in gold prices in 2025 and the decline in Bitcoin prices indicate that macro pressures have been reallocating capital—even as Bitcoin's supply remains structurally constrained.
As we enter 2026, the crypto market is undergoing an "internal upgrade"—prices may not soar as they once did, but the market's "underlying structure" is undergoing profound changes. According to the latest annual outlook released by the cryptocurrency exchange Kraken, this change primarily stems from two aspects: first, macroeconomic uncertainty (such as inflation, interest rates, and economic slowdown), and second, an increasing amount of institutional capital beginning to dominate Bitcoin's trends.
Kraken's economist Thomas Perfumo notes that while Bitcoin remains a "barometer" for measuring market risk sentiment, the forces driving prices have changed. In the past, retail investors drove the market; now, it is the spot Bitcoin ETFs listed in the U.S. and some corporate treasuries (like companies such as MicroStrategy that treat Bitcoin as a corporate asset) that are influencing the market.
For example, in 2025, these institutional channels purchased nearly $44 billion worth of Bitcoin, yet the price of Bitcoin did not rise significantly, even becoming somewhat "disappointing." Why? Because many long-term Bitcoin holders (like early investors) took the opportunity to sell their coins, offsetting the upward pressure from new funds. The result is: money came in, but prices did not soar—which is very different from the past situation where "any influx of funds would lead to a surge."
Perfumo believes that the macro environment is now the key determinant of market direction. The global economic slowdown, persistent inflation, and a slower pace of central bank interest rate cuts are all putting pressure on risk assets (including cryptocurrencies). He also warns: apparent calm does not mean safety; if market liquidity suddenly tightens (for example, if banks or institutions withdraw funds), volatility could suddenly explode.
Stablecoins and Regulation: The Two New Pillars of 2026
In addition to institutional capital, Kraken also highlights two key trends:
Stablecoins are becoming increasingly important: Stablecoins like USDT and USDC, which are pegged to the dollar, have reached historic highs in circulation. They are not only a medium of exchange but have also become the "blood" of on-chain liquidity.
U.S. regulation is accelerating: Legislation like the GENIUS Act regarding stablecoins, as well as broader reforms in the crypto market rules. These policies will determine "how money enters the blockchain" and "where innovation occurs" in the future.
However, this institutional driving force may also encounter bottlenecks. The inflow of funds into Bitcoin ETFs in 2025 has already slowed compared to 2024; and companies that rely on issuing stock to raise funds for Bitcoin purchases are now facing reduced stock price premiums, making financing more difficult. Without a clear "market optimism" (risk-on), it will be hard for them to spark another major rally.
Bitcoin is not gold, but it can help you diversify risk
Famous investor Cathie Wood also expressed similar views in her 2026 outlook. She pointed out that gold rose by 65% in 2025, while Bitcoin fell by 6%. But don't forget, gold can be continuously mined, while Bitcoin's total supply will always be capped at 21 million—making its supply scarcer.
More importantly, Bitcoin has a very low correlation with other mainstream assets (like stocks and bonds). Wood even stated: "The correlation between Bitcoin and gold is lower than the correlation between the S&P 500 index and bonds." This means that if you want your portfolio to be more stable during turbulent times while pursuing higher returns, Bitcoin is actually a good "risk diversification tool."
Will it rise to $100,000 next?
For short-term traders, the most pressing question is: Is Bitcoin's recent surge towards $100,000 a genuine breakthrough, or just a temporary pause?
YouHodler's market director Ruslan Lienkha believes that Bitcoin is currently clearly undervalued compared to U.S. stocks. He predicts that the price will either pull back to around $90,000 to test support or continue to push towards $100,000—this price point will become the next key threshold.
Not just Bitcoin, the entire industry is evolving
Kraken also mentions that the bigger opportunities in 2026 may not lie in Bitcoin itself, but in asset tokenization and DeFi (decentralized finance). For instance, turning real estate, bonds, or even stocks of large companies like Apple or Microsoft into digital tokens on the blockchain. Standard Chartered Bank also sees potential in this area, particularly believing that Ethereum will benefit the most, as many institutions are moving real-world assets onto Ethereum.
In the past year, the growth of such tokenized assets has been very rapid. If in the future, even ordinary people can buy and sell "tokenized U.S. stocks" through their phones, it will create a whole new global demand and on-chain trading activity.
In summary:
The crypto market in 2026 may no longer be the "wild boom and bust" cycles you are familiar with, but rather a "stress test" jointly dominated by macroeconomics, institutional behavior, and regulatory frameworks. Who is buying, how money enters, and how rules are set—these changes at the level of "underlying rules" may be more important than the price itself.
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