Written by: Wu Says Blockchain

On January 14, Binance founder CZ (Changpeng Zhao) held a Chinese AMA to communicate with the community, delving into the future trends of Bitcoin and the cryptocurrency market, particularly the possibility of a super cycle and investment strategies for the industry. He emphasized the impact of U.S. policies on the market, especially in the intertwining of the stock market and cryptocurrencies. He also shared insights on building the crypto community, meme coins, and the trend towards decentralization, as well as the importance of compliance in the crypto industry. Additionally, CZ expressed optimism about the potential of future prediction markets and AI code generation, while also offering advice to investors, especially novice traders, stressing the importance of risk control and a long-term perspective.

The content reflects the guest's personal views and does not represent Wu Says' views. The audio transcription was completed by GPT and may contain errors. Please listen to the complete podcast on Xiaoyuzhou, YT, etc.

Are there better methods for user expansion?

CZ: I think it depends on each person's situation. If your circle is deeply embedded in academia, business, or education, the methods will vary across different circles. I believe the best way is for everyone to educate the entire industry in their own way; if everyone contributes a little, the collective impact will grow, and ultimately, the number of users will increase.

Has the super cycle already begun, and will 2026 be a new starting point?

CZ: When I talk about a super cycle, I refer to Bitcoin's original four-year cycle, which has been very evident historically. According to historical cycles, this year might be a bear market because 2020 and 2021 were bear markets, while 2017 was a bull market, with most subsequent years being bear markets.

So, when I mention a super cycle or super bull market, it is usually calculated annually. This year, I think the situation might be different. From a relatively simple logic perspective, although Bitcoin has a four-year cycle, this year could be different. The most likely scenario is that the policies currently being introduced in the U.S. are very friendly to Bitcoin, and the U.S. president may implement a series of policies this year to improve stock market performance as they approach midterm elections.

If the U.S. stock market performs better, the strength of the stock market may surpass the traditional four-year cycle of Bitcoin or digital currencies. I think the probability of this is quite high, but of course, it could also be wrong. So, there’s no need to get too hung up on what I said. This is my personal view. By the way, South Korea has just lifted restrictions on listed companies engaging in cryptocurrency trading, which is also a long-term positive trend for the entire industry. My perspective is that I tend to see the positive side, so I am very optimistic about the future.

What is the outlook for prediction markets in 2026?

CZ: I believe that prediction markets should be a significant track in the long term, that’s my personal view. However, it’s hard to judge how big or small this track will be at this point. Some people may exaggerate. In the short term, it’s still very difficult to predict who will win or lose. The prediction market track is still very new, with projects like Kalshi and Polymarket being the main players. Kalshi hasn’t really delved into the crypto space itself, while Polymarket became well-known during the last major election but has also faced some setbacks, needing to block U.S. users and repurchase licenses, etc.

These two projects have actually proven the existence of the market, but many new competitors may emerge, potentially numbering in the hundreds or thousands. It’s still unclear which format will win in each country and which regulatory policies will be more suitable. For example, there are currently very few market makers in prediction markets, basically only one or two traditional market makers can operate in this field, and they are mostly limited to sports events. If it involves other types of predictions, it may be more challenging to execute. The industry is also uncertain about how to solve these issues.

Currently, this track is still in a very early stage, but we have already made many investments in this field, supporting several projects. Although there may be some competition among these projects, we support the success of each project.

Will AI become the mainstream direction in the future?

CZ: I believe AI will write a lot of code in the future, which is very evident. Moreover, now, thanks to AI, the speed and quality of code writing have significantly improved.

I heard a figure yesterday from a traditional financial company that wrote about 2 million lines of code over the past seven years, while in the past year, the code written using AI has almost reached the same scale, and the AI-written code is not just copy-pasting; it is very streamlined and practical. Therefore, I believe AI will greatly enhance human productivity and output capacity.

For developers, this is very positive for humanity, as long as we apply this technology in the right places. Of course, many people have used AI to write a lot of useless programs, but in every market, there will always be 70% to 80% of attempts that fail, while a small number of successful cases will be very successful. Overall, AI's assistance will increase the volume of code, the quality of code, and our overall output.

Is the meme coin market fair?

CZ: To be honest, meme coins and other on-chain projects are inherently decentralized. In a decentralized environment, there will always be some people who are faster than others, and as the track develops, their efficiency will increase.

Some ordinary retail investors, not being professional players, have lower efficiency, and over time, this gap will widen. Introducing third-party interference may have benefits, but it could also lead to centralization. Moreover, the way this interference occurs is hard to define. When people see the meme coin information I post, they will publish their content based on their perspective.

Of course, there are also some people who specialize in this kind of thing, and they are faster. If everyone follows them, they may succeed, but if they don’t follow, it has no value. Early participants need to take risks, so they may also incur losses. Later participants can choose not to follow if they feel it’s unfair. I currently believe that this issue does not require too much of my intervention; the community should develop naturally.

Additionally, my tweets will not change because of what others say. I have my freedom in a decentralized world and will not be influenced by external factors. I understand this situation, but I don’t feel capable of intervening.

A truly successful meme coin should have a long-term narrative, like Doge. There are almost no new meme coins that maintain their value over the long term.

People can play, but they need to realize that it is their choice. The risks of meme coins are very high, and the probability of failure is significant, although it is possible to become rich overnight, the chances of success are low. Everyone needs to take responsibility for their choices. This is my view.

Does Bitcoin have a chance to reach 200,000?

CZ: Haha, this question is really hard to answer. The hardest part is the timing. I have always been optimistic about Bitcoin, believing that over time, it basically has no ceiling. So I think Bitcoin reaching 200,000 is only a matter of time; it’s just a question of when. But I’m not sure exactly when.

Future construction of Binance Square and thoughts for creators

CZ: In this regard, I can only share some personal thoughts; the specific direction depends on the team. I hope Binance Square can be more interactive. I am a heavy user of Twitter and feel that many social platforms do not do well in content filtering and recommendation, especially in how to accurately push interesting content to users who are interested.

Douyin does well in this regard, but it can also go overboard, leading to addiction and monotony. Many platforms can improve in content filtering and pushing. As for AI content, it looks very eye-catching now, but much of it is just a waste of time and lacks substantive content. I hope social media, like Facebook, can also improve in this area.

Binance Square is different from other platforms; users are basically all KYC verified, making transactions and transfers very convenient. In contrast, while the X platform claims to have 700 million users, it is unclear whether all users have completed KYC. Binance supports KYC in over 180 countries, giving us a natural advantage in this regard. Therefore, I believe Binance Square has great potential in this area.

Is there potential and prospects for community building?

CZ: This question is simple; I believe community building is definitely useful, especially in the long term. The definition of community building is very broad, but the key is whether what is created is used by people. Whether it’s a product, community, or meme, as long as there are users, it has value. If no one pays attention, then it has no value.

So I believe that in the long run, community building must have value; this reasoning is very simple.

What are the short-term and long-term expectations for meme coins?

CZ: My expectations are simple; I hope all tracks can become more popular, especially the meme coin track. In the long term, the most important thing is that these things can be practically used or have followers. So my view on meme coins is very simple; I do not reject any track, and I actually quite enjoy playing with meme coins. However, meme coins are not suitable for me; I usually do not participate in such short-term speculative plays, like overnight surges to earn tenfold. For me, this doesn’t make much sense, although many people are interested in meme coins.

As builders, we hope to provide better and smoother tools for everyone, especially in meme coin trading, where the system requirements are very high. Whether it’s decentralized real-time data fetching or other technical requirements, the challenges for the system and products are significant. So I hope that in our ecosystem, products and systems can continuously optimize and become more user-friendly. The market always has cycles, and when our platform and products are built to be more user-friendly, others will naturally use them more.

Has the meme coin market regressed to a global casino?

CZ: This question is somewhat philosophical and broad, making it hard to answer precisely. The market has cycles, and it’s difficult to judge whether we are currently at a high or low point. I think this year could be a super cycle, or it could be that the strength of the four-year cycle of digital currencies is stronger; it’s hard to determine.

VC projects do have issues, especially many projects that perform well at launch but quickly fall into a death spiral. Most VC projects are led by venture capital firms, and early investors often make projects look very good through fine packaging. But VCs have exit pressure behind them; they are not long-term holders and usually need to achieve returns within the fund cycle. So when these projects go public, there is often strong selling pressure, with retail investors being the main buyers. This phenomenon often occurs in the traditional IPO market; in the past, IPOs were for company financing, but now it’s more about VCs exiting.

As for meme coins, their situation is not entirely the same. Some projects have professional teams behind them that quickly buy and drive up prices. Therefore, it’s hard to say which method is better; it depends on the specifics of each project. My advice is for everyone to learn to assess risks and take responsibility for their decisions. No one is forcing you to buy a certain coin; risk control is very important, and this must be recognized.

How to improve customer service efficiency, especially the speed of problem resolution?

CZ: I strongly support improving customer service efficiency. When Binance first started, we set a policy to respond to customers within 24 hours, which is one of the key factors for Binance's success. Later, we raised the goal to respond within 5 minutes; although it’s challenging during peak times, we still strive to improve. If the customer service response time reaches two days, it is indeed bad feedback, and I will provide them with feedback to push for improved efficiency.

Advice for female KOLs on how to deal with attacks and develop?

CZ: Regarding female KOLs, the first thing to understand is that there is no absolute fairness in this world; there are indeed differences between men and women. Among my colleagues, 50% are women, and they often exhibit more resilience and endurance, but they are also more susceptible to emotional influences. As a KOL, especially a female KOL, it is essential to learn to endure online criticism and attacks, as there will always be a small portion of people who specifically target women. Accepting these criticisms and ignoring some unimportant content is a personal choice.

For the career development of KOLs, I recommend collaborating with projects that have potential, especially stable large platforms or entrepreneurial growth stocks. While a large platform like Binance is stable, entrepreneurial platforms may offer more opportunities such as equity or tokens. Additionally, choosing a track that suits oneself is also very important, whether it’s meme coins, utility tokens, or other fields. The key to career development is to select industries with sufficient growth space, and the crypto space has such potential, while the AI industry is less reliant on KOLs.

In summary, choosing the industry first and then selecting quality clients or platforms is key to the development of KOLs.

What are the future plans for the live streaming section of Binance Square?

CZ: I am not very involved in the planning of Binance products, but personally, I hope to see a platform that allows users to communicate freely with very high-quality interactions. When content creators or streamers can obtain clear sources of income, and users can enjoy high-quality content, the financial effects of the platform will naturally enhance. I believe that the current content of Binance Square leans towards trading and finance, lacking in entertainment value, and should enhance its fun while improving content quality.

Moreover, the platform should enable bloggers to gain significant benefits, and users should also be able to profit by supporting this content. The natural advantage of Binance Square lies in its trading platform characteristics, which can easily implement functions like tipping, transferring, and social trading. I hope that in the future, the functions of live streaming, chatting, trading, and payment on the platform can be fully integrated to become a super app.

However, the specific planning should still be handled by Binance's two CEOs, and I will try to participate as little as possible.

What is the next target for BNB?

CZ: I won’t discuss specific numbers, as there is no clear basis for that. I believe the BNB ecosystem is relatively solid and very large. What I am most proud of is that there are many developers (builders) here who are very active, and the community is very strong. Currently, the development potential of the BNB community is enormous, and I personally hold a significant amount of BNB. Therefore, I am very optimistic about the future of BNB, even though I do not discuss specific targets, I believe the support from the community will enable us to do better and better. Thank you all for your support!

Views on community live streaming and community coins

CZ: I cannot comment on individual coins. However, I am not very clear on the specific details of the live streaming policies. Generally speaking, Binance's positioning is not to get involved in politics and not to participate in any inappropriate content (such as adult content, etc.). Discussions about cryptocurrencies, including technology, coins, market analysis, news, etc., are all permissible. While political topics may not be important to many retail investors, Binance's official policy is always not to engage in politically related discussions.

Regarding the content of live streaming and community coins, as a basic principle, we should respect others and not do things that harm ourselves or others. As for specific coins or community coins, I cannot make specific comments on how they will develop in the future.

Will altcoins see a resurgence?

CZ: Regarding altcoins, everyone may have a slightly different definition. Generally speaking, in the long run, the crypto space cannot have only Bitcoin as a dominant coin. There are now thousands of coins, and the top few hundred by market capitalization mostly have practical application scenarios or use value. Therefore, a resurgence of altcoins will definitely occur in the future.

Currently, Bitcoin serves as a "reserve currency" for digital currencies and retains its value well, but it is not very suitable for daily transactions due to high transaction fees and low programmability, lacking features like smart contracts. Therefore, in the short term, many public chains and different functional coins will continue to emerge. These coins will experience bull and bear markets as market cycles change.

As for whether there will be a future resurgence of altcoins, there will definitely be, but the specific timing, which coins will stand out, and their scale are details that are hard to generalize, and no one can accurately predict.

Understanding the risks and opportunities in the crypto industry after the U.S. legal events

CZ: This experience has indeed given me a new understanding of the risks and opportunities in the crypto industry. First of all, the power of the state is very strong, especially in the U.S., so we need to be particularly careful about compliance. I have always held a principle of not actively harming others and not harming myself, and to act according to basic principles. However, sometimes the formulation of laws can pose challenges for us; for example, the U.S. Bank Secrecy Act has made me deeply aware that even having one U.S. user on the platform could lead to accountability in the next five years.

When Binance first started, I was in Shanghai, and as someone with a technical background, I did not know much about compliance. Therefore, everyone must ensure that their projects are legal and compliant, respecting the laws of each country; this is the biggest lesson I learned from this experience. The crypto industry, as an emerging industry, will always face risks, so we need to learn to protect ourselves and effectively avoid these risks.

Will there be a bull market in the next 3 to 4 months?

CZ: It is very difficult to accurately judge the market trends in the next 3 to 4 months. I do not know anyone who can accurately predict market changes in the coming months. The most influential factor may be the policies of the U.S. president, as his policies could impact the global economy, but even someone at that level finds it hard to make accurate predictions.

What advice do you have for newcomers dealing with contracts?

CZ: For newcomers, I do not recommend getting into futures or contracts. This is a high-risk, high-difficulty product; although the returns can be high, it is not suitable for those just entering the field. I suggest that if you want to try, you should use very small amounts of capital, and once you have mastered the basic skills, you can gradually increase your investment. Generally, newcomers are not suited to directly engage in contracts.

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