On January 19, 2026, at 8:00 AM UTC+8, the on-chain analysis platform Arkham disclosed address labels showing that addresses under Trend Research collectively hold approximately 626,700 ETH. This scale has been cited by multiple Chinese news outlets and quickly gained traction in the market. Based on the ETH price monitored by Arkham at the time, the total market value of this position is estimated to be around $2.008 billion to $2.01 billion, with an average entry cost estimated at $3,105.5/ETH. As the ETH price has significantly retraced from previous highs, the paper profit of this massive position has been compressed to about $65 million. With a base position of around two billion dollars, this "high market value, low buffer" state has made the pressure on institutions and subsequent decisions a focal point.

The Scale and Data Details of 626,700 ETH

● Position Size: After merging the addresses related to Trend Research, Arkham's on-chain monitoring indicates a position size of approximately 626,700 ETH. In the current market environment, a single institution holding over 600,000 ETH is enough to be considered a major player.
● Average Cost: Based on the monitored data, the average entry cost of this position is approximately $3,105.5 per ETH, meaning that when the current ETH price fluctuates around this level, the institution is overall just above the breakeven point.
● Total Market Value Range: Different media outlets, based on Arkham's data and their respective ETH price snapshots, have provided slightly varying total market value quotes, mainly concentrated between $2.008 billion and $2.01 billion. This less than 0.1% difference reflects more the timing of the quotes and the price sources rather than a substantive disagreement on the position size.
● Paper Profit and Yield: With a market value of about $2 billion, the corresponding paper profit is approximately $65 million, roughly translating to a single-digit yield in percentile terms, which contrasts with many market participants' high return expectations for "trend institutions" and "major addresses," highlighting that when the position size is extremely large, even tens of millions of dollars in absolute profit still feels thin in terms of risk buffer.
● Impact of Price Quote Differences: The total value figures provided by Fact Sheet and several Chinese news sources fluctuate slightly between $2.008 billion and $2.01 billion, primarily due to ETH quotes being sourced from different exchanges and different time snapshots. This difference does not change the essential judgment of its "two billion dollar level ETH long position."

Pressure from Price Retracement and Compressed Profits

From the ETH price range corresponding to the data disclosed by Arkham, it can be seen that the current market price has very limited premium space over Trend Research's average cost. When the average cost is around $3,105.5, the paper profit of this large position was further boosted when ETH was significantly above the cost level; however, after the recent round of price retracement, the paper profit has shrunk to about $65 million, indicating that the previously accumulated profit buffer has been quickly consumed in short-term fluctuations. For a long position of two billion dollars, the drop in paper profit from a higher range to this level not only represents a numerical decrease but also signifies that the tolerance for drawdown has been compressed, and the position's margin for error has decreased. If the ETH price continues to approach the cost area of about $3,105, this position will slide from an overall profit range to the breakeven point or even the potential loss zone. At that time, whether the trend continues will directly determine whether this position continues to endure volatility, being forced to oscillate around the cost line, or whether it will make adjustments under pressure, such as reducing positions or structural changes. This "edge state of turning profit into breakeven" will amplify the market's imagination of large sell pressure and potential chain reactions.

Similarities and Differences in On-Chain Monitoring and Media References

Currently, all core data regarding Trend Research's ETH holdings can be traced back to Arkham's on-chain monitoring labels, including the scale of approximately 626,700 ETH, the average cost estimate of about $3,105.5, and the market value estimate of around $2.008 billion to $2.01 billion. Multiple Chinese news platforms have clearly pointed to Arkham as the data source in their reports. The slight numerical discrepancies that appear mainly stem from the different ETH price snapshots each outlet selected, leading to minor deviations in the total value expression after the decimal point. This funding tracking based on on-chain labels provides the market with unprecedented transparency, making large holdings of a single institution no longer completely hidden. However, it also has inherent limitations: label attribution may have ambiguous boundaries, address aggregation may involve model assumptions, and it can only observe on-chain assets themselves, making it difficult to accurately restore the institution's full picture in off-chain, derivatives, and structured products dimensions. Under this premise, viewing Arkham data as a reliable on-chain perspective is reasonable, but attempting to deduce precise entry rhythms, internal decision logic, or overall asset allocation structures from it is clearly an overextension that requires deliberate restraint in analysis.

Institutional Strategy Decisions Under Narrowing Paper Profits

From the current structure of approximately $2 billion in market value and about $65 million in paper profit, the theoretically available strategic paths for Trend Research often weigh between continuing to hold, actively reducing positions, and hedging risks. Continuing to hold means betting on the unchanged logic of ETH's medium to long-term rise, viewing the compression of short-term paper profits as normal noise in cyclical fluctuations; however, in the case of significantly thinner profit buffers, some institutions may consider gradually reducing positions or making structural reductions to realize part of the paper profits to hedge against the risk of further price retracement. If they are unwilling to sell directly near the current price, large holders may also construct some form of downside hedge or volatility hedge using futures, options, and other tools, aiming to weaken the impact of extreme market conditions on the net value curve while keeping their spot positions unchanged or minimally changed. For a position like 626,700 ETH, any significant scale of one-time selling during periods of not extremely abundant liquidity in the secondary market could cause short-term price squeezes or shocks, leading to amplified slippage and passive chain liquidation effects. Therefore, true large adjustments often appear in the form of executing in batches, hidden within daily trading noise. However, it is important to emphasize that current public information cannot confirm whether Trend Research has had specific buying or selling operations recently, and on-chain disclosures have not provided sufficient granularity to restore its complete trading path. Thus, discussions about its strategy can only remain at the level of risk-return trade-offs and scenario analysis, rather than being understood as a direct depiction of its actual operations.

Reflection of Market Volatility Rhythm

Placing the current state of Trend Research's compressed paper profits within the recent overall volatility context of ETH, it can be seen that this institution is more like a microcosm of the entire market. After experiencing a previous phase of price surges and heightened sentiment, ETH during the retracement period has caused a large amount of left-side and mid-way entry funds to return from high paper profits to limited profits or even close to costs, and the large long position of two billion dollars is merely an amplified sample of this process. When the market sees information like "the average cost of leading institutions is above $3,000, and current paper profits are only tens of millions of dollars," it often amplifies the emotions of retail and small funds: on one hand, reinforcing the narrative of "heavy chips above," and on the other hand, providing some comfort to those who chased highs, suggesting that "institutions are also buying at high levels." From a longer-term perspective, large positions like Trend Research's, whose paper profits are compressed, also remind the market to pay attention: in the latter half of the cycle, those large positions established at high costs do not have much lower risk exposure than small and medium funds. Once prices oscillate repeatedly around the cost area or deviate downward, it is not only easy to trigger spontaneous reduction pressure but also likely to amplify discussions on social media and public opinion about "whether a top has formed" and "whether institutions are fleeing," thereby influencing broader funding behavior.

Next Observation Points in the Race Between Paper Profits and Risks

Based on the information disclosed by Arkham and multiple news sources, Trend Research's current holding of approximately 626,700 ETH is in an awkward range of huge market value but relatively thin paper profit buffer: a two billion dollar long position is enough to drive narratives and sentiment, but about $65 million in paper profit is insufficient to provide ample safety cushion during severe volatility. Moving forward, the market's focus on this address group will revolve around two dimensions: first, the evolution of ETH prices relative to the cost level of about $3,105.5; the longer the price hovers above this level, the more controllable the institution's active adjustment pressure will be; once it consistently falls below and moves away from this range, discussions about "turning profit into loss" will significantly heat up. Second, whether there are large transfers on-chain or concentrated transactions into exchanges, as these actions are often seen as potential precursors to position adjustments, although their true implications still need to be interpreted in conjunction with more data. For ordinary investors, when tracking the movements of such large addresses, it is essential to deliberately distinguish between on-chain data that has been verified through tools like Arkham and information that is still in rumor or confirmation status, avoiding the simple extrapolation of individual cases to the entire market trend, and certainly not equating them with "institutional consensus" or "top-bottom signals" in the absence of evidence. In the phase of racing between paper profits and risks, maintaining sensitivity to data sources and logical boundaries is often more important than merely chasing emotions.

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