The cryptocurrency market was overall quiet over the weekend, with Bitcoin's price consistently hovering around the 94800–95500 range, while Ethereum remained in the 3300–3350 range, reflecting cautious market sentiment as neither bulls nor bears chose to take decisive action.
However, entering today’s Asian trading session, the market suddenly experienced a significant drop, with Bitcoin quickly breaking below the previous consolidation level, dipping to around 92000 at one point; Ethereum also weakened, with its price falling below the 3200 mark. Subsequently, due to short-term overselling, prices saw a slight rebound, but overall remained in a weak recovery phase.
Macroeconomic Perspective: Rising Uncertainty, Declining Risk Appetite
From a macroeconomic standpoint, last week several Federal Reserve officials released hawkish signals, emphasizing that inflation remains resilient and that interest rate cuts need to be approached with caution, leading to a further delay in market expectations for rate cuts in the short term.
At the same time, over the weekend, Trump’s remarks suggested that Hassett is unlikely to be a candidate for Federal Reserve Chair, coupled with renewed mentions of tariff threats from Europe and the U.S., increasing geopolitical and policy uncertainty, which has put overall risk assets under pressure.
Against this backdrop, the cautious sentiment in the cryptocurrency market has noticeably intensified, with some funds choosing to take profits at high levels, triggering concentrated selling pressure, which became the direct catalyst for this round of decline.
Technical Perspective: Breaking Key Ranges, Rebound Structure Concludes
From a technical structure perspective, Bitcoin's previous rebound was essentially a technical rebound within a downtrend. With prices breaking below the key support range of 94500–93500, this has essentially confirmed the end of this rebound trend.
On the daily chart, prices have consistently closed lower, and the correction and repair pattern is gradually strengthening; however, it is important to note that prices have now retraced to around the daily midline at 92000, which still holds some short-term support significance.
In the short term, on the four-hour chart, the MACD continues to expand downwards, and bearish momentum has not yet fully released; the hourly chart also shows weakness, although the RSI has entered a clearly oversold zone, indicating that a technical rebound correction cannot be ruled out in the short term.
Therefore, a more reasonable expectation for the day is: first a rebound correction, then observe whether to continue the bearish downtrend, rather than blindly chasing shorts.
Bitcoin: Focus on Rebound Height, Beware of Secondary Dips
Support Below: Pay close attention to 92000, and further at the psychological level of 90000
Resistance Above: Short-term rebound pressure is around 94000
If the price rebound cannot regain above 94000, there remains a risk of further weakness and a drop back to the 90,000 mark; only by reclaiming this level can the market hope to return to the previous rebound structure.
Ethereum: Linked Decline, Repair Rhythm Not Yet Finished
Ethereum's movement is highly correlated with Bitcoin, and this round of significant decline has also intensified the repair effort. Short-term indicators have entered an oversold state, and it is necessary to first observe the strength of the rebound correction during the day.
Support Below: The 3180–3150 range, further at the 3100 area
Resistance Above: The 3270–3330 range
Until it effectively regains above 3330, the overall approach should still be treated as weak oscillation with rebound pressure, and caution should be maintained in operations to avoid blindly chasing prices during the repair phase.
The current cryptocurrency market has shifted from expectations of "continuing rebounds" to a high-level decline and repair phase. Although there is a technical rebound demand in the short term, in the context of a bearish macro sentiment and structural breakdown, rebounds should be viewed more as repairs rather than the start of a new upward trend.
Focus on the strength of the rebound and the key resistance levels throughout the day to determine subsequent directional choices.
This article is exclusively contributed by Jayne Crypto (follow the official account: Jayne Crypto for real-time updates), representing personal views only. Due to the timing of the article's release, the above views or suggestions may not be timely and are for reference only; risks are borne by the reader. Manage trading positions reasonably and avoid heavy or full positions. Developing good investment habits is essential for a positive cycle!
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