Qinglan Crypto Class is now open! BTC's four cycles + dual perspective on news, guiding you to step in sync with the crypto market rhythm
Comprehensive analysis report on multiple cycles
I. Technical Analysis
Short-term (15 minutes - 1 hour): Weak fluctuations, key level contention
The 15-minute chart shows the price fluctuating down from a high of 95500 to around 95100, with MA5/10/20 forming a death cross downward, MACD green bars below the zero line expanding, and RSI retreating from the overbought zone to the edge of 40, indicating short-term bullish weakness. Key support is at the psychological level of 95000 and the previous low of 95050.
The 1-hour chart shows the price under pressure at MA20 (around 95300), with signs of another death cross near the MACD zero line, and RSI below 50, with resistance focused on the 95300-95400 area.
Medium-term (4 hours): High-level consolidation after an increase, weakening momentum
- After reaching a high, the price entered a consolidation platform, with MA5 and MA10 flattening and merging, and MACD red bars shortening with the fast and slow lines flattening at a high level, indicating a decrease in upward momentum. Key support is at 94500-95000 (previous platform and MA20), with resistance focused on the 96000-96500 previous high area.
Long-term (Daily): Pullback in an upward trend, structure remains intact
- The price remains above all major moving averages, with a well-formed bullish arrangement, and the MACD golden cross continues above the zero line. However, RSI is approaching the overbought zone at 70, requiring time or a pullback for correction. Strong support is at the MA20 moving average (around 92200); as long as it holds, the medium to long-term bullish logic remains unchanged.
II. News Integration
Positive Factors: Bitcoin ETFs have been continuously attracting funds recently, with institutional capital inflow providing medium to long-term support; Coinbase CEO refutes industry negative rumors, easing market concerns.
Negative/Cautious Signals: Analysis indicates that Bitcoin demand is still suppressed by the bear cycle; the expiration of $82 billion in options on January 30 may trigger short-term volatility; some strategists are reducing Bitcoin holdings due to long-term risks like quantum computing.
Market Sentiment: Shifting from extreme FOMO to caution, professional traders are signaling a change in trend, intensifying the long-short battle.
III. Comprehensive Forecast and Trading Ideas
The market is at a "medium to long-term positive, short-term directional choice" node: the daily trend remains intact, but short cycles are weakening, with intense long-short battles in the 95000-96000 range.
Market Forecast: In the short term (1-3 days), influenced by events like options expiration, a pullback to test the 94500-95000 support may occur first. If the support holds, it will attempt to rally again to 96000; if it breaks, the depth of the pullback may increase.
Trading Strategy:
Short-term Traders: Focus on short positions, with some long positions as a supplement. When a rebound reaches the resistance zone of 95400-95600 and shows signs of stagnation, lightly short with a stop loss above 96000, targeting 95000, and if broken, looking towards 94500. Avoid blindly bottom-fishing during declines; wait for key levels like 95000 and 94500 to show signs of a stop (such as long lower shadows, RSI divergence) before considering long positions.
Medium to Long-term Holders: The daily trend remains intact, and the inflow of ETF funds supports the logic; focus on the 94500-92200 pullback area for phased positioning, strictly controlling position size.
IV. Summary
For more quantitative breakdowns of how real-time news affects market sentiment, updates are available on my Qinglan Crypto Class, qinglan.org. Finally, Sister Qinglan shares a trading maxim: "Markets are born in despair, rise in hesitation, and end in euphoria." The current fluctuations are precisely the "hesitation phase" of the trend process; patiently waiting for direction clarity is more important than acting blindly. Be flexible in response during trading, balancing risks and opportunities.
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