On January 16, 2026, Eastern Standard Time, there was a significant divergence in the funding of the U.S. Bitcoin spot ETF: against a backdrop of a total net inflow of approximately $1.416 billion this week, there was a recorded $394.7 million net outflow on that day, abruptly halting the previously warming funding trend. Throughout the week, leading products such as IBIT and FBTC continued to show strong capital attraction, with IBIT seeing a weekly net inflow of about $1.0349 billion and FBTC a net inflow of about $194.4 million, while GBTC maintained a slight net outflow, with a weekly outflow of about $1.6 million. Meanwhile, on-chain data indicated that approximately 35,400 profitable Bitcoins flowed into exchanges, combined with analysts stating that "the current main selling pressure comes from profitable chips, with a profit-loss ratio of about 7.5 to 1," creating a hedge between the continued accumulation of ETFs and the concentrated selling of on-chain profits, leading to short-term market pressure and a significant increase in emotional sensitivity.
$1.4 Billion Net Inflow Offsets Nearly $400 Million Daily Withdrawal
● Funding Rhythm Comparison: Research reports indicate that the U.S. Bitcoin spot ETF achieved a total net inflow of about $1.416 billion this week, showing a clear bullish bias in the funding landscape on a weekly scale. However, on January 16, there was a $394.7 million net outflow, marking a "sharp brake" in the weekly funding curve and breaking the previously smooth trend of consecutive positive inflows.
● Leading Product Divergence: Breaking down by product, this week IBIT led with a net inflow of about $1.0349 billion, becoming the main entry point for incremental funds; FBTC also recorded a net inflow of about $194.4 million, maintaining strong capital attraction. In contrast, GBTC recorded a net outflow of about $1.6 million this week, continuing its pattern of mild outflows. This structure of "old products slightly retreating while new products strongly attract capital" highlights the reallocation direction of funds between different ETFs.
● Marginal Rather Than Trend Reversal: Against the backdrop of still significant weekly positive inflows, the single-day net outflow on January 16 appears more like a sharp swing in funding rhythm rather than a trend reversal signal. On one hand, weekly data indicates that institutions and medium to long-term funds are still continuously increasing their Bitcoin allocations through ETFs; on the other hand, the nearly $400 million withdrawal on that day exacerbated short-term volatility and emotional fluctuations, but in terms of volume, it was insufficient to alter the fundamental situation of net inflows for the week, resembling a high-level turnover and short-term correction within a strong capital attraction cycle.
FBTC and GBTC as Major Daily Capital Exits
The nearly $400 million net outflow on January 16 showed a clear concentration at the product level. Public data indicates that the net outflow on that day mainly came from two products: FBTC with a net outflow of about $205.2 million and GBTC with a net outflow of about $44.8 million, together constituting the core source of the daily capital withdrawal. This concentration of outflows in a few products caused the daily funding curve to exhibit a "local depression" characteristic.
From a temporal perspective, FBTC still recorded a net inflow of about $194.4 million for the entire week, indicating that even with significant withdrawals on the 16th, the overall weekly funding direction remained bullish. This contrast of "weekly capital attraction with significant daily withdrawals" is difficult to simply attribute to a trend-based capital exit and is more likely related to short-term trading funds and arbitrage across products or markets. Some funds, after a phase of price increase, realize profits through hedging or spread trading, which can manifest as large redemptions on specific trading days, thereby amplifying daily funding volatility.
For GBTC, this week continued to record a slight net outflow of about $1.6 million, maintaining the mild outflow rhythm since its transformation into a spot ETF. The market has long been aware of its fee structure and product attributes, with some funds continuously migrating to new products with lower fees and more active liquidity. In this context, the single-day net outflow of about $44.8 million on January 16 is more a reflection of the existing trend being amplified on that day rather than a new qualitative change signal. Given the limited public information, there are still many unknowns regarding the internal holder structure, specific redemption types, and subsequent fund directions, so interpretations of its outflow motives can only remain at the macro level of "fees and product substitution," avoiding excessive speculation on undisclosed details.
On-chain 35,400 Profitable Coins Concentrated on Exchanges
In response to the ETF funding trends, this week's on-chain data also provided another important clue. According to a single source, approximately 35,400 profitable Bitcoins flowed into exchanges this week, and this batch of "profitable coins" constitutes the main supply increment in the current spot market. CryptoQuant analyst Axel pointed out that the current market's profit-loss ratio is about 7.5 to 1, indicating that at the current price range, the number of profitable chips far exceeds those at a loss, with selling motives leaning more towards "profit-taking" rather than "stop-loss exits."
In this structure, the judgment that "profitable chips are the main source of selling pressure" has certain data support. A large number of profitable coins being transferred to exchanges often means that holders are inclined to sell in batches at the current price range or slightly higher prices, directly increasing both active and passive sell orders on the order book in the short term. Meanwhile, the continued purchases on the ETF side play a hedging role: on one side, institutions convert fiat funds into Bitcoin holdings through channels like IBIT and FBTC, while on the other side, early or medium-term holders choose to cash out profits at high prices.
From a power comparison perspective, if the net inflow of ETFs is strong enough to cover the selling pressure from on-chain profitable chips, prices often exhibit characteristics of "high-level oscillation to digest chips"; however, when the ETF buying rhythm slows down on certain trading days, or even turns into net outflows like on January 16, this batch of preparatory selling profitable chips can exert a more pronounced downward pressure on prices in the absence of sufficient counterparties, amplifying short-term volatility and weakening emotional indicators.
Institutional Long-term Accumulation vs. Retail Short-term Cashing Out Divergence
Observing the funding and market capitalization structure this week reveals a relatively clear division of roles. On one hand, the Bitcoin spot ETF continues to record a net inflow of about $1.416 billion on a weekly basis, with Bitcoin's market capitalization ratio roughly maintaining around 60%, indicating that the trend of institutions and medium to long-term funds incorporating Bitcoin into their asset allocations is ongoing. The ETF, as a compliant channel, allows traditional funds to continuously and rhythmically increase their positions without touching on-chain operations, steadily raising Bitcoin's weight in global asset portfolios.
On the other hand, the on-chain data of 35,400 profitable coins flowing into exchanges and the 7.5 to 1 profit-loss ratio structure more reflect the behavior patterns of retail investors and early holders—after a phase of price increase, they tend to lock in floating profits through concentrated selling. For this portion of funds, each time the price approaches or breaks through previous highs, it serves as a window to "cash out on the previous round of persistence," with shorter decision cycles, greater sensitivity to price fluctuations, and a higher likelihood of forming collective actions driven by emotions.
When the ETF buying rhythm stabilizes or even slows down, the tension between these two forces will be amplified. If at some point, profitable chips choose to concentrate their selling, while the ETF purchase side happens to slow down or even temporarily turns to net redemptions, the market will switch from "equilibrium digestion" to "supply tilt" in a short time, raising both the magnitude and speed of price corrections. Emotionally, this volatility triggered by profit-taking is easily interpreted as "institutional retreat" or "trend topping," potentially triggering more follow-up selling and forming a self-reinforcing feedback loop. Conversely, once ETF buying resumes its pace, the impact of short-term cashing out is more easily absorbed, allowing prices to return to the range or continue to rise.
Short-term Selling Pressure Rises but Mid-term Bullish Base Remains Unchanged
In summary, the current pattern of ETF funding flows and on-chain chip behavior is more akin to a phase of short-term profit-taking and ETF buying hedging, rather than a trend-based retreat of institutional funds. The nearly $1.416 billion net inflow this week coexists with a $394.7 million net outflow on a single day, indicating that in the larger cycle, there is still a significant amount of new capital entering Bitcoin through ETFs, while on-chain profitable chips choose to cash out, creating a tug-of-war in prices.
In terms of operations, investors need to pay close attention to the net subscription and redemption data of ETFs in the coming days, as well as whether the scale of profitable chips flowing into exchanges can cool down simultaneously. If subsequent ETFs restore stable net inflows while the volume of profitable chips flowing into exchanges gradually declines, it will help verify that this round of selling pressure is more like a phase of "profit digestion," rather than a long-term top signal; if the two continue to misalign—ETFs slow down or even turn into regular net outflows while profitable chips continue to flow into exchanges—then it is necessary to be wary of a substantial reversal in the supply-demand structure.
From a longer-term perspective, the key to the mid-term trend still lies in changes in institutional holdings and whether Bitcoin's market capitalization ratio can maintain a relatively high level. As long as the spot ETF continues to attract a considerable amount of new capital and Bitcoin's core position in crypto assets and global risk assets is not weakened, the current round of selling pressure led by profitable chips is more likely to be viewed as a "high-level consolidation" within a bullish cycle. What truly warrants caution is if, at some future stage, the ETF experiences sustained and significant net outflows while the market capitalization ratio declines, as that would indicate a fundamental disruption to the bullish structure.
Join our community to discuss and grow stronger together!
Official Telegram community: https://t.me/aicoincn
AiCoin Chinese Twitter: https://x.com/AiCoinzh
OKX Benefits Group: https://aicoin.com/link/chat?cid=l61eM4owQ
Binance Benefits Group: https://aicoin.com/link/chat?cid=ynr7d1P6Z
免责声明：本文章仅代表作者个人观点，不代表本平台的立场和观点。本文章仅供信息分享，不构成对任何人的任何投资建议。用户与作者之间的任何争议，与本平台无关。如网页中刊载的文章或图片涉及侵权，请提供相关的权利证明和身份证明发送邮件到support@aicoin.com，本平台相关工作人员将会进行核查。
