1. Periodic Review: The Trend Basically Meets Expectations

A comprehensive review of the market from the beginning of this month to now over the past half month. From the actual trend, whether in the short-term or wave level, the market's operational rhythm is basically within the previous expectations. The positions for upward movement, the range for pullbacks, and key nodes all have relatively clear references.

2. Current Trading Focus: Mainly Short Positions in the Medium to Long Term

As mentioned yesterday, in the coming period, the trading mindset will gradually shift towards a bearish direction, focusing on medium to long-term layouts. In the short term, there is still a possibility of some upward space, but the overall directional judgment has not changed.

The most critical observation point in the current market remains the key support at 94,000.

3. Support Pullback Situation: Can 94,000 Hold?

Yesterday, the price experienced a downward pullback, reaching a low near 94,300, followed by a rebound of nearly 1,000 points.

This segment of the trend was anticipated the day before. It was clearly pointed out that at high levels, it is not advisable to blindly chase the top, but rather to wait for a pullback before considering long opportunities.

At that time, the price was around 97,000, and it was judged that a pullback would occur first, with a focus on the lower horizontal support. From the results, the market has basically operated according to this thought process.

4. First Expectation: Support Holds, Completing the Final Rebound

If the trend is relatively ideal, the price may find support near 94,000, not breaking the pullback, and then initiate a rebound upward, completing the final sprint of the bulls. In this case, after pulling back to support, there may still be a short-term long opportunity.

The expected height of the rebound remains in the range of 98,000 to 99,000, and in extreme cases, a test of 100,000 cannot be ruled out. As long as the price effectively breaks above 98,000, medium to long-term bears can gradually consider layouts on the left side.

5. Second Expectation: Support Breaks, Ending the Rebound

If the price fails to stabilize near 94,000 and instead forms an effective break, it can be considered that this round of rebound has ended. A break requires both the loss of support and the market structure to turn bearish.

Once the break is established, the original support is likely to turn into resistance in the future, and the next phase of medium to long-term bearish targets will point below 80,000.

6. About Entry Timing: Avoid Chasing Shorts

Even if there is a break of support, it is not advisable to immediately chase shorts. After a break, it usually remains in the initial stage of decline, often accompanied by a period of consolidation. A more reasonable approach is to wait for the decline to complete and the adjustment structure to peak before considering right-side bearish layouts.

7. Summary of Thoughts: Focus on Support, Wait for Structure

Overall, the most important thing at this stage is still to observe whether the key support at 94,000 holds. The core target for medium to long-term bears still references the previous low, looking further below 80,000.

The overall trading mindset is primarily focused on medium to long-term bearish layouts, while short-term pullback rebound opportunities can be taken or not, depending more on personal rhythm. It is recommended to focus main energy on grasping structural opportunities in the medium to long-term direction.

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