Original Author: KarenZ, Foresight News

"Haircut" has evolved into a refined investment. However, not all projects in the star-studded prediction market track are worth investing time and money.

Especially in prediction markets, unlike zero-cost testnet tasks, they usually require "real money" to bet. Although the amount per bet can be controlled, this "payment" threshold directly filters out a large number of pure freeloaders and brings risks of capital erosion to real users.

If you are still struggling with which project to place your chips on in 2026, this article will help you analyze from three dimensions: reasons for attention, degree of competition (competitive data), and interaction cost-effectiveness.

But before charging ahead, please read this "self-defense" guide:

• Regulatory risks.
• Do not participate with funds you cannot afford to lose.
• Prediction markets are susceptible to manipulation by bots, market manipulation, and insider trading.
• Participating in prediction market interactions requires a certain level of judgment on news hotspots, sports events, or dynamics in the crypto industry.
• Understand the judgment rules clearly, including the sources of contract formulation, whether the cutoff time includes the day, wording traps, etc.
• If you blindly bet just to increase interaction, you are likely to face the risk of capital loss. A data point from Hubble AI shows that "on Polymarket, the most active retail group (medium frequency), although having the highest win rate across the network, is limited by capital efficiency and lack of systematic advantages, resulting in a median actual return close to zero."
• Consider hedging strategies: do not place unilateral bets in uncertain prediction markets; try cross-platform hedging. Although there are price differences and slippage costs, this can minimize the risks of unilateral betting and focus on increasing trading volume. It is important to note that no trading strategy can completely avoid risks, and careful assessment is required during operations.

Polymarket

Why is it worth paying attention to?

• Leader in prediction markets;
• Cumulative financing exceeds $2.2 billion, including a $2 billion strategic investment from Intercontinental Exchange (ICE), the parent company of the New York Stock Exchange.
• Polymarket's Chief Marketing Officer Matthew Modabber confirmed the POLY token and airdrop plan in October 2025.
• Polymarket has been approved by the CFTC to launch in the U.S. and is returning to the U.S. market.
• Strong expectations for token launch and retrospective airdrop in 2026.

To what extent is it competitive?

• Nearly 920,000 cumulative traders, with a large user base.
• Monthly active users have been over 460,000 in the last three months, with stable user retention.
• Weekly trading volume has been above $1 billion in recent weeks.
• The average number of trades per active wallet increased from less than 10 trades per day in December 2025 to a peak of 23 trades at the beginning of January, showing a surge in trading activity.
• In terms of average bet amount, 20.69% of users bet an average of under $10, 30.35% of users have an average bet amount between $10 and $50, 23.91% of users bet between $100 and $500, and 0.24% of users bet an average of over $10,000.

Is it worth interacting?

It is worth participating, but costs must be strictly controlled. As a heavily competitive project, its potential airdrop scale is very attractive. However, Polymarket's mature user ecosystem means that many historical traders occupy part of the retrospective airdrop quota, and new users need to rationally assess the input-output ratio. In October 2025, Bloomberg reported that Polymarket was in early talks with investors to raise funds at a valuation of $12-15 billion, which has increased more than tenfold compared to four months ago, indicating a continuous rise in project value recognition.

Kalshi

Why is it worth paying attention to?

• Cumulative financing is close to $1.6 billion. The latest E round of financing occurred in December 2025, raising $1 billion at a valuation of $11 billion, with participation from Sequoia, a16z, ARK Invest, Y Combinator, etc., doubling the valuation from the $300 million financing in October 2025.
• Regulated by the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).
• Currently, Kalshi has not officially disclosed any token or airdrop plans. However, based on its recent expansion into the crypto ecosystem, community analysis suggests there are expectations for an airdrop.

To what extent is it competitive?

• Cumulative nominal trading volume has reached $30 billion.
• Since August 2025, nominal trading volume has been spiraling upward, with recent weeks seeing nominal trading volumes between $1.5 billion and $2 billion, showing robust growth.
• Total number of trades is close to 130 million, with trading activity among the top in the prediction market field.

Is it worth interacting?

Cautious participation, low cost-effectiveness. On one hand, the project lacks a clear timeline for token issuance and airdrops, leading to high uncertainty; on the other hand, Kalshi charges trading fees, making the cost of increasing volume relatively high, and its mature business model has a low demand for token incentives, limiting the probability of airdrop realization.

Opinion

Why is it worth paying attention to?

• Opinion is one of the fastest-growing prediction markets, significantly outpacing most competitors during the same period.
• Opinion is one of the selected projects in the 7th season MVB accelerator program by Yzi Labs in 2024.
• Opinion completed a $5 million seed round financing in March 2025, led by Yzi Labs. In December, the Opinion team disclosed that they received additional financing support of several tens of millions of dollars.
• Opinion launched its mainnet in October 2025 while introducing a points system, with clear expectations for an airdrop.

To what extent is it competitive?

• From October 2025 to now, Opinion's cumulative nominal trading volume has reached $15.3 billion, second only to Polymarket ($44.8 billion) and Kalshi ($30 billion).
• Current Opinion TVL exceeds $140 million.
• Cumulative traders exceed 170,000.
• Daily trading user numbers reached over 40,000 from late December to early January, with recent figures between 10,000 and 20,000 users in the last 10 days.

Is it worth interacting?

Relatively competitive, but with clear airdrop expectations and strong backing from Yzi Labs. It should be noted that a weekly trading volume of over $200 is required to steadily earn weekly leaderboard points, with point weights covering multiple dimensions such as limit order liquidity provision, trading scale, and holding time bonuses, necessitating a reasonable interaction strategy.

Predict.fun

Why is it worth paying attention to?

• Predict.fun was selected for the Yzi Labs incubation program EASY Residency in December 2025.
• Predict.fun is a BNB Chain native prediction market incubated and invested by Yzi Labs. The founder dingaling previously sparked controversy due to the failure of boop.fun and the "mouse warehouse" incident, and was criticized by Zhao Changpeng, but later reconciled with Zhao, gradually dissipating the negative impact.
• Predict.fun allows users to continue earning during the waiting period after placing bets through integration with the Venus protocol (applicable to some short-term markets).
• It has a points mechanism, with clear expectations for an airdrop.

To what extent is it competitive?

• Cumulative nominal transaction volume is $320 million, with prediction transaction volume exceeding $200 million.
• Cumulative number of trades reached 478,000, with a total of 36,000 independent trading users, averaging 13 trades per user.
• Since mid-December, daily active users have mostly ranged between 2,000 and 4,000, with a relatively small user base.
• Current TVL is approximately $22.58 million.

Is it worth interacting?

Medium to low competition. Compared to Polymarket, where most participants are experienced traders and institutions, most people on Predict.fun are betting just to increase interaction. Strategies to accumulate PP points include trading on the platform, providing meaningful liquidity, and holding positions.

Probable

Why is it worth paying attention to?

• Probable is co-incubated by PancakeSwap and Yzi Labs, with a solid background.
• Probable launched a points program on January 12, 2026, but currently only supports points acquisition through invitations.
• Zero transaction fees.

To what extent is it competitive?

• Since December 18, 2025, cumulative nominal transaction volume has reached $560 million, with prediction transaction volume reaching $380 million.
• Cumulative users are 12,389, with daily active users ranging from 500 to 1,000 from late December 2025 to early January 2026, gradually increasing daily active users starting in early January, with daily active users exceeding 4,000 on January 14 and 15.
• Cumulative number of trades is 834,357, with an average of 67 trades per user.
• The average transaction size is $425, with an average total transaction size of $3,357 per user.

Is it worth interacting?

Low competition. Probable launched in mid-December and is still in the early stages. It should be noted that referrers must first complete a cumulative trading volume of $100 to unlock and generate an invitation code. Additionally, as a project incubated by PancakeSwap, its token is highly likely to launch through PancakeSwap's CAKE.PAD and may even directly list on Binance.

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