On January 16, 2026, at 8:00 AM UTC+8, a massive buy order for Bitcoin call options expiring in 2026 appeared on Deribit, drawing the attention of the entire market. Unidentified funds concentrated on purchasing two sets of long-dated options: one set with a strike price of $100,000 and an expiration date of February 27, 2026, and another set with a strike price of $98,000 and an expiration date of January 30, 2026. The total nominal value reached as high as $353 million, with the buyer actually paying about $10.22 million in premiums, corresponding to an exposure of approximately 35 times leverage. At a stage where the current Bitcoin price and volatility have not yet fully reached extremes, this high strike price bet on the long term is a strong bullish wager on the market two years from now, contrasting sharply with the current fluctuating volatility environment.
Key Parameters and Volume of the Two Options Bets
● Contract Breakdown and Parameters: The buyer swept in a total of 3,700 Bitcoin call options on Deribit, including 1,300 call contracts with a strike price of $100,000 and an expiration date of February 27, 2026, as well as 2,400 call contracts with a strike price of $98,000 and an expiration date of January 30, 2026. Both sets of contracts are long-dated options with nearly two years until expiration and are deeply out of the money.
● Nominal Value and Premium: According to Deribit's standard, each option corresponds to 1 BTC. Based on the current price range, the total nominal value of the two sets of contracts is approximately $353 million. According to price records and transaction data from multiple sources A/B/C, the buyer paid a total of about $10.22 million in premiums, a figure that has been cross-verified among several data sources.
● Leverage Ratio and Risk Exposure: The ratio of nominal value/premium paid ≈ 35 indicates that this is a directional bet with approximately 35 times nominal leverage. Simplifying, if held to expiration without additional investment, if the Bitcoin price does not approach the strike price at expiration, the $10.22 million could be entirely lost; conversely, if the price significantly rises and approaches or even exceeds $100,000 in the next two years, the time value and intrinsic value of the options will amplify, providing returns several times or even a dozen times the premium.
● Multi-dimensional Considerations of Profit and Loss Range: In terms of price, these deeply out-of-the-money call options will only release significant value when the underlying price far exceeds the current level; in terms of volatility, an increase in implied volatility will raise the option prices, allowing the buyer to profit from closing positions before expiration; in terms of time, as 2026 approaches, the time value will continuously decay, and if the Bitcoin price lingers far from the strike price for an extended period, even with brief rebounds, the buyer may not achieve ideal returns due to time decay.
● Relative Size and Scarcity: Based on current public information, these two purchases of a total of 3,700 long-dated options have been described by multiple parties as one of the historically rare large single-day orders for options expiring in 2026, forming an extremely concentrated bullish position above this expiration and price level. For products with a duration spanning two years and a strike price at an extreme high, such a volume of unilateral buying is significantly scarce and has a demonstrative effect among similar contracts.
The Symbolic Significance of the Halving Cycle and the $100,000 Threshold
The expiration dates of these two sets of options fall at the tail end of the cycle following Bitcoin's fourth halving, coinciding highly with the historical pattern of significant bull markets releasing gains concentrated within 1 to 2 years post-halving. The current timeline implies that the buyer is betting on a typical mid-to-late cycle market after the halving—not merely speculating on short-term emotional fluctuations or just capturing the next cycle peak, but locking in a time window for prices to surge above $100,000 within the next two years. It is this highly coupled timing with the halving cycle that gives the 2026 contracts a particularly distinct cyclical attribute.
From a price design perspective, $100,000 and $98,000 are not just simple strike price numbers but are psychological thresholds frequently mentioned in the market's long-term narrative. If Bitcoin can successfully stabilize around this level, its total market capitalization will significantly increase, and its position in the global asset landscape will be revalued. Therefore, anchoring the strike price in this range itself signals a belief in Bitcoin completing a "crossing of a magnitude revaluation," carrying strong symbolic significance in market expectations. Various paths can be imagined around this target: if Bitcoin successfully surges to or even exceeds $100,000 in the next two years, driven by the post-halving expansion market, the intrinsic value of these options will rapidly inflate as expiration approaches; conversely, if the price fails to reach this level or only briefly tests it before quickly retreating, the option buyer may face significant losses due to time decay, even if they do not cash out during a floating profit phase.
The risk-reward ratio under different scenarios thus exhibits strong asymmetrical characteristics. If Bitcoin's price remains in a mid-to-high range but below the strike price over the next two years, these options are likely to expire worthless, resulting in the buyer losing the entire premium, while the market may interpret this loss as a reasonable cost of a "failed high-odds bet." If the market enters an extreme bull path, the once seemingly unrealistic $100,000 strike price may become relatively "conservative" in the later stages of the bull market, with the option's value elasticity being realized at that moment. Historical long-dated options bets have also shown similar deviation phenomena: target prices at the beginning of trading are often seen as overly optimistic, but once the cycle truly begins, the deviation between market peaks and expected targets can sometimes far exceed most participants' imaginations; however, currently available public information does not provide directly comparable samples.
Identity Mystique and On-chain Clues
The initial disclosure of this trade came from the on-chain and derivatives tracking account @ai_9684xtpa. This account was the first to capture these two large orders for options expiring in 2026 with strike prices close to $100,000 on Deribit and published relevant screenshots and parameters on social media, quickly sparking retweets and discussions in the Chinese community. Subsequently, industry media Wu Says and Deep Tide TechFlow independently cross-verified this information, confirming the contract size, strike price, expiration date, and approximate premium range, providing multiple information sources to support the authenticity of this event.
In determining the identity of the trading entity, market speculation generally revolves around two possibilities: "a single whale" or "institutional funds." This is partly due to the extremely high concentration of the trade and the highly uniform contract parameters, which align with the characteristics of a large fund executing a single strategy, and partly because it is highly unlikely for ordinary investors to spend tens of millions of dollars on long-dated options on Deribit. However, it should be noted that there is currently no public on-chain evidence to precisely identify specific accounts, nor is there enough information to determine whether it is a single high-net-worth individual or a type of institutional fund behind it, so related discussions remain at the level of reasonable speculation and cannot be concluded as fact.
Surrounding this event, @wublock described it as "one of the largest single-day purchases of 2026 options in Deribit's history," emphasizing its historical rarity in terms of duration and scale; @TechFlowDaily pointed out that the approximately 35 times leverage of this large long-dated bullish bet reflects that the trading party has "extreme bullish expectations" and views it as an important sample for observing long-term sentiment. These comments do not fully restore the trading strategy itself but rather depict the market sentiment and risk preferences based on existing public data.
It is particularly important to note that there is still a severe lack of key information regarding this "whale": including specific account identifiers, past trading habits, whether they hold large amounts of spot, and whether they have established hedging positions on other platforms or over-the-counter—all of which lack reliable disclosure. Based solely on these two large orders on Deribit, it is difficult to infer their overall asset allocation and risk management approach. Therefore, any simple interpretation of this trade as "pure directional bullish without hedging" lacks sufficient basis, and readers must exercise restraint when extrapolating a complete strategy based on this.
Derivative Pricing Reflecting Future Paths
From a pricing characteristic perspective, the premiums and implied volatility levels of these two sets of long-term deeply out-of-the-money call options reflect the market's complex expectations regarding future risks and potential large fluctuations. On one hand, the absolute price of deeply out-of-the-money contracts is relatively low, allowing buyers to leverage significant nominal exposure with limited funds; on the other hand, extending the duration to about two years means that the impact of implied volatility on pricing is further amplified, and when the market prices these contracts, it is essentially paying for the uncertainty of multiple macro and industry cycles in the future. Therefore, the appearance of million-dollar-level premium expenditures on such contracts indicates that the buyer is willing to bear high time value costs in exchange for the right to potential extreme market movements.
From the buyer's perspective, multiple possible motivations can be identified. The first is pure directional bullish speculation, concentrating bets on a target price above $100,000 through low-cost, high-leverage long-dated options, leaving potential profits of several times or even a dozen times for a seemingly distant but clear time window. The second is the demand for hedging spot or over-the-counter liabilities; if the buyer already holds a large amount of Bitcoin spot or related liabilities, purchasing long-dated deeply out-of-the-money calls can lock in upside gains in an extreme bull market scenario, forming a kind of "insurance" against tail risks. The third may relate to hedging for structured products, such as configuring long-dated options as risk hedging components for products with capped returns or structural knock-in clauses; under this logic, the apparent unilateral bet is actually part of a more complex structure.
In terms of market microstructure, such a large unilateral bullish buy will inevitably create short-term disturbances in the options surface for related durations and price ranges on Deribit. The sudden increase in demand for deeply out-of-the-money long-dated calls is likely to push up the implied volatility in that area and may alter the pricing skew, making the pricing of upside risks more expensive. Meanwhile, liquidity providers, after selling large calls, often adjust their hedging strategies based on their models, such as gradually building positions on the spot or futures side to neutralize Gamma and Vega exposure, thereby creating a chain reaction affecting overall market liquidity and price elasticity.
Combining recent options positions and trading structures, this massive buy appears more as a signal amplifying the existing bullish atmosphere rather than a completely isolated "anomalous event." The market had previously seen layouts for the post-halving market at different durations, with long-dated bullish positions gradually accumulating; these two trades have illuminated a new high point in the most extreme areas of strike price and duration. Whether they signify the "starting point" for broader bullish layouts remains to be seen, depending on whether subsequent funds continue to follow in similar durations and price levels. But at least for now, this single event is already sufficient to serve as a benchmark sample for observing how the options market prices "Bitcoin at $100,000."
How Retail Investors View the Whale's Extreme Bet
For ordinary investors, understanding this trade requires first clarifying the huge difference between nominal value and actual premium paid. The nominal value of $353 million seems astonishing, while the actual investment is only about $10.22 million, corresponding to a leverage factor of about 35 times. For whales or institutional funds, such an investment may only account for a small portion of their total assets, representing a high-odds bet within an acceptable range; however, for retail investors with much smaller capital, attempting to "mimic one-to-one" based on nominal value or leverage ratio would expose them to completely different risk levels.
Further analysis shows that if ordinary investors simply follow suit by buying similar long-dated options or increasing leverage on spot and contracts, they will also face significant time value decay and extreme drawdown risks. The characteristic of long-dated options is that even if the Bitcoin price rises in the short term, as long as the increase is insufficient to offset the impacts of time value and the decline in implied volatility, the option price may not rise significantly; if investors frequently chase prices during volatility, they can easily deplete a large amount of capital before a true bull market unfolds. Moreover, if they use high-leverage spot or perpetual contracts to "create their own options," they are more likely to be forcibly liquidated during severe fluctuations, missing out on the potential trend that may emerge later.
Therefore, a more rational approach is to view this whale operation as a signal of sentiment and expectations, rather than a specific manual for position allocation. It indicates to the market that at least some large funds are willing to pay real money for the scenario of "Bitcoin potentially breaking $100,000 within two years," betting on this future path at the derivatives level. However, ordinary investors can respond by moderately adjusting their subjective views on long-term price ranges or increasing their exposure to mid- to long-term bull markets in a more gentle manner within their asset allocation, rather than simply replicating the expiration date, strike price, and leverage ratio.
When participating in the derivatives market, it is essential to remember that options are a highly specialized tool that not only requires judgment on the underlying asset but also a clear understanding of volatility, time value, and risk exposure. For most non-professional investors, a more prudent way to participate includes keeping positions within a bearable loss range, avoiding concentrated risks at a single point in time through time diversification, and limiting the proportion of options and high-leverage positions within the overall investment portfolio. Strictly distinguishing between "understanding signals" and "replicating operations" may be the most important insight this whale bet offers to retail investors.
A Bet and the Possibility of a Bull Market in Two Years
Considering the above parameters and market feedback, this $353 million nominal value bullish bet indeed draws a highly symbolic upper boundary between Bitcoin's long-term expectations and the current derivatives structure. On one hand, it reinforces the mainstream narrative that "a significant upward movement may still occur 1-2 years post-halving," while on the other hand, it quantifies this expectation within the price system through premiums, implied volatility, and the options surface, providing a rare sample for observing how the market prices extreme bull market scenarios.
However, the boundaries of interpreting this signal are also very clear. Since we still do not know whether the trading entity has constructed hedges or locked positions in other markets, we cannot deduce whether its true intention is a "naked bet without hedging exposure" or a part of a more complex structure. Under the premise of incomplete information, simply viewing this trade as a consensus that "all smart money is mindlessly bullish on $100,000" is neither rigorous nor may it guide risk-tolerant investors to make overly aggressive decisions.
From a neutral perspective, the price path of Bitcoin over the next one to two years will still depend on multiple variables, including the macro liquidity environment, the evolution of the industry's fundamentals, the regulatory process, and the cycles of market sentiment, while the evolution of the options market will continuously reshape its structure based on these factors. Key indicators to observe include: changes in open interest for call and put options at various strike prices expiring in 2026, sustained increases or declines in the implied volatility surface in the upper tail region, whether similar large long-dated options trades occur frequently, and the trading volume and depth in the spot and futures markets near key price levels. If more large funds position themselves in the same direction at similar durations and price levels in the future, this trade may be seen as the "prelude" to a new round of cycle pricing; if it ultimately fades to zero due to time decay, it will become a typical high-odds, high-uncertainty attempt in the options market, recorded as a footnote of this cycle rather than a definitive conclusion.
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