The world is bustling, all for profit; the world is bustling, all for profit to go! Hello everyone, I am your friend Lao Cui, focusing on digital currency market analysis, striving to convey the most valuable market information to the vast number of coin friends. Welcome to all coin friends' attention and likes, and reject any market smoke bombs!
Looking back, the market has indeed gone up. Under such a fierce market attack, Lao Cui usually does not participate; after two busy days, I take a moment to talk to everyone about the future trends. In the past two days, many events have occurred, especially in the front-end technology industry, the combination of AI and artificial intelligence, and the voices of major giants, even escalating to the collision of technology between China and the United States. It's very exciting, but the gold content is not high. Through multiple comparisons, it is actually a positive signal for the coin circle. Almost all combinations of AI and virtual elements have the shadow of blockchain. When AI truly arrives, perhaps we are really experiencing the fourth industrial revolution. Many friends have a resistance to AI industry owners, perhaps due to the nature of their work, or perhaps the emergence of AI makes everyone feel that their income will correspondingly decrease. For ordinary people, this impact is also powerful enough.
Especially seeing Musk's appearance of surgical robots, coupled with Tesla's FSD completing the first crossing in the U.S., and even including Jensen Huang's latest GPU computing power; the same goes for the domestic scene, where almost all signals point to the AI era possibly arriving in full. Don't overlook the intuitive trading of cryptocurrencies launched by X; this situation may also become Musk's layout, which is the preparation for SpaceX's listing this year, likely to connect with the coin circle, thus achieving a globally investable model. Once Musk really opens this up, the entire coin circle's market value will at least double, but it will definitely be accompanied by regulatory implementation, which is a bit scary. It depends on how the offense and defense switch. Regarding our previous estimated range, 91,000-95,000 has basically been broken in two days. The current support position has once again shifted to 95,000, with resistance above reaching the high of 98,000. Once it breaks 98,000, 100,000 will be unstoppable.
At the same time, don't think that the 98,000 resistance position is unstable. In the current pattern, there is a major issue: other currencies including Ethereum have not shown obvious bullish signs. Moreover, BTC has a waiting period. After each wave of pullbacks, there has not been a significant correction, and the attitude of altcoins is extremely interesting. You can review the entire growth process of altcoins from 24 to 25; SOL's launch on X and Ethereum are similar, and neither of these two currencies has shown violent surges. This year's gains, in terms of positive factors, have no currency that holds an advantage over SOL, but its performance is not satisfactory. This phenomenon can only indicate that more funds favor BTC, corroborating our viewpoint from the past two years that aside from BTC, other currencies are altcoins. Since compliance, Ethereum's performance has also been hard to describe; Ethereum is currently just lacking a story.
The feedback from the entire coin circle to Lao Cui is that it lacks competitiveness, which means new ideas are being born. The concept closest to us is still the PEPE concept, which is from 2024. The entire 2025 has not continued the story of the coin circle. Without the birth of concepts, there is no heat to follow, leading to the coin circle being absorbed into other markets. For retail investors, everyone prefers to hear stories of hundredfold or thousandfold coins, appreciating the birth of heroes, but currently, there are no heroes appearing, which is a regret for the coin circle. If we continue to rehash old ideas, it will form the logical loop we had before, where we still need to shout slogans. At this stage, we can only digest the previous slogans until a new concept is born, which will lead to the emergence of heroic coins. Before that, BTC will absorb a large amount of funds and can only rely on it to carry the weight forward, but this is not a good closed loop; a hundred flowers blooming is the spring.
From the market value perspective, when BTC breaks the 100,000 mark again, the entire market value will return to 2 trillion capital, and the subsequent pull-up funds will also lead to costs increasing exponentially. Capital will not flow in infinitely. The latest data can also reveal some clues; the BTC market is mostly wallets holding more than 10 coins continuously buying, while retail investors are in a selling phase. This is indeed a precursor to the start of a bull market, but ultimately, if retail investors cannot profit, it will result in no more retail funds entering, creating a vicious cycle. If retail investors cannot profit, there won't be much capital flowing into altcoins because retail investors have no funds. Are we all relying on the giants to intervene in altcoins? Currently, there is no information flowing out that BlackRock holds other currencies; they basically only hold mainstream currencies. You can observe these two waves of pullbacks; BTC rose from 90,000 to 98,000, which other currencies followed suit? Many currencies' increases are even less than BTC.
Therefore, for most coin friends, investing in small coins requires more periodic cooperation, meaning you need to have enough patience. BTC is always the best choice; as long as you hold it long-term, you can see certain returns in about six months to a year, while the cycle for small coins is three years without opening, and when it opens, it eats for three years. More and more giants in the coin circle are starting to talk about BTC's super cycle theory, and Lao Cui's view is also consistent with this, but it does not apply to other currencies, especially whether the altcoin season can come again? In Lao Cui's understanding, an altcoin season will appear, but the increase will not be too large. It has been like this before, and the current viewpoint is also the same. Lao Cui does not support many altcoins breaking previous highs; a 2-3 times increase is possible, but a hundredfold or thousandfold is wishful thinking. Without the birth of new ideas, it is impossible to have the support of giants. Even Ethereum and SOL have some burdens, let alone others.
Lao Cui's summary: Lao Cui has never felt that BTC has entered a bear market stage. For Lao Cui, 2026 will still see historically high levels; however, everyone needs to pay attention to the pattern of 2027. Most investment banks believe that 2027 will enter a rate hike phase, so for the financial sector, if there is a new high this year, then in the next 3-5 year cycle, it will enter a prolonged period of stagnation. This means that after making profits this year, everyone needs to reassess the entire financial market. Many financial markets have been growing since the interest rate cuts, which started in the first two years of Trump's presidency, and so far, it has been nearly 3-4 years. Most markets have experienced new highs, and everyone should be vigilant. If a wrong decision is made this year, it may require a long-term holding plan. This also includes the coin circle, including the upcoming listing of SpaceX this year. No matter how good a company is, it cannot withstand the overall market's stagnation. It is best to respond with short-term strategies. Even if BTC reaches a new high this year, Lao Cui will not be overly optimistic; if it can touch the high of 13-15, I will withdraw. The short-term pressure and support have been given to everyone; try to operate in a short-term manner and don't be too greedy! Before the new high this year, Lao Cui will definitely continue to be bullish, and we will see the trend afterward. Based on the current clues, Lao Cui does not see higher positions.
Original creation by WeChat Official Account: Lao Cui Talks About Coins. For assistance, please contact directly.
Lao Cui's message: Investing is like playing chess; a master can see five, seven, or even more than ten moves ahead, while a novice can only see two or three moves. The master considers the overall situation, strategizes for the big picture, and does not focus on one piece or one territory, aiming for the ultimate victory. The novice, however, fights for every inch, frequently switching between long and short positions, only competing for short-term gains, and often finds themselves trapped.
This material is for learning reference only and does not constitute trading advice. Trading based on this is at your own risk!
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