On a macro level, there are significant doubts in the current market regarding the independence of the Federal Reserve's policies, especially with the high uncertainty before the May leadership transition. The market is divided on whether the new chair will maintain a cautious rate-cutting stance (with expectations of 1-2 rate cuts within the year) or implement substantial cuts (5-6 rate cuts). Currently, the market has priced in no rate cuts for a month. Additionally, the CPI in December is expected to rebound due to base effects and changes in rental calculation methods. Some viewpoints suggest that core inflation may rise in the next 3-6 months, potentially reaching 4% by mid-year. In terms of employment, the number of new jobs added in 2025 is projected to be 584,000, marking the weakest level in non-recession years. However, wage growth continues to outpace inflation, indicating that companies are improving production efficiency while slowing demand. Furthermore, the Trump administration proposed purchasing $200 billion in mortgage-backed securities (MBS) to lower mortgage rates and further stimulate the real estate market, which has driven 30-year mortgage rates below 6%. In terms of asset performance, gold and silver have performed the best, while U.S. and Hong Kong stocks are relatively weaker. The combination of gold with U.S. stocks/traditional risk assets remains a stable investment logic, effectively hedging against the volatility of risk assets.

In the cryptocurrency market, Bitcoin (BTC) is concentrated in the $80,000 to $100,000 range, with on-chain data showing a continuous decline in realized profits, low turnover rates, and gradually weakening selling pressure. In the short term, BTC's rebound position may be around $99,000. Meanwhile, MicroStrategy significantly purchased 13,000 BTC, demonstrating institutional interest in BTC. However, at the same time, there was an outflow from BTC ETFs last week (about 7,500 BTC), while Ethereum (ETH) saw a slight inflow, indicating that market sentiment remains cautious. Currently, BTC's performance has decoupled from gold and silver; despite large purchase news, BTC's price has not followed the rise in gold and silver, reflecting that market sentiment is not extremely optimistic. In terms of on-chain narratives, there is currently a lack of a unified narrative like that of the AI sector, leading to a fragmented market, with the Chinese meme sector performing relatively well. Overall, the market is in a consolidation phase similar to June or July 2025, lacking a clear trend direction, and overall sentiment remains cautious.

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