Odaily Editorial Team Tea Talk (January 14)

CN
7 hours ago

This is an "informal" column from the Odaily editorial team. The author shares immediate thoughts and different perspectives on industry news, data, hot events, and their nuances; explores investment ideas and opportunity hypotheses that are still being validated—these may not necessarily be direct wealth codes, but could simply be the questions themselves; shares observations gained from interactions with industry practitioners; and presents materials that genuinely enhance our understanding, whether from internal or external sources.

The content of this column is based on the real investment and observation experiences of Odaily editorial team members, does not accept any form of commercial advertising, and does not constitute investment advice (after all, we are equally experienced in losing money). Its purpose is merely to expand perspectives and supplement information sources, rather than to create consensus. You are welcome to join the Odaily community (Telegram group, X official account) to exchange ideas, question, and engage in light-hearted banter.

golem (X: @web3_golem)

Introduction: Golem's whimsical ideas

Share: After the BSC Meme gained momentum last week, I briefly returned to the trenches, only to find that I could no longer adapt to the rhythm. In the end, I chose to hold onto the life K-line amidst the chaos, only to be caught off guard by a significant drop.

Playing BSC Meme now always gives me a feeling of continuously denying myself. From my aesthetic perspective, I find that the targets I consider good end up being lukewarm, from Hakimi to the life K-line. However, it would be irresponsible to simply attribute this to their weak association with CZ.

The Meme model currently forming on BSC is actually the consensus of the BSC community: when players generally believe that only Memes related to CZ have a future, this consensus transforms into real purchasing power, and funds and attention will naturally concentrate on those Memes initiated by CZ's tweets. Binance, which does not go against the community's will, can only list these coins.

As this model has developed, CZ himself is also powerless to change it. CZ stated yesterday that while he does not oppose Memes, blindly following Memes born from his tweets will definitely lead to losses. Even with such a statement, the comments below are still asking CZ what Memes he likes.

Therefore, whether Memes detached from CZ can break out on BSC fundamentally relies on the will of the BSC community.

Bcxiongdi (X: @bcxiongdi)

Introduction: Primarily playing on-chain PVP

Share: Recently, the liquidity and market sentiment on-chain have clearly warmed up, and one could even say there has been a small climax. Several "speedrun" opportunities this morning also indirectly confirmed this.

At this stage, the strength of many narratives essentially depends on the strength of the "lead" orders and the intensity of funds attracted to enter the market. Therefore, the focus should be on tokens brought by the lead that have the ability to attract capital, while also paying attention to the rhythm, taking profits and cutting losses in a timely manner to avoid emotional overreach.

Currently, the main focus is still on the BSC and SOL chains:

  • BSC: Mainly looking at Meme derivatives related to "Double Saints" and Memes called out by the on-chain lead;
  • SOL: Recently mainly revolving around topics like Claude AI and robots, representing a small market leaning towards AI.

Wenser (@wenser2010)

Introduction: Tea server, crypto soy sauce party, media observer

Share: 1. Currently, I don't see any positive news on the information and liquidity front, and I don't quite understand the main driving force behind this wave of increase. Personally, it doesn't feel like a rebound from overselling, but rather a bit like a trap for inducing buying and then liquidating shorts;

  1. The nomination of the new Federal Reserve chairman and the CLARITY Act do not have definitive news, which also means there are asymmetric opportunities on Polymarket. In a certain sense, I feel that prediction markets like Polymarket are actually no different from pre-market trading; they price in advance and harvest early, but pre-market trading looks at liquidity depth, while prediction markets look at insider information and anomalous orders;

  2. The MEME wave seems to have passed its peak under the influence of the revival of established Memes and the explosive popularity of Chinese Memes on BSC. The next step is to see if it will blindly rotate into AI-related concept coins; the coin and stock aspects still seem half-alive, with a few mining companies showing decent weekly gains, but they are only suitable for short-term trading, not long-term holding.

  3. The commercial aviation sector in A-shares has experienced a pullback, while blue chips and some AI applications have risen in response. However, in the long run, as judged by an internet media outlet in my circle, "as long as Blue Arrow is not listed, commercial aviation will always have market dreams and speculation expectations," which can be monitored in the long term.

Suzz (@uu01194636)

Introduction: Adhering to long-termism, I choose to short new coins

Share: Last week, I bought shares of Zhizhu Port. We are now in the vibe coding era, and as the first stock of a large model, Zhizhu, being a domestic large model, gives me a sense of "stability." As long as the overall direction is correct, this foundational-level company will reap the benefits of the entire industry. In the current market, having the right logic is not as important as aligning with truly hardcore players. Holding this "ticket" to the large model era gives me confidence; the rest is just about seeing how high it can go.

Today, I went long on BEAT. This coin currently feels like one of those highly controlled assets that could take off at any moment. Once such a highly controlled asset gains momentum, it can lead to exponential growth. I have already put my position in; I am not asking for anything else this time, just seeking that heart-pounding feedback. Entering at this position offers a favorable risk-reward ratio.

Azuma (@azuma_eth)

Introduction: Learning a lot, still a novice

Share: Recently, I am testing market-making on Polymarket around upcoming matches, and my strategy is roughly as follows:

➡️ Find matches starting within a week (especially key matchups that are expected to have good trading volume)

➡️ Then check how much the sum of the sell prices on both sides differs from 100 cents (the larger the difference, the greater the potential);

➡️ Then use Polymarket's split mechanism to actively divide the funds into bilateral shares and place sell orders;

➡️ If both sides can be sold, the arbitrage is successful; if only one side is sold, I need to handle the other side before the match starts (whether selling or buying the other side to merge, generally, liquidity will improve before the match starts, and in most cases, I can handle it within the cost line), to prevent entering a one-sided position.

Currently, my experience indicates that there is a certain profit margin, and it can effectively enrich interactive behavior and amplify trading volume; the downside is that the capital capacity is not large, and there are times when remaining unilateral shares cannot be processed within the cost line.

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