Original | Odaily Planet Daily (@OdailyChina)
Recently, the prediction market platform Polymarket has reached an exclusive partnership with Dow Jones Media Group. According to the agreement, the real-time prediction probabilities provided by Polymarket will become the only source of prediction market data used across all consumer platforms under Dow Jones, covering various sections such as its dedicated data modules, event pages, and customized profit calendars.
Dow Jones Media Group owns well-known financial media such as The Wall Street Journal (WSJ), Barron's, and MarketWatch, with The Wall Street Journal being one of the most credible media outlets in global financial information dissemination. This means that in the future, ordinary readers browsing the news will not only see traditional expert analyses or opinion polls but will also have access to probability predictions based on "collective intelligence"—covering various scenarios such as elections, economic trends, and cultural issues.
Moreover, this collaboration is expected to bring new changes to news reporting: the prediction market serves as a tool to supplement the "truth," presenting a set of probability results formed by real money betting, providing the public with a more three-dimensional and timely reference for trend judgments.
Dow Jones: An Unusual "Mainstream Endorsement"
Unlike typical media collaborations, the symbolic significance of Dow Jones Group may far exceed traffic or exposure. As one of the most influential financial news organizations globally, the primary audience of Dow Jones media is not the general public but institutional investors, professional traders, high-net-worth individuals, and policymakers and business decision-makers. This determines that its content system is known for being prudent, conservative, and verifiable, with extremely strict standards for information source selection.
From this perspective, the systematic embedding of Polymarket's prediction data into The Wall Street Journal not only represents product-level integration but also serves as a recognition: the prediction market is no longer just an entertainment or speculative tool but a source of information with certain reference value. At least within Dow Jones's editorial system, it has been placed in the context of "serious news," rather than gambling or marginalized platforms.
In fact, prior to Polymarket, Kalshi had already reached collaborations with CNN and CNBC in early December: for example, CNN's data analysts would cite Kalshi's real-time probability data in political and public event reports; CNBC displayed Kalshi's brand ticker in some programs and integrated related content on digital platforms. Although these initiatives have brought prediction markets into the public eye, they are essentially fragmented multi-party collaborations.
In contrast, Polymarket's agreement is an integrated exclusive collaboration: all platforms under Dow Jones will uniformly adopt Polymarket as the sole data source, covering comprehensive embedding from print to digital content. Therefore, Polymarket's exclusive partnership with Dow Jones Media Group is stronger and has a greater impact.
Why Now? The Prediction Market Proved Itself in 2025
Although prediction markets have existed for several years, they experienced explosive growth only in 2025. Data shows that Polymarket and Kalshi set historical performance records in 2025, with a cumulative trading volume approaching $40 billion, and both companies achieving valuations in the billions. This scale leap has transformed prediction markets from entertainment speculation into financial infrastructure.
More importantly, during the 2024 election period, Polymarket outperformed traditional polls with high accuracy (especially in swing states). It priced Trump's winning probability at over 95% early on, while many polls still showed a "dead heat." Over the past year, the prediction market has proven that monetary incentives filter out noise, requiring participants to "put their money where their mouth is" to back their judgments, making incorrect judgments "costly." For this reason, prediction markets have truly gained the qualification to enter the mainstream information system. They are no longer simply viewed as "gambling" but are seen as an efficient "aggregator of collective intelligence."
Removing the "Gambling Label" Does Not Equal Completing Institutional Transformation
However, being accepted by mainstream media does not mean that prediction markets have completed the institutional transformation from "gambling forms" to "financial tools."
At the regulatory level, there are still significant discrepancies in this field. Taking Kalshi as an example, although it holds relevant licenses from the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), in the eyes of some state regulatory agencies, prediction contracts are still regarded as gambling activities, especially in places like Nevada, where disputes over their legality continue. Recently, Kalshi lost a preliminary injunction to prevent enforcement by Nevada regulators just before Thanksgiving and is seeking a court order to continue blocking state regulatory actions during the appeal. The court's lifting of the injunction means that if Kalshi continues to operate in Nevada, it will face potential legal risks, including being deemed an illegal gambling platform and facing lawsuits. Nevada regulators accuse Kalshi of "continuing to engage in illegal activities" without a state gambling license and emphasize that similar companies like Crypto.com and Robinhood have agreed to suspend local operations during the appeal.
On Polymarket, recent accurate predictions regarding U.S. actions against Venezuela have raised questions about insider trading, sparking discussions about the regulatory gaps in prediction markets. Insider trading is illegal in traditional financial markets, but it is unregulated in prediction markets like Polymarket, and there is currently no unified, clear mechanism to define whether such behavior constitutes a violation.
Conclusion
The collaboration between Polymarket and Dow Jones does not mean that the regulatory issues surrounding prediction markets have been resolved, but it at least conveys a signal: prediction markets are being used by mainstream media as a new information tool, gradually shedding marginalized labels such as gambling and betting platforms. When The Wall Street Journal begins to display prediction probabilities, this transformation can no longer be ignored.
免责声明：本文章仅代表作者个人观点，不代表本平台的立场和观点。本文章仅供信息分享，不构成对任何人的任何投资建议。用户与作者之间的任何争议，与本平台无关。如网页中刊载的文章或图片涉及侵权，请提供相关的权利证明和身份证明发送邮件到support@aicoin.com，本平台相关工作人员将会进行核查。
