Friends still waiting for the Supreme Court's decision can wash up and sleep, as it has been delayed until January 14.

Moreover, the Trump administration is also preparing a backup plan in case the tariffs are overturned. If the Supreme Court rules against the president's global tariffs, the Trump administration has a backup plan that includes other legal authorizations under Section 301 and Section 122 of the Trade Act to restore tariffs.

The maximum tariff rate under Section 122 is 15%, and the law clearly states that the additional import fees imposed under Section 122 cannot exceed 15%. If Trump intends to impose a 20% or 60% tariff (targeting China) using IEEPA, switching to Section 122 would immediately reduce it to 15%. Until the subsequent Section 301 investigation catches up to make up the difference.

Therefore, the combination of Sections 301 and 122 will be more complex than the original IEEPA. IEEPA can adjust tariffs for all countries at once, while switching to Sections 301 or 122 will change the tariffs from a "one-button adjustment by the president" to "process execution," which will bring several very practical changes:

First, the scope will be forced to narrow. IEEPA can be made into a global, one-time, uniform tariff tool, while the logic of Section 301 revolves around unfair trade practices, making it more suitable for a list-based approach targeting "country + category + tariff number," rather than a one-size-fits-all for all countries.

Second, Section 301 requires investigation, justification, hearings, and the issuance of lists, which is clearly a slower process. Although Section 122 can be faster, it is essentially a short-term transitional tool, so the more likely path is to first use Section 122 as a relay and then gradually switch to Section 301. Considering that the current White House administration may have already completed the steps for the Section 301 investigation, the switch may happen more quickly.

Third, IEEPA is more politically oriented, with limited maneuvering space for businesses, while Sections 301 and 122 are more technical in execution, providing some operational space for businesses. This means that the short-term impact after the switch may be weaker than IEEPA, but in the long term, it will reflect more as ongoing friction in cost structure and supply chain aspects.

Overall, tariffs after the switch may not necessarily decrease, but they will become more detailed and predictable. The short-term emotional impact on the market may be alleviated, but in the medium to long term, the differences from IEEPA will be more reflected in "form" and "rhythm," rather than direction.

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