The Qinglan Crypto Class is starting! BTC's four cycles + dual perspectives on news, guiding you to catch the rhythm of the crypto world:
Let's look at the charts of several cycles together, combined with the news, and the current situation is a bit subtle.
Daily Chart (Long-term Trend): The price is stuck between the 5-day moving average (about 92224) and the 10-day moving average (about 90976), unable to move. Overall, it is still a broad recovery trend after the big drop last November. The 20-day moving average (around 89417) below is a significant support level. To the upside, the previous high area between 95000 and 96000 poses strong resistance. To the downside, the psychological level of 90000 and the 20-day line provide dual support. The MACD is above the zero line, but the red bars are shortening, indicating weakening momentum; the RSI is around 53, showing a lukewarm state. In terms of news, Bitcoin ETFs have recently seen an outflow of 729 million USD, and traditional giants like Morgan Stanley plan to enter the market, but the short-term pressure on funds is real, casting a shadow over the rebound. Therefore, the long-term trend can be defined as "high-level oscillation and repair," with an unclear direction, requiring a breakout to wait for.
4-Hour Chart (Mid-term Rhythm): This view is clearer. After a spike to 94789 on January 5, the price has been in a clear downward channel. Currently, the price is near the lower boundary of the channel (about 91000) and is finding support, attempting to rebound. However, the MA5, MA10, and MA20 moving averages have formed a bearish arrangement (with MA5 being the lowest), and the price is suppressed below the moving averages, indicating a typical weak structure. The MACD fast and slow lines have continued to decline after a death cross below the zero line, and although the green bars (bearish momentum) have shortened, they are still overall underwater. The key resistance level is in the 92500-93000 area (near the previous small platform and the MA20 moving average). In terms of news, internal conflicts within the Zcash team and the hacking of Truebit have intensified the overall risk-averse sentiment in the market, leading to capital flowing out of high-risk assets, which is unfavorable for Bitcoin's rapid strengthening. The mid-term trend leans towards "oscillation with a bearish bias," in a consolidation phase after a decline.
1-Hour Chart & 15-Minute Chart (Short-term Game): This is even more interesting. On the 1-hour chart, there was a violent rebound from 89311 to 91469 last night (January 8), but then it fell into a narrow range around 91100, unable to go up or down. The 15-minute chart shows that the price has been oscillating back and forth in the less than 500 USD range of 91000-91500 for several hours, with trading volume also shrinking. This indicates that both bulls and bears have reached a temporary weak balance above the 90000 level, and are waiting. The short-term moving averages (MA5, MA10) are converging, the MACD is hovering near the zero line, and the RSI is swinging around 50, all typical characteristics of a consolidating market. In terms of news, the Qinglan Morning Report mentioned "institutional games, foggy beacons," which is very apt. The closed-door meetings on regulatory bills between Wall Street and the crypto industry (news 2, 11) have made progress but have not fully materialized, and events like Trump refusing to pardon SBF (news 3, 35) have left the market in a state of "waiting for the shoe to drop."
Comprehensive Prediction and Trading Ideas: Therefore, looking at it comprehensively, the short, medium, and long-term are currently caught in a "resonant oscillation." The long-term is a repair oscillation, the mid-term is a weak oscillation after a decline, and the short-term is a narrow oscillation of balance between bulls and bears. No cycle provides a clear one-sided guide.
The key levels are very clear:
Key resistance above: 92500 (4-hour MA20 and previous platform), 95000 (daily previous high area).
Key support below: 90000 (psychological level + 15-minute multiple testing level), 89400 (daily MA20), 88000 (4-hour previous low).
Our trading ideas:
Oscillation market thinking: In the main range of 91000-92500, the main strategy is to buy low and sell high. Approaching 91500-92000 with stagnation can consider light short positions, with a stop loss above 92500; if it stabilizes after a pullback to 90000-90500, light long positions can be considered, with a stop loss below 89800. Position sizes must be light, with quick entries and exits.
Follow the breakout: If the price stabilizes above 92500 with increased volume, it means the short-term oscillation may end, and it is expected to test 94000 or even higher, allowing for long positions to follow the trend. If it effectively breaks below 90000 (especially if the daily close is below), the lower edge of the oscillation is broken, and the next target may look towards 88000, allowing for short positions to follow.
Core points: The current market is heavily influenced by news, especially regarding U.S. regulatory dynamics and institutional capital flows. Before the direction is clear, avoid chasing highs and cutting losses. Maintain patience, wait for the market to choose its direction, and then follow.
For more quantitative breakdowns of the impact of real-time news on market sentiment, it has been updated in my Qinglan Crypto Class, qinglan.org. Finally, Sister Qinglan leaves you with a trading quote: "Markets are born in despair, move forward in hesitation, and end in celebration. The current oscillation is the best time to train patience and discipline."
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