"Strengthen Yourself in the Crypto World: A 26-Year Coin Purchase List, Stop Eating Shit!"

Last night, I couldn't sleep, tears soaked my sheets as I shouted at the night sky, "Is the crypto world always going to be stuck with these garbage coins? They all need to die together; even the roots of the leeks are gone."

I think I should educate users, especially newcomers, about which coins are still worth buying and which ones are not—because only by refusing to eat shit can we force the crypto world to develop healthily, and compel the manipulators to realize that making people eat shit is no longer profitable. They need to find ways to create projects that are genuinely useful and generate income for people; only then does the crypto world have a future.

I will express this as cautiously as possible, aiming for those who read it to make money rather than lose it.

1. Current Situation and Coin Selection Logic

In the current crypto world, there are mainly two activities: "creating shit" and "feeding shit."

Creating shit refers to project teams without profit capabilities, telling a story, spending some money, getting listed on some exchanges, and then waiting for the leeks to take over, profiting from market-making and cutting both VCs and leeks. The only ones making money in this process are the exchanges, so if this continues, the industry will definitely cool down.

In the past, this way of playing was acceptable because the crypto world was a big casino, and as long as we had the chance to make money, that was enough.

Back then, there were very few coins, and everyone had little investment experience; there was no concept of high or low valuation. Once a coin was listed, people rushed in, and with some rushing, there were price fluctuations, leading to some making money and others losing. That was just how it was.

At that time, we didn’t understand, but we had beautiful dreams, truly believing that the crypto world was changing the future. But now, seeing the flourishing development of AI and the US stock market, while we are arguing over which pile of shit to list on exchanges, we finally understand how ridiculous, sad, and lamentable we are in the crypto world.

Why is this way of playing no longer viable? Because there are now too many coins.

Those with backgrounds follow Binance, from issuing coins, marketing, to getting listed on Binance in one go; those without backgrounds can also launch on PUMPFUN and then sell shit on Twitter.

From five years ago to now, the number of coins has increased by 100,000 times, but the number of people has peaked—Binance's annual report states that one in every twenty people uses Binance. This is good for Binance, but it’s also why the industry is starting to feel unsustainable. The growth of newcomers is ultimately declining, and when there are fewer and fewer newcomers in the industry, problems will arise.

We cannot expect anyone to do anything; that is a very foolish behavior—who cares about the barking of a stray dog on the roadside when there are rich people feasting?

People need to strengthen themselves, and the crypto world needs to strengthen itself.

The first step to self-strengthening is for fewer people to take over garbage coins.

Next, I will guide you from "how to choose" to "what to choose," providing you with a comprehensive article to navigate the crypto world with ease.

I’m here, let’s go!

2. Several Evaluation Principles

In this section, I will explain in detail, which may be a bit challenging for beginners to read. Although I recommend you take the time to understand it, if you don’t understand it now, you can jump directly to the third section for the coin list.

1. Must Have Revenue

If a crypto project has no real income and no users, what is the purpose of its coin? How does it empower this coin? It’s useless; once it’s listed on a major exchange, it’s just waiting for you to take over, and then you hope the idiots in the next group will take over from you?

Stop! Don’t play with such projects anymore.

When a new project comes out, don’t listen to its jargon that you don’t understand. You need to understand great companies like Apple and Tesla, and you don’t need to know a bunch of letters and strange terms, right?

If a project has no income and no users, it’s basically garbage. Don’t care about the other party’s background or what exchanges it’s listed on—because those backgrounds and exchanges are there to cut you, not to make you rich.

Remember: the bigger the background, the harsher the cut.

2. Must Have Development

Just looking at revenue and user numbers is not enough; project teams have learned to inflate their numbers.

Back in the day, the four kings of L2 were impressive, with amazing data. What happened? Once they stopped inflating, they became ghost towns, and some haven’t even issued coins yet.

So, you need to look at whether there is long-term development from a common-sense perspective, not just at the data.

The current crypto world is such that when a project has innovation, a bunch of clones come out immediately, some with backgrounds and some without. Everyone uses coin issuance to attract people to inflate, creating a false prosperity.

If you want to make money, learn from the big players who are profiting, and go for it; don’t take over. Projects with real development are those that, after inflating, actually have users, or even from the start, don’t need to inflate—there are no points, no PUA, just something for you to use.

Some say this is the characteristic of WEB3, but no WEB2 project needed to inflate; all that came out were impressive projects. Why is that? From a common-sense perspective, you’ll understand because those who truly want to do projects don’t want fake data.

Wang Xing of Meituan stood out from thousands of group-buying websites, and one thing that impressed me deeply was that everyone else was faking it. The data and traffic were many times that of Meituan, while Wang Xing insisted on not using any fake data, like raising prices first and then giving discounts. He believed the market was large and aimed to provide higher quality products for everyone, which allowed him to come out on top—he did it right.

If you want to buy in the secondary market, how should you proceed? Go back to the principles mentioned in this section and evaluate them against each other. If you buy in the secondary market, you need to know who is shouting about this project, your cost must be lower than the market, and you need to assess whether there are more idiots to take over, and you also need to know when to take profits.

Beginners don’t understand anything; don’t buy based on my method. If you don’t understand evaluation and dynamic observation, just buy Bitcoin.

3. Coins Must Be Useful

A project can make a lot of money, but a coin is not a stock, and you are not a shareholder, so the coin is still garbage. Don’t touch any of them. In this case, the coin is a speculative item, with no relation to the project’s fundamentals, relying entirely on how the idiots think and act.

For example, if a top influencer overseas says they are bullish on ZEC, everyone rushes in. At this point, it’s the early believers who make money. As for the project itself having no income and the coin being useless, you don’t need to study that much; just believe in the cut first and then believe in the project.

But if there’s no income and the coin is useless, and you still take over, you’ll definitely wonder: why did it not rise as soon as I got in?

So, with a long-term mindset, you need to return to my principles: how much money does the project make? Does it have a future? Is the coin linked to anything?

4. How to Calculate Profit and Coin Price?

Taking the leading perpetual contract project $HYPE as an example, let’s calculate. By the way, this is the best altcoin project in the crypto world, but if you bought it at over 50, aren’t you stunned now? The estimation method in this section is suitable for beginners to study carefully.

For example, if I decide to buy HYPE, how do I evaluate this project that has revenue, users, and a future?

Step 1: Look at how much it is currently earning and what its fully diluted market cap is.

If $HYPE earns $2 billion a year, and the fully diluted market cap is $20 billion, then we can consider the fully diluted market cap/revenue = 10, and the coin price is around 20. Compared to tech stocks, a PE of 10 is not high, indicating it might be okay.

But if it’s not earning $2 billion a year, then a price below 20 seems reasonable, right?

But why did it rise above 50? This part is detached from the fundamentals, and there are many reasons, mainly:

• It’s the leader, so it’s easier for people to FOMO, hence the rise, especially since there’s a lot of dumb money in the crypto world.
• It has a 100% revenue buyback for tokens, and the order book is thin, with daily buy orders of $2 million. As long as not many people sell that day, it’s easy to rise.

So, rising to 50 is very reasonable in a bull market context.

But can you buy it now? You need to consider some new internal variables:

For example, the team’s tokens are starting to unlock. Although daily buybacks are still ongoing, if the unlocked tokens are worth $10 million and the buyback is $2 million, you can understand that the selling pressure is $8 million. Currently, HYPE is facing selling pressure far greater than buybacks.

Additionally, you need to consider external variables:

First Variable: External competition is starting to intensify.

For example, LIGHTER and others, with similar team backgrounds and financial strength, and institutional investments, HYPE is like COINBASE, while LIT is somewhat like ROBINHOOD; plus, CZ’s ASTER and a bunch of new perpetual contracts.

This leads to a problem: external competition is becoming increasingly fierce, and is this competition effective? Some are, just look at the on-chain data; HYPE’s market dominance has been significantly reduced.

Moreover, competition will only become more intense, making it harder to navigate.

If you want to find a girlfriend, she was originally a fairy, but suddenly five others want to be your girlfriend too, and they are fighting over you. You better not rush in, or you might choose the wrong person easily…

Second Variable: Limited existing funds, who can eat the incremental funds is still uncertain.

The existing funds in the crypto world are limited, meaning there are only so many people and so much money in the crypto world. What is the upper limit of the scale of smart money + dumb money combined?

I think using TRUMP as a benchmark is relatively accurate, which is about $70 billion; after that, there’s no money left.

The perpetual contract sector is far less interesting and appealing than TRUMP, so its upper limit might be around $40-50 billion.

This just happens to be near the market cap of HYPE during its pullback. Now, with intense competition, it’s similar to the battle between Meituan and JD.com, where everyone’s stocks are falling, and combined with the bear market, a total market cap of around $30 billion is very reasonable.

In a total market cap of $30 billion:

If there are only one or two targets, then the leader can be $25 billion.

But what if there are ten targets? How much does the leader account for?

So, if it’s just internal competition, there aren’t many ways to make money: mainly go for coins that haven’t been issued yet, but there will definitely be counter-cuts later, so not participating is also an option; secondly, look for which project can capture the most future retail flow from the US stock market. If the leeks in the crypto world stop being cut and start cutting retail investors in the US stock market, then that project can emerge.

5. Summary

In one sentence: whether a coin is worth buying depends on how much it can earn now, how much it can earn in the future, and how much of that money will be used to drive the coin price up, while also dynamically observing how intense the internal and external competition is.

3. Coin Selection List

Catching three or four coins in a round of market can be enough to turn things around, but getting one wrong can lead to significant losses. The list I provide is definitely not exhaustive; there may be some decent projects I haven’t mentioned, as I wrote this while hungry. I will update any thoughts I have in the comments section later.

If you have good recommendations, please share them in the comments—however, regardless of who recommends, don’t make judgments lightly, including the coins I selected. You need to look at the models I mentioned above—they are not universal formulas and may have some mechanical aspects that don’t apply to certain projects, like the rising logic of public chains, but overall, they are meant to avoid eating shit.

Note: You must read the text regarding the coins. Just because I wrote the name of a coin doesn’t mean it can be bought now! A good project also needs a good price!

You should use the valuation methods I mentioned above. For example, using the above methods, I bottomed out HYPE at 10 and sold it at over 30 and 50 (the logic for buying and selling is detailed in my group; it’s not just me bragging to elevate myself). Now, let’s start:

1. BTC

Newcomers may overlook it, but if you can only choose one coin in the crypto world, it must be this one. Although it seems stagnant now, it could quickly surge to 200,000 in the future.

If you are a newbie with no knowledge, buying this coin at 80-90,000 won’t lead to losses or scams. Start with this, while you frantically catch up on learning, and buy less of other coins; you can’t go wrong.

2. ETH

The biggest future development in the crypto world comes from institutions bringing US stocks and bonds on-chain. Once on-chain, Wall Street and retail investors can play with on-chain stocks, which is ETH’s biggest advantage, making it the second in the crypto world.

However, I’ve never been particularly interested in it, so I personally don’t hold much. I’ve also researched the US stock market, and if viewed as a tech stock, it doesn’t look that great using my models.

ETH has a market cap of several hundred billion, infinite issuance, and the staked big players will receive more and more coins. Buying this coin feels a bit like taking over; I personally find it uninteresting. Those who are optimistic now are very FOMO, thinking it’s a civilization-level innovation and a good thing, but I’m not sure if the coin price has enough certainty.

For example, right now its market cap is higher than Musk's aerospace company SPACEX, which earns a lot of money every year and is set to earn even more in the future, building bases on Mars and turning humanity into a multi-planetary species, mining vast amounts of gold in outer space. At a similar price, I would definitely buy SPACEX.

The recent rise of ETH is mainly due to top institutions from both the East and West shouting and buying together, but the fundamentals of ETH won’t change because of this. If you believe in it, get on board early and find a position to exit when the time is right; having money in your hands is what matters.

As for the future outlook of ETH, such as becoming the base for on-chain finance, I agree, but I still only look at how much ETH can earn. How much of that money can be used to buy back ETH and create buying pressure? Otherwise, it’s just a game of emotions and consensus—this is something I, as someone who has made the most money in this field, am very familiar with. My choice is that I won’t gamble on such large targets with big manipulators; you can shout, play, and earn.

3. BNB

$BNB is still the best among all CEX platform coins.

However, I no longer recommend it much. The future is the era of on-chain, and in five years, the largest trading venue may no longer be Binance, but rather on-chain exchanges. As a holder of BNB, the original benefits of holding BNB, receiving token airdrops, and gaining from both sides have now turned into a repetitive cycle of eating shit, which is no longer interesting. Additionally, Binance's business model relies on continuously bringing in new users, with contracts and garbage coins; this zero-sum game is bound to decline after reaching its peak.

But note, I’m not saying BNB can’t rise. With high control and the wealthiest institutions in the crypto world, it will definitely rise, but it’s just no longer my ideal target. If I had to choose between ETH and BNB, I would definitely choose ETH, but I haven’t chosen ETH either.

As for $OKB, it has become a classic but lacks empowerment, so it can temporarily be classified as a garbage coin.

4. Other Public Chains

Currently, they don’t hold much value, including SOL and other coins. Many have very aggressive inflation; for example, SOL's price has dropped significantly, but its market cap is about the same as its peak. If MEME fails, I won’t play with it for now.

Public chains are likely to become important but not very profitable infrastructure because if you siphon off too many users, they will leave. Fast speeds and zero fees will become the standard.

5. MEME Coins

I suggest not buying any MEME coins for now. Anyone currently promoting any MEME coin is essentially saying, "Come eat my shit."

I don’t see any opportunities at the moment. If you want to play, a small bet for fun is fine, just like buying a scratch-off ticket for entertainment; there’s nothing wrong with that.

Next, let’s talk about altcoins. 99.99% of altcoins are garbage with no income and no future. I’ll pick out a few that you can slowly buy a little of; holding them long-term should not lead to losses—ideally, you should use the valuation methods from the second section to find a suitable price.

I can only tell you about good targets, but I can’t tell you good prices—because for each coin, you need to look at the models above, considering the coin itself while dynamically monitoring external competition and the external environment. Basically, good projects need to be observed as they progress.

What if you don’t want to observe as you go? Just buy BTC; after buying, go play, go to work, and see what happens.

6. On-Chain Perpetual Contract Sector

This sector is a real casino, with income and buybacks. The biggest opportunities in the future will come from external traffic, specifically from Wall Street institutions and retail investors in the US stock market.

$HYPE

This one is relatively simple; I’ve said a lot above. I think around 10 is a price that shouldn’t be too hard to get stuck at for a while, unless there are major issues or very strong competitors in the future.

The selling pressure from unlocks over the next year is significant. Many leeks hope the team won’t sell, which is actually a selfish and unreasonable thought. Team members should receive returns, and selling is better—if you really believe in it, you shouldn’t hope they don’t sell; you should hope for a lower price.

$LIT

In this sector, LIT is a direct competitor to HYPE and even has greater advantages, just because it came later.

The team background is the same top-tier quantitative + genius, but HYPE only targets smart money and whales, focusing on large clients and institutions; LIT is more like ROBINHOOD, targeting retail investors.

HYPE has no VC and follows a community route; LIT has partnered with market makers and ROBINHOOD investors. The founder is also a classmate and fellow villager of the ROBINHOOD boss, with a strong relationship, overall following a Wall Street institutional and compliant approach.

In terms of architecture, HYPE has its own chain and ecosystem, closed within the HYPE world; LIT is part of the open ETH ecosystem, which can directly accommodate all RWA assets in the future. For example, hundreds of billions of funds borrowed on AAVE can be used directly in the LIT system under the security of ETH (even if LIT ceases operations, the assets still belong to you, which is great).

The cost of extracting from LIT is about $0.5, so in the future, prices below $2 should be quite good.

If you want to start positioning in the perpetual contract sector now, LIT is only 1/10 of HYPE, but its growth potential may exceed that of HYPE.

However, be cautious; just like HYPE a year ago, when LIT has a large number of unlocks in a year, it will need to be reassessed. Altcoins need to be dynamically observed. Currently, I believe LIT has significant cost-effectiveness compared to HYPE within a year.

But the risk of $LIT lies in acquiring market share. The most optimistic expectation (which AI considers highly probable) is that ROBINHOOD’s on-chain order book will directly use LIT. Its own public chain can serve as a settlement layer, but it’s unclear how much ROBINHOOD invested in LIT and what percentage of shares they hold. If they hold a large stake, it could be beneficial. At that time, this round of valuation seemed to be $1.5 billion, and now the market cap is over $2 billion—but be wary, as these are some optimistic expectations from the community. Even if it’s true, it’s still early, and it’s uncertain how likely this is, which poses significant risk factors for newcomers.

As for ASTER, I think it’s a garbage project that has a 99% chance of failing. I mentioned before that Binance wants to support a puppet to compete with HYPE, which is bound to fail. I might have some bias here, but I don’t see any advantages in ASTER. If it’s not compliant, it can’t compete with HYPE, and if it is compliant, it can’t compete with LIT.

Of course, from the perspective of the sector, it seems that the perpetual contract sector has passed its most attractive and beautiful time and is no longer the best choice.

Now, I recommend going directly to the official site to buy LIT, as the depth on other exchanges is too small.

http://app.lighter.xyz/?referral=DY789

Newcomers, please note: Unless you have researched these extensively, do not buy high-risk tokens like $LIT. You don’t have the ability to track continuously and won’t be able to evaluate them. My article is not specifically written for you, so please only buy BTC. Remember!

Prediction Sector

1. POLYMARKET: You can start participating with small amounts to play around and earn some small profits; this is suitable for newcomers. Experts and large funds are currently selling equity at a $12 billion valuation off-market. I tend to think it’s also a buy, as it has significant income and great development potential, which is quite good.

2. Other Prediction Markets: They are all clones and are of no use.

Such projects can be created by gathering a team of a million in Nanshan, and then they can be listed on major exchanges without needing to empower or explain revenue. If you want to play, try to keep costs low; if you want to buy, believe in the cut first and then believe in the project, and run away quickly.

The prediction sector is a super strong sector; it’s not purely zero-sum. I believe it will be larger than perpetual contracts in the future.

DEFI Sector

$AAVE is a very good target, but its price is still quite high. You only need to look at how much it earns in a year and what its market cap is. I’m too lazy to check, but its PE is much higher than HYPE.

So this is a target that can be tracked and focused on long-term. However, its risk lies in how much it can capture when US stocks and bonds go on-chain. BlackRock and JPMorgan will likely do their own lending—brokerages all have lending, and they will definitely do it on-chain in the future.

AAVE is included as a good target because it is the best in the DEFI sector of our crypto world, with years of safety and hundreds of billions of assets stored in it, engaging in on-chain lending, very active, and stable, with steady income and the token having a certain utility.

But altcoins all carry risks! They need to be dynamically observed, and newcomers should be extremely cautious.

That’s all I can think of for now.

Projects like ONDO are securitized tokens with top-tier backgrounds, but the tokens are currently useless, and there are still a lot waiting to be unlocked. Moreover, after US stocks go on-chain, it may no longer be through this project that they can empower, so the uncertainty is quite strong.

AI Sector

$VIRTUAL is also a project with revenue, and the team is very resilient. I really like this young team; they seem to be one of the few that continue to explore new things and work hard for the token even through bull and bear markets, which is impressive.

However, I find it difficult to value this project because the uncertainty is very high, and estimating it using revenue is not easy.

But it’s worth long-term attention. After a significant drop, consider buying a little, as it’s a good project, but I can’t say what a good price is.

$WLD is currently facing significant issues in its offline expansion, and the selling pressure from that expansion will continue. Keep an eye on it long-term; it’s also early in terms of income, with all selling pressure, but it’s a good project, especially since it’s run by the boss of OPENAI.

Privacy Coins

ZEC is very popular, but I think it’s better to wait for the bear market and see if it drops to around 100 before discussing it. Right now, it’s mainly big players shouting, and fools taking over. The future belongs to compliance; even the likes of Maduro have been taken down, so what privacy is there?

Believe in the cut first, then believe in the project. If you can’t believe in the project, don’t believe; missing out won’t kill you.

That’s all I can think of for now. I’ll add more in the comments if I think of anything else.

Finally, some may say there aren’t many coins here, so there’s nothing to play with? If you want to throw money around, there are a billion coins waiting for you to buy. But if you don’t want to throw money away, just buy good coins first. Within six months, more and more people in the crypto world will be buying US stock targets, with plenty of short-term 5-10x opportunities. And once you get stuck, holding on often allows you to recover.

In the future, all exchanges, especially on-chain, will be filled with US stock targets. Why rush to eat shit?

END

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