Original｜Odaily Planet Daily (@OdailyChina)
As 2025 comes to a close, the prediction market sector has also provided its answers.
According to data from PredictionIndex.xyz, the total trading volume of the prediction market sector in 2025 reached $50.25 billion. Excluding Kalshi and Polymarket, the trading volume of the rest of the ecosystem was $1.25 billion. Additionally, data released by KalshiData shows that Kalshi's total nominal trading volume for the year reached $23.8 billion, a year-on-year increase of 1108%. With both Polymarket and Kalshi achieving valuations exceeding $10 billion, these results undoubtedly inject a strong dose of confidence into the capital markets and user base, making the prediction market sector a continued focus in the crypto space in 2026.
Odaily Planet Daily will summarize and briefly analyze the overall data of the prediction market for 2025 in this article for readers' reference.
### Overall Scale of the Prediction Market in 2025: $50 Billion Level, Kalshi and Polymarket Hold Over 97.5% Market Share
According to PredictionIndex.xyz's end-to-end index tracking of the prediction market ecosystem, covering markets, infrastructure, terminals, and new experimental projects, the final results are as follows:
- According to the platform's incomplete statistics, the total trading volume of the prediction market in 2025 was approximately $50.25 billion.
- Excluding Kalshi and Polymarket, the trading volume of the rest of the ecosystem was $1.25 billion.
- This long-tail market is key for testing and evolving new market designs, incentives, and concepts, involving projects such as azuroprotocol, TrendleFi, hyperstiti0ns, Limitless, MyriadMarkets, overtime, footballdotfun, xodotmarket, predictonfliq, DGbet_official, and BRKTgg.
If such data reveals the current "duopoly" pattern of the prediction market, then the data provided by KalshiData under the Kalshi platform offers a more detailed view of the popularity of the current hot sectors.
Kalshi 2025 Report Card: Trading Volume Reaches $23.8 Billion, Year-on-Year Growth Exceeds 11 Times
On January 3, KalshiData published a statement indicating that all indicators for Kalshi in 2025 achieved record growth.
In terms of nominal trading volume, the total for the year reached $23.8 billion, a year-on-year increase of 1108%, approximately 12.1 times.
- December set a monthly historical high of $6.38 billion;
- The fourth week of December set a weekly historical high of $1.7 billion;
- December 21 set a daily historical high of $381.7 million.
In terms of the number of trades, the total for the year reached 97 million, a year-on-year increase of 1680%, approximately 17.8 times.
- December saw 27.67 million trades;
- The fourth week of December had 7.6 million trades;
- December 21 had 1.5 million trades, all setting historical highs.
In terms of open interest, the total reached $225 million, a year-on-year increase of 169%, approximately 2.7 times.
- March 9 set a daily historical high of $533 million;
- The first week of March set a weekly historical high of $530 million;
- February set a monthly historical high of $499.5 million.
In terms of the number of contracts traded, the total for the year reached 23.8 billion, a year-on-year increase of 1108%, approximately 12.1 times.
- December set a monthly historical high of 6.38 billion contracts;
- The fourth week of December set a weekly historical high of 1.7 billion contracts;
- December 21 set a daily historical high of 382 million contracts.
According to KalshiData website data, since its launch on June 28, 2021, Kalshi's historical total trading volume has reached $27,255,757,183, with an average daily trading volume of $16,619,364 and a total number of trades reaching 27,242,274,566.
As for Polymarket, although it focuses on the concept of "on-chain prediction markets," its trading volume data for 2025 is somewhat ambiguous, possibly due to differences in statistical criteria and trading data channels.
Polymarket 2025 Report Card: Trading Volume Estimated at Around $22-25 Billion
According to DefiLlama data, Polymarket's total DEX trading volume for 2025 is approximately $10.5 billion.
According to Dune data panel information, Polymarket's total trading volume for 2025 is approximately $22.5 billion.
According to PredictionIndex.xyz website information, Polymarket's historical cumulative trading volume is $23.2 billion.
According to the “Prediction Market Report” issued by Keyrock in conjunction with Dune and other platforms, the total trading volume of the prediction market in 2025 is $44 billion, with Polymarket's trading volume around $21.5 billion (Note from Odaily Planet Daily: In contrast, Kalshi's trading volume is approximately $17.1 billion).
Considering the above information and the data provided by the Kalshi official platform stating that "Kalshi's annual trading volume is $23.8 billion," we estimate Polymarket's total trading volume for 2025 to be around $22 billion.
### Segmentation of the Prediction Market: Sports Ranks First, Political Events and Cryptocurrencies Follow in Second and Third Place
According to the relevant information from the “Prediction Market Report” issued by Keyrock in conjunction with Dune and other platforms, specifically regarding the betting events in the prediction market,
In 2025, Kalshi remains focused on sports, with sports accounting for about 85% of the nominal trading volume.
In contrast, Polymarket shows a more diversified mix—
Sports (39%), politics (34%), and cryptocurrencies (18%) together drive over 90% of the prediction market betting activity.
In addition, based on trading volume calculations,
- The trading volume related to economic prediction events grew by 905%, reaching $112 million;
- The trading volume related to technology and science prediction events grew by 1637%, reaching $123 million;
- The volume of open bets led by economics (growing 7 times to about $800 million market size) and social and cultural (growing 6 times to about $700 million market size) shows an increasing use of macro hedging and long-term vision positioning.
- Other categories (such as culture and society) also saw significant growth, with the overall contract opening trading volume increasing from about $3.3 billion at the beginning of 2025 to around $13 billion, significantly enhancing market depth and liquidity.
Prediction Markets Also Have "Off-Peak and Peak Seasons": The Second Half of the Year Becomes a Trading Volume Surge Period
It is worth noting that as of late August 2025, data shows that Polymarket's trading volume remained around $7.5 billion to $8 billion, but with the surge of various unexpected events, political events, and sports competitions in the second half of the year, both Polymarket and Kalshi welcomed a "trading explosion period":
In September, the combined trading volume of Kalshi and Polymarket reached $1.44 billion.
In October, the trading volume of the prediction market reached $8.7 billion, with Kalshi leading and Polymarket following;
In November, the combined trading volume of Kalshi and Polymarket approached $10 billion, with Kalshi's trading volume reaching $5.8 billion, a month-on-month increase of 32%; Polymarket's trading volume reached $3.74 billion, a month-on-month increase of 23.8%.
In December 2025, analyst Patrick Scott published a statement indicating that in November 2025, the trading volume of the prediction market exceeded $13 billion, which is more than three times the trading volume during the peak of the 2024 election. Polymarket, Kalshi, and OPINION accounted for the vast majority of the trading volume. Binary options are currently applied in areas such as political speeches, sports events, and corporate earnings reports, becoming a probabilistic layer for world events and news.
Considering Kalshi's trading volume of $6.38 billion in December, Polymarket's trading volume is likely to be similarly significant, and the overall trading volume of the prediction market in December 2025 may reach a scale of $13-15 billion.
### Top 5 Stars of the Prediction Market: Kalshi, Polymarket, and Others
Finally, we can refer to the existing statistical data on PredictionIndex.xyz as of the time of writing, where the Top 5 platforms by trading volume in the prediction market are as follows:
- Kalshi, with a historical trading volume of approximately $27.1 billion;
- Polymarket, with a historical trading volume of approximately $23.2 billion;
- Opinion, with a historical trading volume of approximately $13.1 billion (Note from Odaily Planet Daily: Considering the platform's launch time and mechanism, there may be issues with trading volume inflation; this data is based solely on statistical platform information);
- Limitless, with a historical trading volume of approximately $512 million;
- Azuro, with a historical trading volume of approximately $444 million.
Previously, the CEO of Kalshi claimed that the prediction market scale is around $150 billion. Although the final overall trading volume for 2025 was only one-third of what he mentioned, considering that the prediction market sector was not fully formed in 2024, his statement of a "market scale of $150 billion" is not mere talk. With a series of popular prediction events such as the 2026 U.S. midterm elections and the World Cup, the overall market scale of the prediction market may still maintain a tenfold growth in 2026.
Of course, as we previously mentioned in “Only One in Ten Prediction Markets Will Survive Until the End of the Year, and This Is Not Alarmist”, just because the sector is popular does not mean that all projects and platforms will thrive. For ordinary players like us, considering the limitations of liquidity depth and capital allocation, it may be a better choice to specialize in 1-3 mainstream platforms.
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