1. Starting from the Break of 90,000
The market made a noticeable V-shaped rebound yesterday.
As early as January 3rd, I clearly mentioned to everyone:
Once the 90,000 level forms an effective break, the next bullish target will be 94,000.
The reason is simple —
90,000 was the first resistance level at that time, and once broken, it means that the short positions accumulated below are likely to be liquidated in the short term.
To complete the liquidation of shorts, the price must make higher highs, meaning there is a possibility of breaking previous highs.
From 90,000 to 94,000, there is a 4,000-point upward space.
Even if you only capture half, there is still at least a 2,000-point space, which is the core logic of this market segment.
2. Two Expectations After Breaking 94,000
Yesterday, the price broke through the previous high as expected, and I updated and supplemented my views immediately.
At that time, I provided two expectations:
The first expectation:
The rebound continues, with the upper target pointing to 98,000-99,000,
After achieving the target, it will then undergo a larger cycle pullback on the daily and weekly levels.
The second expectation:
After breaking the previous high, it encounters resistance at the second resistance level,
First, it will undergo a pullback, then decide the subsequent direction.
Both scenarios are possible, but from a structural perspective,
I personally lean towards the second expectation.
According to the second expectation, if 94,000 forms a break and then pulls back,
The first target for the pullback is likely the previous first resistance level, which is 90,000.
This level will transform from "resistance" to "support."
If the support holds, a new round of rebound will unfold, with the upper target still being 98,000-99,000.
3. Why Not to Chase Long Positions Yesterday?
During the day yesterday, our overall thought was to look for a pullback,
But we also clearly stated: this rebound may not necessarily be over.
The key is —
Do not chase highs in the short term.
Those who built long positions on the left side of the bottom
Can choose to take partial profits, while keeping the remaining position defended with a trailing stop.
For those who chased short positions after the break of 90,000,
Around 94,000, it is recommended to treat it as a short-term position and take profits in a timely manner.
For friends who are flat,
It is not advisable to build new long positions near the previous high.
There is only one reason:
The risk-reward ratio is not favorable.
If you go long near 94,000,
The stop must be placed at least below 90,000 or even around 89,000,
While the target is 98,000-99,000,
In this structure, the risk and reward do not match.
4. What Not to Do is More Important Than What to Do
I often say:
When you are unsure of what to do now, you must first think clearly — what you cannot do now.
The most explicit conclusion yesterday was:
Stay flat, do not open new long positions at high levels.
If you adhered to this,
Then from 94,000 falling back to around 91,000,
This 3,000-point drop would have nothing to do with you.
Avoiding losses is itself part of making a profit.
5. Current Structure and Subsequent Thoughts
Returning to the current market structure:
The first resistance level has been broken.
94,000 has also completed the breakthrough.
The key support at 90,000 remains effective.
As long as a new short structure has not formed,
And the key support has not been broken,
The probability of this rebound continuing remains higher.
My main expectation remains:
After the adjustment ends, there is a high probability that the price will make another rebound,
Targeting 98,000-99,000,
And then enter a new downward phase.
6. Under What Conditions is the Rebound Considered Over?
Only when both conditions are met,
Will I consider this round of rebound likely to be over:
The market forms a new short structure
The support at 90,000 is effectively broken.
Before that,
As long as the price operates above 90,000,
We can still understand the current market
As an adjustment phase within the rebound process.
7. Summarizing the Current Thoughts
Do not chase highs.
Consider going long only at low points after confirming the structure.
Keep the stop unified below 90,000.
Maintain the rebound target at 98,000-99,000.
If the structure changes in the future,
I will update my views immediately.
Follow me, join the community, and let's improve together.
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