Qinglan Crypto Class is starting! BTC's four cycles + news perspective, guiding you to step in sync with the crypto market rhythm.

Multi-cycle Technical Analysis

Let's break down the four cycles; the current situation feels a bit like "twisting a flower."

Daily Chart (Long-term Trend - Strong Consolidation): Trend: After a big bullish candle broke above 90,000 on January 5, the price is still oscillating above 90,000, with an overall trend leaning towards strong consolidation. MA5 has crossed above MA10, and MACD is also above the zero line, which are good signs. *Key Levels: 92,000-90,000 is the core support area, where the previous breakout occurred, and it is also where MA10 and MA20 converge. The upper resistance is initially seen around the previous high of 94,789.

4-Hour Chart (Medium-term Trend - High-level Correction): Trend: After reaching 94,789, the price began to correct and is currently in a high-level consolidation pattern. MACD has formed a death cross above the zero line, indicating that the momentum of this upward move is weakening and needs time to digest. *Key Levels: 92,000 is the current focal point of the bulls and bears, and it is also the upper boundary of daily support. If it breaks below, the correction may deepen to 90,000. The upper resistance is in the 94,000-94,500 range.

1-Hour Chart (Short-term Trend - Bottom Testing and Rebound): Trend: This morning, there was a rapid decline, dropping from around 94,000 to about 91,500, followed by a rebound. The current price is oscillating in the 92,500-93,000 range, which is a recovery after an oversold condition. *Key Levels: Short-term support is at 92,500 (the rebound starting point from this morning), with strong support still at 92,000. The upper resistance is at 93,500 (near the 1-hour MA20) and 94,000.

15-Minute Chart (Ultra-short-term Rhythm - Weak Rebound): Trend: The rebound after the decline is relatively weak, with the price being suppressed below the short-term moving averages (MA5, MA10), indicating a weak consolidation. Although MACD has formed a golden cross at a low level, it is still below the zero line, suggesting only a minor pullback. *Key Levels: Immediate resistance is at 92,800-93,000; breaking above here would allow for higher targets. Minor support is around 92,300.

To summarize the technical analysis: The long-term bullish structure remains, but the medium to short-term needs to digest the gains. 92,000 is the key support level resonating across multiple cycles; if it holds, the trend remains intact; if it fails, it may test 90,000. The market is currently in a consolidation phase with "pressure above and support below."

News Perspective

In terms of news, there is a mix of bullish and bearish sentiments, but overall leaning towards positive: 1. Bullish: Morgan Stanley has applied for Bitcoin and Solana spot ETFs, marking a continued commitment from traditional financial giants, which is a significant long-term positive. BlackRock has been withdrawing large amounts from exchanges (nearly $700 million), indicating that institutions are accumulating rather than selling, reducing market selling pressure. MSCI has postponed the removal of MicroStrategy, alleviating market concerns about BTC-related stocks being "kicked out" of indices. 2. Bearish/Pressure: Bitcoin mining company MARA transferred over 500 BTC to exchanges, worth nearly $50 million, increasing potential selling pressure in the short term. Additionally, some highly leveraged whales have faced liquidation (with losses exceeding $7 million), indicating significant market volatility and clearing out weak bulls. 3. Sentiment: The Fear and Greed Index has risen to 42 (fear), significantly easing from previous extreme fear levels, but it hasn't reached greed yet, indicating that market sentiment is recovering but remains cautious.

Comprehensive Forecast and Trading Strategy

Overall, the technical analysis shows oscillation above the key support level of 92,000, while the news is primarily positive due to institutional long-term positioning. I believe that in the short term (1-3 days), the price will likely continue to oscillate between 92,000-94,000, digesting previous gains and miner selling pressure. In the medium term (1-2 weeks), the trend remains upward as long as the core support area of 92,000-90,000 holds; after consolidation, it is expected to challenge the previous high again.

Trading Strategy: _Aggressive (Short-term): You can try a small long position near 92,000-92,300, with a stop loss below 91,800, targeting 93,500 and 94,000. If it directly rebounds to 93,800-94,000 and faces resistance, you can try a small short position, with a stop loss above 94,500, targeting 92,800. _Conservative (Medium to Long-term): Be patient. If the price stabilizes after a pullback to the 90,000-91,000 area, it is a good opportunity to gradually build long positions. Alternatively, wait for the price to break above and stabilize at 94,500 before following up with long positions. *Key Reminder: Be sure to manage your position size and set stop losses. The current market is highly volatile, so avoid heavy positions chasing highs and lows.

For more quantitative breakdowns of how real-time news affects market sentiment, check out my Qinglan Crypto Class at qinglan.org. Finally, Qinglan sends everyone a trading quote: The market is always born in despair, rises in hesitation, and ends in celebration. Right now, we may be in the "hesitation" phase; maintaining patience is more important than blind impulsiveness.

免责声明：本文章仅代表作者个人观点，不代表本平台的立场和观点。本文章仅供信息分享，不构成对任何人的任何投资建议。用户与作者之间的任何争议，与本平台无关。如网页中刊载的文章或图片涉及侵权，请提供相关的权利证明和身份证明发送邮件到support@aicoin.com，本平台相关工作人员将会进行核查。