Did Maduro really hide 60 billion dollars in BTC?

Written by: Cathy, Plain Language Blockchain

In the early hours of January 3, 2026, U.S. special forces arrested Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro in Caracas during a military operation codenamed "Absolute Resolve."

This event raised a significant question in the crypto community: Does the Maduro regime really possess the rumored "shadow reserves"?

According to a report from the investigative agency Whale Hunting and various intelligence sources, an astonishing rumor has circulated in the market: the Maduro regime may hold between 600,000 to 660,000 bitcoins. If this rumor is true, based on market prices in early 2026, the total value could reach up to $60-67 billion.

What does this mean?

MicroStrategy (now rebranded as Strategy), a company known as a "Bitcoin whale," held over 670,000 BTC as of January 2026, valued at approximately $61.3 billion. If the rumors about Venezuela are true, its holdings would be comparable to the largest corporate buyer globally, accounting for about 3% of the total bitcoin supply (21 million coins).

But the question is: Does this wealth really exist? If it does, where is it hidden?

In the crypto world, there is a hard rule: "Not your keys, not your coins."

01 How Did the Rumor Arise?

To understand the origin of the "600,000 BTC" rumor, we need to first grasp the theoretical avenues through which the Maduro regime could accumulate bitcoins. It is important to emphasize that the following analysis is based on public reports and intelligence estimates, not confirmed facts.

Avenue One: The Petro Scam—Paving the Way for Crypto

In February 2018, under the heavy pressure of U.S. sanctions, Maduro announced the issuance of the world's first "national cryptocurrency"—the Petro. The government claimed to have raised $735 million on the first day, with a total financing goal of $6 billion.

However, multiple investigations revealed that this ICO had serious issues from the start.

The Petro initially claimed to be based on Ethereum, then stated it was on NEM, and ultimately seemed to operate on a non-existent private chain. The government asserted that the Petro was backed by 5.3 billion barrels of crude oil from the Ayacucho block, but on-site investigations showed that the infrastructure there was in ruins, with no extraction activities taking place.

The so-called "financing" was likely just a transfer of assets within the regime.

Despite the failure of the Petro, it left behind a key byproduct: Sunacrip (National Superintendency of Crypto Assets). This agency was granted the power to regulate all crypto activities, issue mining licenses, and even directly operate national mining pools. It is not a regulatory body but a state money laundering center.

In January 2024, Maduro officially shut down the Petro. This was not a failure but a strategic shift—from "issuer" to "holder," fully transitioning to real cryptocurrencies with global liquidity like bitcoin and USDT.

Avenue Two: The PDVSA-Crypto Scandal—$21 Billion Unaccounted For

Market rumors suggest that the core source of the Maduro regime's bitcoin reserves may come from the misappropriation of oil export revenues from the state-owned oil company PDVSA.

In 2019, the U.S. imposed comprehensive sanctions on PDVSA, cutting off its access to the global banking system. To survive, PDVSA launched an "anti-blockade" strategy:

Dark Fleet: Using tankers with turned-off transponders to transport crude oil to Asia's "teapot refineries" (small non-state-owned refineries).

Intermediary Network: Covering the source of crude oil through shell companies registered in the UAE, Russia, and other locations. These intermediaries often had no experience in oil trading; their only qualification was personal connections to regime insiders.

Crypto Settlement: Unable to receive dollar wire transfers, intermediaries were instructed to pay for oil in USDT (Tether).

In March 2023, Venezuela erupted in a shocking "PDVSA-Crypto" scandal. An internal government audit revealed that approximately $21 billion in oil export receivables were unaccounted for between 2020 and 2023.

Where did this money go? It remains a mystery.

Some intelligence analysts speculate that part of it may have flowed back into regime-controlled wallets through cryptocurrencies. It is said that Sunacrip established an automated "bridge" mechanism:

Reception: Intermediaries transfer USDT into an intermediate wallet controlled by Sunacrip
Laundering: Using mixers like Tornado Cash to obscure the fund's trail
Exchange: Converting USDT to bitcoin at OTC desks in Russia or Eastern Europe
Storage: Transferring bitcoin to cold wallets generated offline, with private keys held by the regime's top echelons

The core designers of this system are Tareck El Aissami (former oil minister) and Alex Saab (the regime's "financial diplomat"). After resigning in March 2023, El Aissami was arrested in April 2024 on corruption charges, facing multiple accusations including treason and money laundering. His assets are likely to be seized by the Maduro family.

Saab returned to Venezuela in December 2023 as part of a prisoner exchange with the U.S., trading 10 American prisoners for this financial architect, highlighting his irreplaceability in Maduro's eyes—this importance likely stems from his control over the financial lifeline.

Avenue Three: Military Mining—The "National Hashrate" from Seized Miners

In addition to oil revenues, another theory suggests that the Venezuelan regime may directly produce bitcoins by controlling "means of production."

Venezuela has the cheapest electricity in the world, primarily provided by the Guri Dam. This makes bitcoin mining highly profitable. The Maduro government monopolized this advantage through the military business sector—CAMIMPEG (Military Company of Mining, Oil, and Gas).

CAMIMPEG established the "Bolivarian Army Digital Asset Production Center," and these military mining sites enjoy privileges:

Power Assurance: In a country with frequent power outages, military mining sites have priority access to electricity
Security Assurance: Heavily guarded by the National Guard
Zero-Cost Operation: Since electricity is effectively free (state-subsidized), the marginal cost is nearly zero

But where did the equipment for these military mining sites come from? A significant portion was seized from private miners.

Starting in 2020, Sunacrip, in conjunction with the military, launched a series of raids on private mining sites:

2020: The National Guard seized 315 Antminer S9s in Bolívar State
2023: Raiding the headquarters of the gang "Aragua Train" in Tocoron prison, seizing a large number of mining machines and weapons
2024: In Maracay, over 2,300 Antminer S19J Pros were seized in one operation

Intelligence sources estimate that between 2020 and 2025, through the confiscation of private mining sites and gang facilities, the government may have acquired tens of thousands of mining machines. These devices were not destroyed but were redeployed to facilities controlled by CAMIMPEG.

Based on known thousands of high-performance mining machines, combined with the output from state-owned mining sites, this "zombie army" may have produced tens of thousands of bitcoins over the past few years.

02 The Data Sources and Doubts Behind the "600,000 BTC" Rumor

Key question: Is this number credible?

Based on intelligence reports from Chainalysis, TRM Labs, and the investigative agency "Whale Hunting," the estimated number circulating in the market is between 600,000 to 660,000 BTC. However, it must be emphasized:

This number comes solely from intelligence sources and is not hard data traceable on the blockchain.

There is no public on-chain evidence supporting this number.

The Whale Hunting report explicitly states: "This estimate comes from HUMINT (human intelligence) and has not been verified by blockchain analysis."

Nevertheless, the report still provides a hypothetical composition analysis:

Does this rumor logically hold up?

Supporters' viewpoints:

MicroStrategy Comparison: MicroStrategy (now rebranded as Strategy) held over 670,000 BTC as of January 2026. A sovereign nation theoretically has the capacity to reach a similar scale.

Funding Support: PDVSA had $21 billion unaccounted for between 2020-2023. If 50% of that were converted to bitcoin, based on average prices at the time, it could purchase 300,000 to 400,000 BTC.

Skeptics' viewpoints:

Lack of On-Chain Evidence: If 600,000 BTC truly existed, there should be traces on the blockchain, but no one has been able to point to a specific address.
The Number is Too Neat: The figure of 600,000 seems more like an estimate rather than an actual statistic, likely leading to significant overestimation.
Questionable Motives: This rumor may be used for political purposes or market speculation.

Conclusion: In the absence of concrete blockchain evidence, this remains an unverified rumor.

03 If the Rumor is True: Who Holds the Private Keys?

Assuming this "shadow reserve" truly exists, even if Maduro is arrested, it does not mean the U.S. can control it.

The primary challenge the FBI will face is: How to prove the existence of these bitcoins and find the private keys?

Who might hold the private keys?

If this asset truly exists, intelligence analysts speculate that it is unlikely to be managed by a single account; it is more likely to have employed a multisig (multisignature) or key sharding scheme.

Theoretical private key holders may include:

Alex Saab: As the regime's financial architect, Saab not only understands the full picture of fund flows but likely holds the key mnemonic phrases or the physical locations of hardware wallets needed to recover the wallets. He returned to Venezuela in December 2023 as part of a prisoner exchange with the U.S., where Maduro traded 10 American prisoners for this financial brain, highlighting his irreplaceability in the regime.
Nicolasito (Maduro's son): Maduro's son, named in the indictment. He is deeply involved in illegal gold mining and the regime's daily operations and may hold backups of the family's portion of the private keys.
Cilia Flores (First Lady): Known as the "First Combatant," she holds a very high position within the regime's core circle. She may have physical control over some cold wallets.
Technical Bureaucrats: Former technical personnel from Sunacrip may be responsible for maintaining the multisig technical architecture. While they may not know the complete private keys, their cooperation is crucial for reconstructing wallet access.

Speculative Crypto Architecture

The most likely architecture is an M-of-N signing scheme (e.g., 3/5 or 5/7). This means that signatures from 3 of 5 core individuals must be gathered to access the funds.

If Maduro, Flores, and Saab are all under U.S. control, theoretically, the U.S. could force them to cooperate to unlock the funds. But reality is far more complex:

Geographical Dispersal: The cold wallets may be stored in bunkers in Caracas, safes in Russia, or safe houses in Cuba.
Dead Man's Switch: It cannot be ruled out that the system has set up some kind of automatic trigger mechanism. If no specific action is taken for a long time (such as Maduro going missing), the funds may automatically transfer to an unrecoverable address or be sent to other allies.
Ideological Resistance: Even in the face of life imprisonment, key individuals holding the private keys may refuse to cooperate. For them, this is not just wealth but the last weapon against "American imperialism."

04 Market Impact: The Rumor Itself is Uncertainty

Even if this rumor is unverified, it has already become a "Sword of Damocles" hanging over the crypto market. 600,000 bitcoins account for 3% of the total BTC supply, and if they truly exist, they would have a massive impact.

Three Possible Scenarios

Scenario One: The Rumor is False

If a thorough investigation by the FBI and blockchain analysis firms ultimately proves that this "shadow reserve" does not exist or is severely overestimated, the market may breathe a sigh of relief. This would mean no potential selling pressure, which would be neutral to slightly positive for prices.

Scenario Two: The Rumor is True and Controlled by the FBI

If this asset truly exists and the U.S. successfully seizes it, as per usual practice, these bitcoins would enter a judicial freeze process, potentially remaining illiquid for years. This effectively locks up a significant supply, reducing the market float and positively impacting prices.

This is similar to the FBI's seizure of Silk Road bitcoins in 2013. At that time, about 170,000 BTC were frozen and eventually auctioned off in batches. However, during the freeze, these coins effectively exited circulation, objectively reducing market selling pressure.

Scenario Three: The Rumor is True but the Private Keys are Uncontrolled

This is the most dangerous scenario. If this asset truly exists but the private keys are not controlled by the U.S., remnants of the fleeing regime may attempt to sell bitcoins on the OTC market for escape funds, triggering panic selling.

When the German government sold just 50,000 BTC in 2024, it caused significant short-term market volatility. A sell-off pressure of 600,000 would be catastrophic.

05 Conclusion

Maduro's arrest has indeed unveiled a corner of how the Venezuelan regime uses cryptocurrencies to evade sanctions.

From the failed Petro experiment to the $21 billion PDVSA-Crypto scandal, and to militarized mining facilities, these are all confirmed facts. However, the rumor of a "600,000 BTC shadow reserve" still lacks concrete evidence.

What we can confirm is that Venezuela is indeed using cryptocurrencies to evade sanctions, PDVSA has $21 billion unaccounted for, and the regime has seized a large number of mining machines.

But we cannot confirm the rumors, including whether 600,000 BTC has truly been accumulated, who holds the private keys (if they exist), and whether these bitcoins will enter the market.

This indeed raises a sharp question: How do we find a balance between freedom and order when decentralized technology is used to evade sanctions?

But until more evidence surfaces, the "60 billion dollar shadow reserve" remains an unverified rumor.

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