Looking back at the last cycle that truly changed the structure of productivity—

👉 The Nasdaq from 1996 to 2003 (blue line) rose a full 100% in the last 6 months before the bubble peaked.

Note that this is not the starting point of the bubble, but rather the stage where the bubble completed its self-justification.

And now the Nasdaq index (white line) is following an extremely familiar path.

In terms of trends, it has already entered the overlapping range of 1998–2000;

In terms of narrative, it is also built on a real productivity revolution;

In terms of sentiment, the divisions are disappearing—there are fewer skeptics, and more are moving towards a default acceptance of correctness.

So, are we standing in 1998 or 2000?

If it is 1998, that means there is still a period of the most exhilarating, most irresistible, and also the most risk-discipline-destroying market ahead.

If it is 2000, then it is the last lesson the bubble has to teach the market.

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