On July 5, in the East 8 Time Zone, addresses related to Mt. Gox began transferring large amounts of BTC to exchanges such as Bitstamp, following multiple internal address movements in the previous week. With the official confirmation of the repayment plan starting in July, the decade-long "upward selling pressure ghost" has materialized for the first time as significant on-chain movements, prompting the market to reprice short-term price impacts and medium to long-term structural opportunities.
Funding and On-Chain Movements Amplify Selling Pressure Expectations
● Massive Chip Activation: On July 5, multiple transactions of approximately 2000 BTC flowed out from Mt. Gox-related addresses, first entering intermediary addresses, with some then directed to exchanges like Bitstamp; on-chain monitoring institutions reported that since July, the identifiable movement scale related to Mt. Gox has reached the level of tens of thousands of BTC. Combined with previous custody disclosures, Mt. Gox is expected to allocate about 141,000 BTC and 142,000 BCH to creditors, with the BTC portion being the most sensitive focus of the current market.
● Exchange Inflows Rise: Data from CryptoQuant and Glassnode indicate that since early July, there have been signs of periodic amplification in BTC net inflows at major spot exchanges, particularly concentrated around the 24-hour window before and after the large transfers from Mt. Gox, suggesting that some existing chips are choosing to preemptively exit potential selling pressure. On certain days, the single-day net inflow surged from nearly flat to the level of tens of thousands of BTC, with short-term price fluctuations also amplifying.
● Miners and Old Coins Resonance: Around July, daily outflows from miner wallets to exchanges also increased, with some days seeing miner net outflows approaching annual high ranges. At the same time, the on-chain "BTC awakening indicator for coins dormant for over a year" showed a significant jump, indicating that besides Mt. Gox, early chips are also utilizing the market narrative of "clearing historical burdens" to choose to realize profits or take profits in batches.
● Derivatives Hedging Intensification: In the perpetual and options markets, the Put/Call ratio for options primarily expiring in September has risen, and the open interest (OI) at major exchanges for BTC has not only not significantly reduced during price declines but has actually increased near key price levels, indicating that some institutions are choosing to hedge against the uncertainty and selling pressure related to Mt. Gox by buying put options or short positions.
Supply Shock Amidst Cyclical Misalignment
The substantial flow of Mt. Gox chips occurs during a phase of misalignment between macro and crypto cycles: on one hand, while U.S. inflation data has marginally eased, the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut expectations continue to be debated in terms of "how many/when to start," and global liquidity has yet to enter a clear easing channel; on the other hand, after experiencing spot ETF expansion, halving, and a macro narrative of "safe-haven assets" in the first half of the year, BTC's price has risen several times from low levels, with the proportion of long-term profit chips historically high. Against this backdrop, pushing Mt. Gox chips, which had a cost below $400 a decade ago, into the market is bound to be interpreted as a structural supply shock rather than merely a technical "news landing." However, from an on-chain perspective, this is also an extremely rare "ultra-old chip clearing experiment": a portion of long-dormant UTXOs is being forced to awaken, re-enter circulation, or disperse to a wider range of wallet addresses, which may not only break the market's psychological anchor of "infinite upward selling pressure" in the short term but also accelerate the redistribution of BTC holding structures from highly concentrated old addresses to more institutions, ETFs, and decentralized holders.
Selling Pressure and Absorption: A Tug of War Between Pessimism and Optimism
Market sentiment surrounding the chips released by Mt. Gox shows strong polarization. On one side, pessimists emphasize that creditors have an extremely low average holding cost, and even selling near current prices would yield "career-level returns." Additionally, some creditors have long faced asset freezes and legal disputes, making them more inclined to view this repayment as a "liquidation-style exit," potentially forming a potential sell wall of hundreds of thousands of BTC in the medium to short term; from their perspective, combined with miners facing profit pressures post-halving, macro interest rates remaining high, and slowing ETF fund inflows, this round of selling pressure could become a catalyst for BTC to enter a new intermediate adjustment from high levels. On the other side, optimists believe that the actual effective circulation scale of Mt. Gox chips will be significantly lower than the theoretical maximum due to the diversified choices of creditors: some may continue to hold long-term, while others may be absorbed by institutions through OTC or structured products. The current reality of the U.S. stock market index being at historical highs and the assets under management (AUM) of U.S. spot BTC ETFs reaching tens of billions of dollars also means that there is deeper secondary market liquidity to absorb this supply. More critically, the shadow of "Mt. Gox selling pressure" has been an uncertain variable in BTC's pricing structure for the past decade; once this batch of chips undergoes a relatively concentrated time window of movement and digestion, the market may welcome a psychological turning point of "worst expectations being fulfilled," allowing long-term funds to refocus valuation on adoption rates, macro monetary environments, and on-chain demand growth itself.
Repricing of Key Variables and Time Windows
In the coming weeks to months, the actual selling path of Mt. Gox-related chips will intertwine with several key time nodes, determining the volatility range and rhythm of BTC. In the short term, the specific choices of creditors to redeem BTC, cash, or a mixed plan will directly impact the new selling pressure at exchanges; if the redemption demand concentrates on a few exchanges and appears intensively within a short time, market volatility is likely to be forced to rise, with local prices potentially experiencing "liquidity gap" flash crashes and rapid rebounds. In the mid-term, whether the Federal Reserve confirms its first interest rate cut within the year, whether U.S. spot ETFs continue to see net inflows, and whether miners can navigate profit squeezes post-halving through mergers and cost optimization will determine whether BTC can restart a trending market after digesting Mt. Gox supply. In the long term, once the chips from Mt. Gox and other historical large-scale events gradually complete market-oriented clearing, assets like BTC will no longer face "unresolved historical supply bombs," but rather more predictable cyclical halvings, institutional allocation rhythms, and macro liquidity fluctuations—this also means that the current supply shock triggered by Mt. Gox is both a stress test of patience for the bull market and a preview of the next phase of a "no historical burden cycle."
Join our community to discuss and grow stronger together!
Official Telegram community: https://t.me/aicoincn
AiCoin Chinese Twitter: https://x.com/AiCoinzh
OKX Benefits Group: https://aicoin.com/link/chat?cid=l61eM4owQ
Binance Benefits Group: https://aicoin.com/link/chat?cid=ynr7d1P6Z
免责声明：本文章仅代表作者个人观点，不代表本平台的立场和观点。本文章仅供信息分享，不构成对任何人的任何投资建议。用户与作者之间的任何争议，与本平台无关。如网页中刊载的文章或图片涉及侵权，请提供相关的权利证明和身份证明发送邮件到support@aicoin.com，本平台相关工作人员将会进行核查。
