On January 3rd, Eastern Standard Time, data from the last trading week before the US stock market closed was released. Following a near standstill the previous week, the US spot Bitcoin ETF recorded a net inflow of approximately $200 million again, with several mainstream products waking up from a holiday state of "zero transactions, zero subscriptions/redemptions." The warming of funds contrasts sharply with the sideways movement of Bitcoin prices: while the total holdings of spot ETFs approached peak levels again, and some products increased their holdings by thousands of BTC in a single week, the spot price still fluctuated within the $42,000 to $44,000 range. ETF shares were clearly "held tightly," but the primary market did not see the expected surge in buying; instead, futures premiums fell back, and implied volatility in options continued to compress, indicating that off-exchange sentiment was not aggressive. This misalignment of "funds returning but prices not rising" has sparked a new round of discussions in the market regarding the influence of ETFs, miner selling pressure, and the relationship with macro liquidity.

ETF Subscriptions and Redemptions Active but Bitcoin Prices Sideways

● Net Inflows Restart: Data shows that after the Christmas and New Year holidays, the US spot Bitcoin ETF resumed subscriptions and redemptions, achieving a total of approximately $200 million in net inflows in a single week, ending a previous state of nearly zero net inflows. Among them, leading products continued to record positive subscriptions, while some smaller ETFs shifted from net redemptions to slight net inflows.

● Holdings Approaching Historical Highs: The Bitcoin holdings of several mainstream ETFs have once again approached previous highs, with the total number of BTC held by the ETF industry rising to a high range, indicating that institutions and qualified investors have not significantly reduced their positions but rather chose to "hold and observe" during the holiday period.

● Price Response Weak: In contrast to the return of funds, the spot price of Bitcoin still hovers with narrow fluctuations above $40,000, lacking the momentum for a breakout. The pull effect of net inflows on the market has significantly dulled compared to the "violent one-sided" movement seen when it first launched.

● Change in Incremental Fund Structure: Current inflows are more from allocation and rebalancing funds rather than the emotional chasing funds seen at the beginning of the year. This type of funding has a slower pace and lower price sensitivity, which also weakens the direct transmission chain of "the more you buy, the more it rises" for ETFs.

ETF and Derivative Signals Resonating

● Spread Structure Tending Neutral: As ETF net subscriptions resumed, the annualized premium of Bitcoin futures on CME and major exchanges has significantly fallen from previous highs, with some term contracts returning to a neutral to slightly positive range, indicating an increase in hedging and spread trading, while pure bullish trend funds have relatively cooled.

● Implied Volatility of Options Continues to Compress: The implied volatility of Bitcoin short- to mid-term options continued to decline after the holidays, with overall volatility pricing at low levels seen in recent months. Although bullish option positions remain biased, the market is willing to pay less for the right to "dramatically rise," contrasting the return of ETF funds with the structural characteristics of "low volatility and sideways movement."

● On-chain and Off-chain Price Spreads Narrowing: The premium/discount between off-chain bulk quotes and the spot market has narrowed, indicating smoother liquidity connections among institutions, with the impact of large subscriptions and redemptions on the market becoming smaller, making it easier for ETF-related funds to be absorbed by the existing liquidity pool.

● Capital Diversion Effect Emerging: Some small and medium investors are gradually shifting their positions from high-leverage derivatives to ETFs or compliant custody products, reflected in a slowdown or slight decline in contract open interest, while ETF shares steadily increase. The "de-leveraging" of capital combinations has, to some extent, suppressed the short-term elasticity of prices.

Misalignment of Macro Liquidity and Halving Expectations

This round of ETF fund return occurs at a delicate macro timing. At the beginning of January, Eastern Standard Time, US Treasury yields rebounded after a previous sharp decline, and the market's pricing of the easing pace for the year has tightened, with the global risk-free interest rate center not continuing to decline in the short term. Against this backdrop, incremental funds are more cautious in allocating to high-volatility assets, even though ETFs provide a legitimate and convenient exposure entry, funds are more inclined to "test in batches" rather than flooding in as they did at the initial launch. On the other hand, the "supply contraction story" brought by the approaching Bitcoin halving is still widely discussed in the market, but historically, the most intense price increases often occur after the halving, rather than in the months leading up to it. The current net inflow of ETFs is largely seen as an early layout for the market structure after the upcoming halving, rather than a short-term gamble on current prices. This misalignment in time dimensions makes funds more willing to accept sideways movement or even pullbacks, as long as the long-term upward expectations are not broken. Meanwhile, on the miner side, when the price is above $40,000, there remains a real demand for cost hedging and profit locking, with the tug-of-war between selling pressure and new ETF buying making the price appear to be slowly repricing within a new equilibrium range of "miners + institutions," rather than a one-sided trend.

Emotional Divergence and Left-side Right-side Game

Regarding the current situation of "ETF inflow but prices not rising," market opinions are clearly divided. Some bullish investors believe that the continuous net subscriptions of ETFs combined with the imminent halving indicate that long-term funds are quietly completing a chip exchange, and the temporary price stagnation seems more like a buildup for subsequent one-sided trends, advocating for consistent investment and low-leverage left-side layouts during the sideways period. Another more cautious group emphasizes that the marginal impact of ETFs is weakening, compliant funds are more focused on macro rates and regulatory environments, and before seeing a clearer liquidity shift, prices are likely to experience wide fluctuations at high levels or even a new round of deep pullbacks; they prefer to hedge through options and reduce overall exposure to "re-enter on the right side." There are also voices suggesting that compared to the emotional peak at the beginning of the year, the current market resembles a "transitional period for institutions": ETFs consolidate the originally fragmented retail demand under a few issuers, alleviating short-term supply tightness and elongating the overall market rhythm. Therefore, the debate over "how much more can ETFs push prices up" essentially reflects the divergence on whether Bitcoin's pricing power has partially shifted from high-frequency speculators to medium- to long-term allocators.

Key Time Window and Potential Triggers

Looking ahead, the key observation points for the short-term market focus on several aspects. First is the sustained net inflow capability of US spot Bitcoin ETFs in the coming weeks: if daily subscription and redemption data can stabilize in a positive range and scale moderately expands, it will strengthen market expectations that "institutional accumulation is not finished"; conversely, if there are again several days of near-zero net inflows or even overall net redemptions, it would indicate that allocation demand may have peaked, significantly increasing downward pressure on prices. Secondly, on the macro level, the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions, inflation data, and US Treasury yield trends will continue to dominate global risk appetite; any unexpected tightening or easing signals could become catalysts for breaking the current sideways structure. Finally, as the halving time window approaches, miner behavior, on-chain activity, and off-chain transaction premiums will become important clues to verify the extent to which the "halving story" is priced in by funds. Overall, as long as ETFs do not experience systemic net redemptions and macro liquidity does not undergo a severe reversal, the probability of Bitcoin building a central point above $40,000 remains high, and the real directional choice may have to wait for the next time point when macro and industry cycles resonate simultaneously.

Join our community to discuss and grow stronger together!
Official Telegram community: https://t.me/aicoincn
AiCoin Chinese Twitter: https://x.com/AiCoinzh

OKX Benefits Group: https://aicoin.com/link/chat?cid=l61eM4owQ
Binance Benefits Group: https://aicoin.com/link/chat?cid=ynr7d1P6Z

免责声明：本文章仅代表作者个人观点，不代表本平台的立场和观点。本文章仅供信息分享，不构成对任何人的任何投资建议。用户与作者之间的任何争议，与本平台无关。如网页中刊载的文章或图片涉及侵权，请提供相关的权利证明和身份证明发送邮件到support@aicoin.com，本平台相关工作人员将会进行核查。