On January 5th, Eastern Standard Time, Bitcoin once approached the $45,000 mark during trading. In the U.S. stock market, technology stocks that are highly correlated with cryptocurrencies surged in volume, leading to a strong overall performance in the sector and sparking discussions about the "repricing of crypto Beta." This round of cross-market resonance, combined with expectations for spot ETF approvals and macro interest rate path dynamics, has allowed funds to quickly switch between crypto assets and related tech stocks, significantly boosting short-term sentiment. The underlying changes in fund structure and risk appetite are reshaping the logical boundaries of this market cycle.

Market Profile of Crypto Assets and Tech Stocks Rising Together

● Price Performance: Bitcoin continued to rise in the first week of January, repeatedly challenging the $45,000 mark, with significant intraday volatility. Ethereum followed suit, and mainstream coins maintained a generally bullish structure.
● Related Stocks: In the U.S. stock market, crypto-related stocks showed a clear correlation with large tech stocks, with Coinbase, MicroStrategy, and several mining companies significantly outperforming the market, showing increased trading volume and exhibiting "pro-cyclical high Beta" characteristics.
● Fund Attention: On-chain activity and exchange trading volumes have rebounded in sync, with increased positions in the futures market. The market's focus on multiple narratives, including spot ETFs, halving cycles, and tech stock earnings expectations, has also risen.
● Sentiment Indicators: The Fear and Greed Index remains in the greedy range, and implied volatility for options has increased compared to previous periods, reflecting a rapid accumulation of directional bets on short-term market movements.

Synchronization of ETF Expectations and Derivative Pricing Changes

● ETF Approval Dynamics: Several institutions' applications for Bitcoin spot ETFs are approaching a critical time window, with the market generally expecting regulatory feedback to be imminent. Trading around "approval or not, and the pace of approval" has been rapidly amplified in the futures and options markets.
● Fund Flows: Research Brief shows that Bitcoin-related ETFs have recently maintained net inflows overall. Although precise dollar amounts are lacking, the direction has shifted from previous hesitation to a relatively positive and steady layout.
● Futures Structure: The annualized positive spread of Bitcoin futures has widened again, with the term structure showing a "bullish premium" state, indicating that both hedging funds and directional bulls are increasing their willingness to use leverage.
● Options Pricing: There has been a noticeable increase in call option buying, with short-term implied volatility rising more than that of long-term contracts. "Upside tail risk" is being repriced, reflecting that the market is preparing for potential ETF outcomes with directional insurance and speculation.
● Tech Stock Correlation: Some tech companies holding large amounts of Bitcoin or whose businesses are highly tied to crypto assets have stock price movements that are highly synchronized with Bitcoin's short-term elasticity. The market views them as amplifiers of "ETF expectations + crypto Beta."

Resonance of Crypto and Tech Assets Under Macro Narratives

The simultaneous strength of Bitcoin and tech stocks in this round is not an isolated event but rather a confluence of macro interest rate expectations, tech earnings cycles, and the crypto supply cycle itself. As U.S. inflation data retreats from its highs, market expectations for the Federal Reserve to initiate interest rate cuts this year continue to heat up. The downward shift in the forward path of risk-free rates makes growth tech stocks, which are more sensitive to future cash flows, and crypto assets, which heavily rely on liquidity, the first beneficiaries of a recovery in risk appetite. Meanwhile, with the Bitcoin halving time window approaching, the game between miners' marginal costs and coin prices is being repeatedly amplified, combined with the imagination of "structural incremental buying" brought by potential spot ETFs, forming a "crypto endogenous cycle" that runs parallel to traditional macro cycles. Within this framework, tech stocks, especially those holding large amounts of Bitcoin on their balance sheets or directly anchored to on-chain activities, are priced not merely as a function of earnings and valuations but also incorporate forward expectations of the crypto cycle, becoming the intersection of two resonating cycles.

Tug-of-War Around "Crypto Beta Pricing"

As Bitcoin and tech stocks resonate upward, market divergences have rapidly amplified. On one hand, bulls believe that under the combination of potential ETF approvals and halving, Bitcoin is in the first half of a new mid-term cycle, and the current price level is more of a "preheating." The true passive funds and long-term allocation forces have not fully entered the market, and related tech stocks, as high Beta vehicles, have room for further upward expansion. On the other hand, cautious funds emphasize that the current rise has accumulated considerable gains in a short time, and uncertainties still exist regarding ETFs and regulatory expectations. If the results deviate from market optimism, high-leverage derivatives and emotional funds may trigger significant pullbacks, with the volatility of crypto-related tech stocks potentially exceeding that of the underlying assets themselves. Both bulls and bears have formed a complex structure of hedging and arbitrage between spot, futures, and tech stocks: bulls amplify their upward exposure by holding Bitcoin spot, buying related stocks, and call options; bears aim to lock in profits amid amplified volatility by shorting concept stocks, positioning protective put options, and shortening duration positions. In the short term, strategies of "bottom-fishing crypto assets and related tech stocks on the left side" and "reducing positions at highs and shifting to more stable assets on the right side" are fiercely clashing in the market, further intensifying intraday volatility and emotional fluctuations.

Forward-Looking Key Prices and Regulatory Nodes

In the coming period, market focus will center on several key dimensions: First, whether Bitcoin can stabilize and effectively hold above $45,000 will directly impact the risk appetite and endurance of derivative leverage; if bulls continue to face resistance at this level, concentrated profit-taking and high-leverage positions may lead to a "technical cooling." Second, the timeline for regulation and ETF approvals remains a core variable determining market rhythm. If unexpectedly positive results emerge, funds may further flow into Bitcoin itself and its highly elastic tech stock vehicles; conversely, if the process is delayed or conditions tighten, the market may shift from trading "expectation differences" to reassessing "fundamentals and liquidity," putting pressure on high-valuation assets. Finally, macro-level inflation data and Federal Reserve policy communication will set the tone for interest rates and liquidity in this round of "crypto + tech" resonance: if rate cut expectations are solidified, the valuation center for growth assets and high Beta targets is likely to rise; if the interest rate path is revised upward, the current recovery in risk appetite may be forced to interrupt. Overall, as prices have already reflected some optimistic expectations in advance, the market in the near future is more likely to experience high-frequency fluctuations around key events and price ranges, with funds continuously shifting between crypto assets and related tech stocks, continuing to dynamically reprice "crypto Beta."

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