Written by: Blockchain Knight
If 2024 is the year when cryptocurrency returns to mainstream visibility through ETF advertising, then 2025 will be the year the market adapts to this attention.
Among them, eight core chart data points can clearly connect the relationship between capital flow, on-chain behavior, and price, becoming key to interpreting price trends.
The daily net inflow chart of ETFs records the creation and redemption in the primary market, reflecting the real cash demand for crypto exposure. Its green (net inflow) bars indicate a steady price increase, absorbing declines, while the red (net outflow) areas suggest short positions, revealing the true liquidity center.
The profit and loss chart for long and short-term holders quantifies market sentiment, clearly distinguishing the positions of stable long-term holders from vulnerable short-term holders, witnessing the disparity in wealth distribution and the signs of constructive reset in 2025.
The short-term holding cost basis chart compares the average cost of short-term holders with the spot price, marking the periods when the breakeven point is breached. The trend of repeatedly breaking costs and then recovering in 2025 makes pressure breaks a good buying opportunity.
The actual price chart of Bitcoin focuses on the global on-chain cost basis, and its gap with the spot price reflects market conditions better than sentiment indicators.
The MVRV ratio indicates the cycle position, with a slow rise in 2025 accompanied by orderly corrections, helping investors avoid the risk of chasing highs.
The adjusted spent output profit ratio (aSOPR) presents real-time market behavior, with a resilient pattern of "quick rebound after dropping below 1," becoming a more reliable signal than oscillation indicators.
The Ethereum fee chart covers total fees for L1 and major L2, confirming the L2 economy's transition from concept to reality, with business activities migrating to L2 highlighting user recognition of cost-effectiveness.
The XRP Ledger transfer chart focuses on payment throughput, showcasing the real value flow detached from speculative cycles, proving that payment networks can still expand steadily without the support of a bull market.
In summary, these charts outline a concise narrative: when ETF inflows rise, aSOPR resets during corrections, completing the transfer of chips to stable investors; when inflows slow and MVRV heats up, the market enters a stable adjustment period, with actual prices providing support for declines.
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