At the end of 2025 and the beginning of 2026, key opinion leaders in the cryptocurrency field began to speak out one after another. Their views rarely converged and collided, together outlining a clear picture of a turning point in the industry: an old era dominated by retail sentiment and fixed halving cycles is coming to an end, while a new order built on institutional capital, compliance frameworks, and real utility is slowly and surely emerging.
1. The End of the Old Cycle and the New Narrative of "Institutionalization"
The most striking consensus is the collective abandonment of the "four-year cycle theory" that has persisted for many years.
1. The End of the Cycle Theory
● ARK Invest CEO Cathie Wood clearly stated that "the four-year cycle of Bitcoin is over."
Her core logic is that the widespread adoption of institutional tools such as Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) and corporate balance sheets is transforming Bitcoin from a highly volatile speculative asset into a "risk asset." Historical deep pullbacks of 75%-90% will be replaced by more moderate adjustments.
● This view is supported by well-known trader Ansem and others. Galaxy's research director Alex Thorn also pointed out that Bitcoin's actual volatility has dropped to historical lows, and its pricing model is shifting towards that of mature assets like gold.
2. Firm Voting by Capital
● Actions speak louder than words. MicroStrategy Executive Chairman Michael Saylor is the most steadfast practitioner of the "Bitcoin as a corporate reserve asset" strategy. At the beginning of January 2026, he hinted on social media that he would continue to increase his Bitcoin holdings and predicted that, driven by institutions, Bitcoin's price could reach $170,000 in 2026.
● As of early 2026, the company’s holdings have exceeded 670,000 Bitcoins. This is not an isolated case, but a silent and firm capital migration involving corporate treasuries, asset management companies, and sovereign funds. It fundamentally changes the structure of Bitcoin holders, stabilizing its supply and significantly reducing selling pressure.
2. From Narrative-Driven to Value-Supported
The fading of the old paradigm means that the new order must be built on a more solid foundation. KOLs have outlined three core pillars.
1. Regulation and Compliance: From Obstacles to Cornerstones
DeFiTeddy, founder of XHunt & Biteye, listed "the shift to a friendly U.S. crypto regulatory environment" as the top certainty opportunity for 2026. This does not anticipate the disappearance of regulation but foresees a market environment with clear rules and defined access, such as the institutional benefits that the CLARITY Act may bring. Similarly, investor 0xJeff pointed out that "security tokens" will rise. This indicates that token issuance will move from the gray area to transparency, connecting with the compliance system of traditional finance (TradFi) and attracting large traditional capital that was previously hesitant.
2. On-Chain Finance: Penetration and Reconstruction
The second pillar is the on-chainization of finance. DeFiTeddy mentioned that "on-chain finance is accelerating its penetration into traditional finance." This is not only the application of stablecoins in payment but also the tokenization of complex financial assets such as bonds, private equity, and fund shares. Colin Wu, editor-in-chief of Wu Blockchain, sees "stock tokenization" as a key part of this trend. It will break geographical and temporal limitations, achieving global 24-hour liquidity and reshaping the efficiency and structure of financial markets.
3. Paradigm Revolution in Token Economics
DeFi veteran Chen Mo sharply pointed out that the industry has entered the era of "token interest binding." Token models that have narratives but lack actual value capture will be eliminated. Future successful projects must deeply bind their tokens with real income generated by the protocol and network growth effects. This forces project teams to shift from a "token issuance financing" mindset to a "building sustainable economic systems" mindset, which is a necessary growing pain for the industry to mature.
3. The Competition for Utility
In the new order, where will funds and attention flow? KOLs have pointed out several highly overlapping tracks.
1. Prediction Markets: Waiting for the "World Cup Moment"
● Prediction markets have become the biggest hotspot. Colin Wu and 0xJeff both listed it as an annual focus. Crypto KOL Monkey pointed out that the 2026 World Cup could be the ignition point, with platforms like Polymarket poised for a critical explosion.
This global sporting event will serve as a "stress test" to validate its traffic capacity, compliance ability, and market depth. Success or failure will test the ability of blockchain technology to meet real-world demands.
2. The Fusion of AI and Blockchain: The Future of Autonomous Agents
Another repeatedly mentioned track is AI + blockchain. DeFiTeddy predicts that the combination of AI Agents (autonomous intelligent agents) and blockchain will be a certain opportunity.
This means that future on-chain traders, liquidity providers, and even project governors may no longer be human but rather AI-driven autonomous programs with crypto wallets. This will greatly enhance market complexity and efficiency, creating new infrastructure and service demands.
3. Privacy and Specific Assets: Opportunities in Niche Areas
Raoul Pal, founder of Real Vision, made a specific and bold prediction: he believes that the privacy coin Zcash may be "the last token to increase 100 times." This is based on the anticipation that, in the context of tightening regulation, the market's demand for financial privacy will once again become prominent.
Additionally, the ecological development of mainstream public chains like Solana and Ethereum, especially in areas that integrate the real economy such as RWA (real-world assets) and DePIN, is also seen as a continuous opportunity by professionals like Paul Veradittakit from Pantera Capital.
4. Divergence, Risks, and Market Sentiment Shifts
Amidst the outlook for the new order, cautious and divergent voices are equally loud, which constitutes another side of a healthy market.
1. High Uncertainty
Despite long-term optimism, leaders have significant disagreements about the short-term path for 2026. Alex Thorn pointed out that the Bitcoin options market shows an extreme polar distribution of price expectations for mid-2026 (either $70,000 or $130,000), reflecting the huge uncertainty in the market at the new equilibrium point. This uncertainty means the market may experience violent fluctuations and a search for direction.
2. Potential Black Swans and Deep Correction Warnings
DeFiTeddy systematically listed seven potential black swan events. At the same time, openly bullish analysts like Tom Lee from Fundstrat have also warned in internal reports that the market may experience deep corrections. These warnings remind investors that storms in the macro world, regulatory reversals, or structural risks within the industry can still easily sweep through the crypto market.
3. Maturation of Investment Mindset
Investor 0xJeff observed that the market is "returning to fundamentals" and "reassessing the value of storytelling." This means that the effectiveness of community hype and vague visions is diminishing. Instead, there is a detailed examination of project financial data, revenue models, team execution capabilities, and product-market fit. The professional threshold of the entire industry is rapidly rising, with retail sentiment being replaced by professional analysis-driven approaches.
5. Conclusion: Moving Forward Between Consensus and Divergence
Looking at the mainstream KOLs' outlook for 2026, a clear blueprint for industry transformation has emerged:
● Change in Market Structure: From cyclical pulses to structural slow bull, volatility narrows, and institutions become the core of pricing.
● Change in Driving Logic: From macro liquidity narrative driven to micro project utility and compliance progress driven.
● Change in Investment Paradigm: From trend speculation to value discovery, with unprecedented emphasis on fundamentals and risk management.
Divergences also exist: regarding the depth and timing of corrections, and which niche track will explode first. But these divergences are technical debates built on the larger consensus that "the new order has arrived." As several KOLs summarized, the bubble is being squeezed out, and whether a project is sustainable and truly creates value has become the new standard for judgment.
For market participants, 2026 may be a watershed year. It will reward builders and investors who delve deep into research, embrace compliance, and focus on long-term value, while gradually eliminating players still immersed in old cycle narratives and short-term speculation. The cycle may be dead, but a more resilient, complex, and promising new era of cryptocurrency is slowly unfolding on the foundation of order.
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