🚨 Venezuela's $60 billion Bitcoin shadow reserve has been released? Is the U.S. going to confiscate it? Will there be a massive market crash?

This is the first reaction of many people upon seeing this news.

After some research, there is currently no official confirmation regarding the existence of this batch of Bitcoin. However, since 2018, Venezuela has been almost completely excluded from the U.S. dollar settlement system. They can sell oil but cannot receive dollars, so the credibility of turning to U+BTC is relatively high.

We can return to a more practical analytical framework:

👉 If it really exists, are there conditions for a market crash?

We can deduce this from three points: who can sell, is there an incentive to sell, and can it be sold quickly.

1⃣ First, let's look at the first point: who can sell?

If this batch of Bitcoin really exists, it is either controlled by the multi-layer control system of the Venezuelan regime or has partially entered gray or cold wallet structures.

In either case, they are not assets that can be readily allocated from exchange accounts, nor are they like Germany's, which are directly and clearly controlled by a single judicial entity for sale.

Even if the U.S. intervenes, the realistic path is more likely to be legal freezes, judicial disputes, and long-term games, rather than immediately obtaining executable selling rights.

2⃣ The second point: is there an incentive to sell?

From Venezuela's perspective, the existence of this batch of Bitcoin is primarily to avoid freezing, bypass sanctions, and retain settlement capabilities.

If they sell BTC now and convert it back into dollars, stablecoins, or other financial assets, it essentially exposes them back to the system they were trying to avoid—this is logically self-defeating.

From the U.S. perspective, there is also a lack of immediate motivation to sell.

In the past, the U.S. sold coins to deal with clearly owned judicial assets;

But in the current political environment, selling such a large batch of BTC would neither completely solve fiscal issues nor would it create huge market volatility, which would weaken their initiative in the narrative of "strategic Bitcoin reserves."

3⃣ The third point, and the most critical one: can it be sold quickly?

First, a basic fact: the U.S. does not have the technical capability to directly "confiscate" Bitcoin.

What it can do is only two things—

Declare it illegal, or through interrogation and transactions, force relevant parties to hand over the private keys.

If this batch of Bitcoin uses a national-level multi-signature, decentralized authority, and geographically isolated structure, then even if many key figures are captured, it may not be possible to piece together complete control.

And even in the most extreme hypothetical scenario—if the U.S. somehow pieced together the complete private key, such a large amount of BTC could not be dumped into the market like exchange assets.

Any rational disposal method can only be handled over many years, in batches, off-market, and through agreements, rather than a one-time market shock.

In other words, I believe it does not have the conditions for sudden selling pressure.

If a batch of national-level $BTC cannot be sold, cannot be moved, and remains in a state of long-term contention and freezing, does it count as having been effectively locked out of circulation?

I think this question deserves more thought; the result may be contrary to what you envision!

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