Original | Odaily Planet Daily (@OdailyChina)

Author｜jk

The well-known cryptocurrency research institution The Block Research has released its annual prediction report at the beginning of the new year, as is customary. As one of the earliest established professional research teams in the industry, The Block Research is influential in the community due to its in-depth data analysis and reliable market insights. This year, their analyst team has set several ambitious goals: Bitcoin is expected to surge to $140,000, the market cap of stablecoins will exceed $500 billion, Polymarket and Base are set to issue tokens and enter the top ten, and several crypto companies are expected to go public, among others. Interestingly, the analysts' views are not entirely consistent; some are optimistic about a small bull market in 2026, while others believe the market will continue to diverge.

This prediction report is a combination of independent viewpoints from various individuals. Let’s take a look at what the top researchers in the industry have to say; remember to come back at the end of the year to see who gets proven wrong!

Steven's Predictions

Bitmine, under Tom Lee, will sell ETH for the first time before the end of Q1 2026. This sale will act as a catalyst, prompting more Digital Asset Trusts (DAT) to follow suit, further dampening market sentiment.

Bitcoin's market dominance will remain above 50% throughout the year.

Polymarket and Base are about to issue tokens, with fully diluted valuations expected to enter the top ten.

The Base ecosystem will see a surge of mobile-first crypto applications. The market will experience several waves of small hot spot rotations similar to those in 2025, including: RWA (Real World Assets) sector, prediction market sector, and mobile projects.

Tether, along with other institutions, will launch a crypto exchange in the U.S.

Robinhood will launch cryptocurrency perpetual contracts.

Eden's Predictions

The velocity of stablecoin circulation will explode, primarily driven by regulated payment institutions beginning to adopt stablecoins for clearing and settlement. The total market cap of stablecoins will exceed $400 billion, but USDT's market share will decline. The number of stablecoins with a market cap over $1 billion will reach 20. The total value of non-stablecoin RWA will exceed $30 billion. Other commodities, aside from gold, will also achieve tokenization and gain some market recognition.

Decentralized perpetual contract exchanges will launch stock and commodity perpetual contracts, generating substantial trading volume. Whether in spot or perpetual contracts, the trading volume ratio between DEX and CEX will stabilize around 20%. DEXs based on Request for Quote (RFQ) models will emerge.

Polymarket and Kalshi's annual trading volume will at least triple, and the two will engage in fierce competition for exclusive partnerships. At least one of them will launch its own blockchain.

Plasma will become a top four public chain in terms of Total Value Locked (TVL) due to real on-chain activity, being one of the few enterprise-level blockchains with genuine organic growth. Base and MetaMask will issue native tokens. Several leading crypto companies, including Kraken, BitGo, and Consensys, will initiate IPOs, regaining mainstream capital attention. Strategy and BitMine will not sell their holdings of BTC and ETH.

Bitcoin will break $140,000. Although Bitcoin's market share will decline, it will not fall significantly below 50%.

Bitcoin will reach a new high in Q2.

NFT and memecoin launch platforms will not make a comeback.

The concept of privacy will gradually fade from the market.

The four-year cycle theory will be disproven by the end of the year.

Gabriel's Predictions

The trading price of DAT will continue to be below the adjusted net asset value (mNAV), forcing many funds to sell assets. As crypto ETFs become increasingly convenient to trade, with a better risk-reward ratio, the DAT narrative will gradually lose its appeal.

Massive token unlocks combined with weak market sentiment will lead to continuous selling pressure on tokens issued during this cycle. Short-sighted buyback and burn strategies will become burdens for project teams as market sentiment worsens and cash reserves dwindle.

Financing valuations will be significantly lower than this year's levels. Many venture capitalists will learn lessons from overvalued investments—while they may seem cheap compared to previous cycles, as the industry matures and speculation wanes, valuations will continue to decline.

Native network tokens will struggle to attract buyers as stablecoins become the most attractive and widely used asset class in DeFi, with on-chain activity rapidly shifting from ETH and SOL to USDC.

Ivan's Predictions

2026 will present a K-shaped recovery pattern: low-quality projects will lose market attention, while funds and focus will concentrate on high-quality projects with real paying users.

Prominent sectors include decentralized perpetual contract exchanges and prediction markets.

Crypto projects will generally begin to delay token issuance, opting for the IPO route instead. Similarly, high-quality DAT will continue to explore on-chain application scenarios, while other funds will be forced to sell tokens under the pressure of continuously shrinking net asset values.

As altcoins struggle to maintain market positions, Bitcoin's market share will rise in 2026, with funds flowing towards publicly listed crypto companies. Crypto stocks will continue to perform strongly, thanks to business diversification (mining companies transitioning to AI computing power, exchanges launching stock trading, etc.). Despite volatility, Bitcoin's performance in 2026 will outperform the Nasdaq. In non-crypto sectors, the U.S. selling of gold will signal a bottom for the dollar index.

Brandon's Predictions

In 2026, the rise of deposit tokens issued by banks will lead to fragmented institutional liquidity across proprietary ledgers of various banks (e.g., competition between JPM Coin and Citi Coin). Due to the structural inability of global banks to hold significant amounts of competitors' liabilities, USDC will become the dominant neutral bridging asset, with much of its growth in 2026 coming from its value as a settlement tool between isolated banking networks.

Agent-to-Agent trading will be standardized on the x402 protocol and will occupy a significant share of global on-chain activity.

Cryptocurrency "Greek letter" derivatives, such as implied volatility products (like BTCVOL-PERP) or funding rate swaps, will gain market favor in 2026.

Alessandro's Predictions

2026 will start slowly, with the first half operating within a volatile range. High-risk premiums and capital selectivity will lead to the best performance from mainstream coins, with sustained winners being those with real users and continuously used products, especially wallets and trading platforms, which can continue to attract customers even if token performance is weak. The second half will generally lean bullish, with a few ecosystems and projects attracting most of the incremental funds, with the strongest buying coming from new consumer products that combine risk with solid fundamentals.

Cross-chain interoperability will become the annual theme, with improvements in cross-chain routing and chain abstraction allowing "super applications" to gain market share. RWA will make progress through tokenized stocks, equity perpetual contracts, and credit products, while traditional finance continues to advance internal or permissioned distributed ledger technology. This exacerbates the divergence between "true cryptocurrencies" (as high-risk testing grounds for new mechanisms and markets) and enterprise-level DLT settlement systems.

Better execution, tools, and automation will further concentrate arbitrage among professional institutions. The supply of stablecoins will accelerate, with the dollar remaining dominant, but the Swiss franc and Singapore dollar will achieve the strongest growth from a small base. The prediction market will experience compound growth during the U.S. midterm elections, while the risk of a chaotic insider trading investigation is also rising.

Simon's Predictions

Bitcoin's market share will remain above 50%. The total market cap of cryptocurrencies will not exceed $4 trillion. ETF fund flows for all coins will maintain net inflows throughout the year. The trading volume of non-BTC and ETH ETFs will reach $20 billion. The adoption rate of stablecoins will continue to grow, with traditional enterprises launching new stablecoins, and existing stablecoins will continue to expand.

The prediction market will be the fastest-growing crypto application in 2026, with open interest reaching $500 million, and trading volume will account for 3% of total CEX volume. These platforms will issue tokens to actively attract users. Thanks to technological advancements, the trading volume of decentralized derivatives will continue to grow, reaching 25% of centralized derivatives trading volume.

NFTs will not revive in 2026, and the trading volume of the NFT market will continue to shrink.

Tiago's Predictions

The prediction market will continue to be one of the strongest narratives in the crypto space, while other concepts that dominated the market over the past two years, such as memecoins and various launch platforms, will lose momentum.

Even if ETFs and other financial instruments continue to attract attention from institutions and retail investors, Bitcoin and other mainstream coins will struggle to create new historical highs against the backdrop of escalating geopolitical tensions.

Stablecoins will remain the strongest narrative for attracting new users into the crypto space, with major players either launching their own stablecoins or establishing partnerships with mature institutions like Circle and Tether.

Ian's Predictions

Most DATs will collapse in 2026 as their stock prices fall below net asset value, breaking the equity issuance model that supported their growth in 2025. Crypto ETFs offer better liquidity and lower fees, further squeezing the survival space for DATs. Strategy and a few large institutions will survive due to scale and brand advantages, but small DATs will face liquidation, acquisition, or forced transformation.

The supply of stablecoins will exceed $500 billion, with trading volume surpassing the U.S. ACH system in Q3. Growth will accelerate along two lines: continuing expansion in emerging markets and integration into corporate payment processes in developed markets. Companies will shift from passive holding to actual application, moving part of cross-border vendor payments, international contractor salaries, and intra-group settlements to stablecoin rails. At least one major card organization will complete 5-10% of cross-border merchant settlements through stablecoins by the end of the year. B2B payment platforms will increasingly integrate stablecoin options for international invoicing.

The prediction market will experience explosive growth during the U.S. midterm elections, with Polymarket's trading volume quadrupling compared to 2024. The industry will see divergence: Polymarket and Kalshi will dominate cultural and political markets, while specialized DeFi platforms focus on leveraged financial products. 85% of follow-up platforms will shut down due to an inability to attract users. The legal framework for sports betting and prediction markets will remain unclear until the end of the year, but due to the enormous and attractive market size, user growth will continue to accelerate.

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