Preface

Standing at the end of 2025, looking back at the global capital markets of this year, we have witnessed not only the rise and fall of numbers but also a profound paradigm revolution. As Trump returns to the White House, Nvidia's market value surpasses $5 trillion, gold historically reaches $4,000, and Bitcoin experiences violent fluctuations amid policy games—we realize that the order of the old world is collapsing, and the contours of the new era are yet to be clarified.

This year, the market seeks order amid chaos, firmly betting on seemingly small yet certain trends in a highly uncertain environment. The return of political strongmen ignited the flames of policy uncertainty, the rapid advance of artificial intelligence led to the expansion of the trillion-dollar club, and the loosening of monetary order triggered a reconstruction of global asset pricing.

I. Macroeconomic Changes—Reconstructing Order in Power Games

Trump Trade: From Threat to Predictable Policy Tool

On January 20, 2025, Trump was sworn in for the second time, marking the beginning of the "policy reassessment era" in global capital markets. Trump's "MAGA 2.0" policy package contains three core elements: weaponization of trade protectionism, radical fiscal expansion, and localization of industrial return. This policy combination essentially sacrifices the efficiency of globalization in exchange for domestic political stability.

The tariff farce in April became the most representative event of the year. On April 2, Trump imposed "reciprocal tariffs" on major trading partners, causing the S&P 500 index to plummet 9% that week, with global stock market value evaporating by over $5 trillion. However, just a week later, on April 9, he suddenly announced a 90-day suspension of tariffs, leading the market to rebound 5.7%, marking the largest single-week increase since November 2020.

This cycle of "policy threat-market panic-policy concession-market euphoria" is a carefully designed political economic experiment. The market gradually learned to find signals amid the noise, and "TACO trading" became a buzzword. By October, when Trump threatened to impose additional tariffs again, the panic index only rose to 22, far below April's 38, indicating that the market had begun to view Trump's tariff threats as a predictable policy tool rather than a true "black swan."

The essence of Trump economics is using policy uncertainty as a negotiation tool, seeking a dynamic balance between protectionism and globalization. While this model increases short-term volatility, it also creates significant alpha opportunities for investors who can accurately predict policy directions. In 2026, as the election approaches, this policy game will become more frequent, and the market will need to learn to find patterns amid chaos.

The Fed's Difficult Choice: The Dilemma of Anti-Inflation vs. Preventing Recession

At the Jackson Hole meeting on August 22, Powell publicly acknowledged for the first time that "the path to rate cuts is clear," and the market immediately priced in a 75 basis point cut for the year. This prediction turned out to be quite accurate—rate cuts in September, October, and December brought the federal funds rate down from 4.5% to 3.75%.

More notably, on December 10, the RMP (Reserve Management Purchase Program) was announced, with the Fed stating it would purchase $40 billion in short-term government bonds each month. This essentially represents a form of quantitative easing, as the Fed struggles to balance debt monetization and inflation control.

Looking ahead to 2026, the Fed faces a more complex situation. Powell's term will end in May 2026, and the policy stance of his successor remains unclear. If Trump is re-elected, he may appoint a more dovish chair, further weakening the Fed's independence. Meanwhile, inflation has not been fully tamed. In this context, the Fed's policy space is very limited. Continuing to cut rates could reignite inflation; stopping easing too early could trigger a recession.

This dilemma means that the monetary policy path in 2026 will be more tortuous, and market volatility will remain high. Investors need to closely monitor changes in the wording of each FOMC meeting, seeking trading opportunities in subtle policy differences.

The Underlying Currents of Dollar Hegemony: Credit Devaluation and Multipolar Trends

In the macro narrative of 2025, the most profound change is the quiet loosening of the dollar's status. The dollar index plummeted 12.5% over the year, dropping from the 110 mark at the beginning of the year to a low of 96.37 in July, marking the worst half-year performance since the collapse of the Bretton Woods system in 1973.

This crisis stems from a "triple threat": the narrowing of the U.S. economic advantage, which weakened the impetus for capital to flow into the U.S.; the exhaustion of U.S. fiscal credit, leading international investors to demand higher risk premiums, with the proportion of foreign investors holding U.S. debt hitting a 20-year low; and the disappearance of interest rate differentials, as the Fed cut rates while other central banks remained inactive.

The weakness of the dollar has cast a wide impact on asset prices: a comprehensive rise in commodities, with prices of gold, silver, copper, aluminum, and other dollar-denominated goods soaring collectively. Additionally, there was a general appreciation of non-dollar currencies, with the euro rising from 1.03 to 1.17 against the dollar, and the yuan rising from 7.2 to 7.0 against the dollar. Finally, the attractiveness of emerging market assets increased, with the MSCI Emerging Markets Index rising 28% over the year, outperforming the S&P 500 Index by nearly 13 percentage points.

Of course, the loosening of dollar hegemony does not equate to its collapse. The dollar still holds an absolute dominant position in global foreign exchange reserves and international trade settlements.

But history tells us that the decline of hegemony often begins with erosion at the margins rather than a collapse at the center. The pound was still the world's largest reserve currency in 1914, but by the Bretton Woods Conference in 1944, the dollar had taken its place. This process took 30 years. While the challenges facing the dollar today are not as severe as those faced by the pound back then, the trend towards multipolarity is clearly visible. For investors, the key is not to predict when dollar hegemony will end, but to find structural opportunities in the process of multipolarity—whether in physical assets, non-dollar currencies, or emerging markets benefiting from currency diversification.

II. Cryptocurrency Market—The Year of Compliance Under Policy Leadership

From Wild West to Regulation: Policy Becomes the Biggest Alpha

If one word could summarize the cryptocurrency market in 2025, it would be "the year of compliance." This year, crypto assets completely bid farewell to the speculative frenzy of the Wild West era and entered a policy-driven institutional cycle. From Trump's executive orders to congressional legislation, from strategic reserves to the explosion of ETFs, the clarification of the U.S. regulatory framework not only did not stifle the industry but instead gave rise to historic market trends.

The price movement of Bitcoin in 2025 exhibited a clear "three-stage rocket" pattern, with each stage catalyzed by specific policies.

The first stage of the rocket ignited on January 20. After Trump was officially inaugurated, he signed a pro-crypto executive order, clearly opposing central bank digital currencies (CBDCs) and establishing the strategic position of the private crypto industry. This statement directly eliminated the "regulatory sword of Damocles" that had troubled the market for years. Investors began to believe that cryptocurrencies would not face the regulatory iron fist as they did in 2022, but would receive policy treatment equivalent to traditional finance. Bitcoin quickly rose from $74,000 at the beginning of the year, reaching a peak of $109,600 on January 20. Mainstream coins like Ethereum and Solana also rose in tandem, pushing the total market capitalization of cryptocurrencies above $3 trillion.

The second stage of the rocket ignited on March 6. Trump signed the "Establishing Strategic Bitcoin Reserve Executive Order," announcing that the U.S. government would establish a national-level Bitcoin reserve to address future monetary crises. This policy not only represented official recognition of Bitcoin's value but also elevated cryptocurrencies from marginal assets to sovereign-level strategic assets. However, the thrust of the second stage was soon offset by macro factors. In March and April, under the risk of Trump's tariff conflicts, global risk assets came under pressure, and Bitcoin temporarily fell to a low of $74,500.

The real upward surge came from the third stage of the rocket—legislation coming into effect. On July 18, the "GENIUS Stablecoin Act" was officially passed in Congress, marking the establishment of a complete legal framework for cryptocurrencies in the U.S. This cleared the final barriers for traditional financial capital to enter the crypto market and was seen as a signal for large-scale entry. In July, the inflow of Bitcoin spot ETFs in the U.S. reached $8.9 billion, the highest for the year. Bitcoin's price soared from $92,000 at the beginning of July, breaking through $120,000 by the end of July, reaching a historic high of $124,470. Traditional asset management giants like BlackRock and Fidelity became major buyers. Public companies began to include Bitcoin on their balance sheets. MicroStrategy increased its Bitcoin holdings by over 150,000 throughout the year, with tech companies like Tesla and Block following suit.

The Warning of the October 11 Crash: Macro Factors Still Dominate

However, behind the euphoria, risks were accumulating. The "October 11 crash" became the most brutal scene of the year and provided a profound lesson for the crypto market.

In early October, Bitcoin continued its strong performance, reaching a new high of $126,000 on October 7. The market widely expected that with continued ETF inflows and global liquidity easing, Bitcoin would head towards $150,000. However, on the evening of October 10, a sudden piece of news shattered all illusions.

Trump threatened on social media that if China did not make concessions in trade negotiations, he would impose a 100% tariff on Chinese goods. This statement immediately triggered a risk-averse sentiment in global risk assets. Asian stock markets opened sharply lower on Friday, with the A-share market dropping 3.2% in a single day and the Hang Seng Index falling 4.1%. When U.S. stocks opened, the S&P 500 index opened down 2.8%, and the Nasdaq index fell 3.5%.

The reaction in the cryptocurrency market was even more severe. Bitcoin began a waterfall decline in the early hours of October 11, plummeting from $126,000 to $101,000 in just 12 hours, a drop of nearly 20%. Mainstream coins like Ethereum and Solana saw even larger declines, reaching 25% and 32%, respectively. The total liquidation amount across the network reached $19.8 billion, marking the third-highest record in history, only behind the crashes in May 2021 and November 2022.

This crash exposed the fragility of the crypto market: when macro systemic risks emerged, Bitcoin did not function as a safe-haven asset but instead became one of the first high-risk assets to be sold off. The high-leverage trading structure exacerbated the cascading effect, with a large number of long positions being forcibly liquidated, creating a negative feedback loop.

Paradigm Shift: From Technical Narrative to Macro Narrative

Looking back at the entire year of 2025, Bitcoin started at $74,000, peaked at $126,000, and ended the year around $90,000, with an annual decline of about 6.6%. In stark contrast, gold rose 70% over the year, silver rose 124%, and physical precious metals outperformed digital assets.

This result prompted a profound reflection in the market: what exactly is Bitcoin? Is it a tool for hedging inflation, a safe-haven asset against currency devaluation, or merely a speculative target during liquidity easing? The performance in 2025 provided a harsh answer: Bitcoin failed to demonstrate its safe-haven properties during multiple crises in 2025, instead proving to be a high-beta tool extremely sensitive to liquidity withdrawal.

The deeper issue is that the pricing factors in the crypto market have fundamentally changed. In the past, Bitcoin's price was mainly driven by on-chain indicators (active addresses, transaction volume) and industry events (halving, technical upgrades, hacking incidents). However, the market performance in 2025 shows that the influence of macro factors such as the Fed's monetary policy, U.S. fiscal policy, and global geopolitical events on Bitcoin's price is becoming increasingly important.

This means that Bitcoin has become deeply embedded in the traditional financial system and is no longer an "alternative asset" independent of the macro economy. Industry positives are also difficult to offset macro negatives. When the Fed releases hawkish signals, local geopolitical risks rise, and global liquidity tightens, no matter how much policy support or institutional entry the crypto industry has, Bitcoin's price struggles to stand alone. The macro β attribute of crypto assets has become an unavoidable reality.

The narrative of "digital gold" requires time to validate. For Bitcoin to truly become a widely accepted store of value, it must at least undergo a complete economic recession cycle to prove its resilience in times of crisis. Until then, positioning Bitcoin as a "high-risk growth asset" rather than a "safe-haven asset" may be a more realistic attitude. In 2026, the trends in the crypto market will still largely depend on the macro liquidity environment and policy regulatory progress, and investors need to be mentally prepared for high volatility.

III. U.S. Stock Market—AI Bubble, Energy Revolution, and Valuation Reconstruction

Two Shocks of the AI Bubble: Dual Inquisition of Technology and Business Models

The U.S. stock market in 2025 continued its strong momentum, with the three major indices frequently hitting historical highs. By the end of the year, the Nasdaq index had risen 22%, the S&P 500 index by 17%, and the Dow Jones index by 14%.

The AI narrative remained one of the main lines guiding the U.S. stock market. Google surged over 66%, with its breakthrough in Gemini making it the biggest gainer among the "Seven Giants," while Nvidia rose over 40% to surpass a $5 trillion market value; the AI industry chain flourished: NEBIUS soared 225% due to data center construction, CoreWeave rose over 100%, and storage chips experienced a "super cycle" due to the explosion of AI data, with Micron Technology skyrocketing 230%; on the software side, Palantir rose 157%, Applovin 125%, and AI healthcare stock Guardant Health surged over 235%.

This seemed like another tech stock-led bull market, but profound structural changes had occurred within the market. The most shocking events of the year were the two shocks to the AI valuation bubble.

The first shock came from the technical side. On January 27, DeepSeek released the DeepSeek-V3 open-source large model, with training costs of only $5.6 million, while GPT-4 exceeded $100 million. This news sent shockwaves through the global AI industry, leading the market to realize: could the massive capital expenditures that built the computing moat of the giants be breached by low-cost, high-efficiency model architectures? On January 27, Nvidia plummeted 17%, evaporating nearly $600 billion in market value, marking the largest single-day loss in U.S. stock history. The chip index fell over 9%, with Broadcom down 17% and TSMC down 13%.

This "DeepSeek Shockwave" became a watershed moment in 2025. The market began to reassess whether the technological barriers behind the high valuations of AI giants were solid and the return cycles of massive capital expenditures. However, Nvidia gradually restored confidence with solid earnings reports, and Wall Street analysts suggested that DeepSeek's breakthrough would not threaten its business but would instead accelerate industry adoption by lowering the barriers to AI usage, thereby expanding the overall market size. Nvidia's stock price soared alongside its performance, and on October 28, Nvidia surpassed a $5 trillion market value, becoming the first publicly traded company in human history to do so.

The second shock targeted the business model. On September 10, Oracle signed a $300 billion computing power procurement agreement with OpenAI, stipulating that OpenAI would purchase computing power from Oracle between 2027 and 2032. This deal caused Oracle's stock price to soar 35% in a single day. However, the market quickly questioned this "AI circular trading" model: is it value creation or a financial game when suppliers invest in customers, who then purchase services?

These doubts were validated after Oracle released its quarterly earnings report. Although revenue grew 28% year-on-year, new orders from external customers fell short of expectations, with most growth coming from transactions with related parties like OpenAI and CoreWeave. Free cash flow growth was only 12%, far below revenue growth, indicating issues with business quality. The market reacted immediately, and Oracle's stock price fell from its September peak, ending the year down 45%, nearly halving.

These two upheavals together revealed a new reality of AI investment: the market has shifted from "narrative hype" to the "performance verification" stage. Funds are no longer blindly buying into the capital expenditure stories of giants but are beginning to focus on the actual implementation and commercialization returns of AI applications.

Power Shortages Give Rise to a New Main Line: Investment Shift from Computing Power to Energy

As the market became more cautious about pure AI hardware and software valuations, a new investment main line emerged: power infrastructure. A report released by Morgan Stanley in October pointed out that as AI infrastructure construction accelerates, the electricity demand of U.S. data centers is significantly rising, with a projected power gap of up to 44 gigawatts by 2028, equivalent to the output of 44 nuclear power plants.

The capital market quickly sensed the opportunity, and power-related concept stocks became the new favorites. The first investment main line is the revival of nuclear power. Oklo Inc soared 280% over the year, Centrus Energy rose nearly 300%, Energy Fuels increased nearly 200%, and GE Vernova rose over 100%. These companies share a common feature: they focus on small modular reactors (SMRs), which have advantages of short construction cycles, flexible siting, and high safety.

The second investment main line is fuel cells and energy storage. Bloom Energy surged 327% over the year, becoming the top gainer among power stocks. The company's solid oxide fuel cell (SOFC) technology can directly convert natural gas into electricity, and its installations can be completed on-site without relying on the grid, making it very suitable for providing distributed power to data centers. Companies like Alphabet and Apple have deployed Bloom Energy's fuel cell systems in their campuses, with a total installed capacity exceeding 800 megawatts.

Market Breadth Expands: From a Tech Stock Solo to a Multi-Sector Chorus

Another important feature of the U.S. stock market in 2025 was the significant broadening of the rally. While tech stocks remained the engine, traditional sectors like industrials, finance, and energy began to contribute substantial returns, shifting the market from a "tech stock solo" to a "multi-sector chorus."

Data shows that 79% of the S&P 500's gains in 2025 came from earnings growth rather than valuation expansion, with the rally broadening from tech to finance, industrials, and utilities; despite overall valuations being at a historical high of 91%, the "Seven Giants" that contributed 43% of returns had a relative valuation of only 15%. Meanwhile, since the U.S. stock market hit a short-term low on November 20, the Russell 2000 small-cap index has risen 11%, while the "Tech Seven Giants" index's gains were only half of that.

As 2026 approaches, Wall Street is forming an increasingly clear consensus: the tech giants that led the bull market in recent years will no longer be the sole protagonists in the market, and sector rotation will become the new investment theme for the coming year. Goldman Sachs noted that the global stock market in 2025 has shown a clear trend of broadening sector gains and rotations, a trend that will continue to strengthen in 2026, breaking the previous market concentration on AI tech stocks. Therefore, in 2026, non-U.S. and non-tech sectors will continue to perform strongly under rotation. Morgan Stanley analysts share a similar view: large tech stocks will still perform well but will lag behind new leading areas, especially consumer goods and small-cap stocks.

This means that investors need to step out of the comfort zone of tech stocks and seek opportunities in traditional sectors, shifting focus from tech giants to undervalued traditional cyclical stocks, small-cap stocks, and economically sensitive sectors like healthcare, industrials, energy, and finance.

IV. Commodities—The Resonance of Fiat Currency Credit Devaluation and Physical Scarcity

Gold Breaks $4,000: A Vote of No Confidence in the Fiat Currency System

In 2025, physical assets experienced a rare super bull market, with prices of gold, silver, copper, and other commodities soaring collectively. This was not merely an inflation hedge but a vote of no confidence by global investors in the credit of the fiat currency system. When sovereign debt expands, fiscal discipline loosens, and the credibility of monetary policy declines, only physical assets without sovereign credit can provide a true safety margin.

Gold's performance was the most astonishing. At the beginning of the year, the spot price of gold was $2,624 per ounce; by the end of the year, it had reached $4,200, with an annual increase of over 70%, marking the strongest performance since 1979. Even more shocking was the sustainability of the rally—gold recorded positive monthly returns in 9 out of 12 months, with only 3 months showing losses, demonstrating an impressive trend.

The logic driving gold prices underwent a structural change. Traditional theories suggest that gold prices are negatively correlated with the real yields of U.S. Treasuries, but in 2025, this correlation weakened. The yield on 10-year U.S. Treasuries rose above 4.6%, reaching the highest level since May, yet gold prices increased by 70%. This indicates that the pricing logic has shifted from "interest rate pricing" to "credit pricing"—investors are no longer concerned about the opportunity cost of holding gold but rather the credit risk of holding fiat currency assets.

In this context, gold's role is not to hedge against short-term inflation or market volatility but to hedge against long-term currency credit risk. It serves as a form of "ultimate insurance"—it may underperform other assets in normal times, but when systemic crises erupt, it can preserve value or even appreciate. The performance in 2025 reinforced this positioning, with more institutional investors incorporating gold into their long-term strategic allocations.

Silver Frenzy: From Monetary Attribute to Key Material for New Industries

If gold's rise was primarily driven by its monetary attributes, silver's explosive growth benefited from both its monetary and industrial properties. Silver surged 140% over the year, skyrocketing from $29 per ounce at the beginning of the year to nearly $80 per ounce by year-end, outpacing gold and becoming the best-performing commodity of 2025.

Silver's monetary attributes are similar to gold's; in the context of dollar depreciation and questioning of sovereign credit, silver also became sought after. Compared to gold's high threshold of over $4,000 per ounce, silver's lower price made it more accessible to individual investors.

The explosion of industrial demand was also a factor driving silver prices up, with photovoltaic, AI, and new energy vehicles becoming new demand engines for silver: major economies worldwide are accelerating photovoltaic deployment; in AI chips, silver is indispensable in high-performance chips; electric vehicles use an average of about 55 grams of silver per vehicle, primarily for battery management systems, motors, and charging stations.

However, silver also experienced several sharp rises and falls in 2025. On April 4, liquidity tensions triggered by tariff fears caused silver to plummet 7.06% in a single day, with a cumulative drop of over 15% in two days. On October 21, London spot silver fell 7.11% in a single day, marking the largest drop since early 2021, with a cumulative decline of 11.7% over three days. These flash crashes did not signify the end of the trend but rather a violent cleansing of excessive leverage and floating profits. After each deep correction, silver prices quickly recovered and reached new highs.

Looking ahead to 2026, major banks generally predict that the super cycle logic for silver remains valid. Investment banks like Goldman Sachs, Bank of America, and Citigroup have raised their target prices, with a common expectation that silver will reach $100 per ounce in 2026. Of course, high volatility also means high risk. For investors, it is essential to be mentally prepared for significant fluctuations.

Divergence Between Precious Metals and Oil: The Deep Impact of Energy Transition

In stark contrast to the prosperity of precious metals is the decline of oil. Brent crude oil prices fell from $78 per barrel at the beginning of the year; although there was a brief rebound to $78 in June due to Middle Eastern conflicts, it quickly fell back, ending the year around $62, with an annual decline of over 20%. This structural change signifies that oil is transitioning from a "growth commodity" to a "sunset commodity." While geopolitical conflicts may still trigger spikes in oil prices in the short term, the long-term trend is one of shrinking demand and oversupply.

The divergence between precious metals and oil essentially reflects the replacement of old and new energy systems. Investors need to recognize that the traditional commodity cycle logic is becoming ineffective, and the long-term trend of energy transition will continue to reshape the commodity landscape. New energy materials like copper, lithium, nickel, and cobalt will continue to benefit, while the long-term outlook for oil, natural gas, and coal remains bleak. This is not merely a simple cyclical fluctuation but a paradigm shift.

Conclusion: Maintain Awe and Courage; Diversification is More Important Than Ever

Looking back at 2025, we witnessed too many "impossible" events: Trump returning to the White House, Nvidia surpassing $5 trillion, gold reaching $4,000, Bitcoin experiencing a rollercoaster ride driven by policy, and the dollar posting its worst performance in half a century. These events point to a reality: we are at the forefront of a paradigm revolution, where the old order is collapsing and new rules have yet to be established.

In such an era, the greatest challenge in investing is not predicting the future but maintaining clarity amid uncertainty. The market rewards those who maintain both awe and courage—awe refers to recognizing the limits of one’s understanding and acknowledging that black swan events cannot be predicted; courage means executing decisively once a direction is confirmed, without being deterred by short-term fluctuations.

The core lessons that 2025 taught us are threefold:

First, policy has become the largest source of Alpha. Whether it’s the compliance of cryptocurrencies, the tariff battles in the U.S. stock market, or the currency devaluation logic in commodities, policy factors are at the helm. Traditional fundamental analysis remains important, but without accurately predicting policy directions, even the most sophisticated models will fail. Investors need to establish a macro policy analysis framework and closely track policy dynamics in the U.S., China, the European Union, and Japan.

Second, the lifecycle of narratives is shortening. In the past, a good story could drive stock prices up for years (like the FAANG stocks from 2017 to 2021). However, in 2025, from the DeepSeek shock to Oracle's collapse, the market's speed of narrative validation accelerated significantly. This requires investors to move beyond the "storytelling" phase and delve into business details to verify the sustainability of business models. Those who only chase trends without conducting in-depth research will face more painful losses in 2026.

Third, diversification is more important than ever. In 2025, the risks of holding a single asset class were laid bare: those holding a single tech stock suffered heavy losses during the DeepSeek shock, those holding a single cryptocurrency faced liquidation during the 1011 crash, and those holding a single fiat currency saw their value shrink amid currency devaluation. Only those investors who balanced their allocations across stocks, bonds, commodities, and alternative assets achieved stable returns.

Looking ahead to 2026, we will face a year that is both more turbulent and filled with opportunities. The U.S. elections, changes in Federal Reserve leadership, the situation in the Middle East, AI commercialization, and energy transition—each variable could trigger significant market upheaval. But as Buffett said, "Be fearful when others are greedy, and greedy when others are fearful—but most importantly, never waste a crisis."

Crisis equals opportunity. As dollar hegemony weakens, the window for allocating physical assets opens; when the AI bubble bursts, truly valuable applications will emerge; when the market experiences panic selling, quality assets will be available at discounted prices. The key is to maintain a calm mind, have sufficient cash reserves, and be ready to act at any moment.

The paradigm revolution of 2025 teaches us: the future is not predicted but shaped by every decision, every transaction, and every steadfastness made today.

Let us carry the lessons of 2025, with a sense of awe towards uncertainty and a desire for opportunity, as we confidently move towards 2026.

It will be a challenging year, but it will also be a great year.

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