⏰ January 4, 2026: Maduro captured, Polymarket betting god earns over $400k, BTC firmly stands at $90k on its 17th birthday!

In the past 24 hours, the Crypto market has been like a roller coaster:

The U.S. military launched a surprise raid in Venezuela, swiftly capturing Maduro, causing BTC to dip to $89k but was violently pulled back by mysterious buying;

A trader on Polymarket had heavily bet on "Maduro's departure" in advance, becoming a millionaire overnight, and the prediction market has completely gone viral!

Meanwhile, BTC celebrates its 17th birthday, with Saylor and Elon collectively celebrating, and ETF funds reversing with a net inflow of over $600M,

Memecoins and DeFi veterans are celebrating together…

Short-term focus on event-driven pulse volatility, mid-term layout for DeFi restart, RWA, and AI integration funding narrative.

1️⃣ Macro / Market: Overall positive!

1) Global macro, liquidity, regulation, and risk appetite changes: The Federal Reserve paused interest rate adjustments in January, easing short-term liquidity pressure, and Wall Street's green opening has driven a rebound in risk assets, but tightening regulatory expectations accelerate M&A activity.

2) Price changes, market sentiment, and structural judgments for BTC, ETH, and BNB:

$BTC rebounded to $91,000 (+2.5%), breaking through the $90k mark, sentiment shifted from the end-of-year low to stability, with institutional buying supporting a strong structure;

$ETH stabilized at $3,104 (+0.58%), with clear signs of institutional rotation, significant potential for DeFi recovery;

$BNB slightly rose to $873 (+0.12%), sentiment neutral, reliant on ecosystem expansion but facing competitive pressure.

Others: $SOL rose 4.29% to $132, $DOGE surged 11.91% to $0.1419, $XRP increased by 8% to break $2, surpassing $BNB to become the third-largest cryptocurrency by market cap.

Bitwu's perspective:

Risk: Geopolitical surprises could still trigger flash crashes;

Operation: Focus on short-term positions, watch for the sustainability of the $90k breakout, mid-term view favors ETH due to institutional rotation.

2️⃣ BTC / ETH Spot ETF Fund Flows:

BTC ETF net inflow of $471M (led by BlackRock with $287M); ETH ETF net inflow of $174M (Grayscale $54M).

Substantial impact: Reversing the outflow trend at the end of the year, BlackRock's leading purchases drive price rebounds and sentiment recovery, confirming institutional demand.

Bitwu's perspective: Risk: Inflows may quickly reverse if not sustained; Operation: After confirming inflows, leverage can be increased, short-term arbitrage on ETF premiums.

3️⃣ Key events affecting the market:

1) U.S. captures Venezuela's Maduro: BTC briefly dipped to $89k before quickly recovering. Important: Geopolitical risks amplify volatility, but buying pressure is strong.

Link: https://x.com/elonmusk/status/2007509838604149168 (Elon congratulates Trump).

2) BTC's 17th birthday: Strengthening long-term narrative. Link: https://x.com/saylor/status/2007450409271525622 (Saylor's post, over 20k likes).

3) SEC anti-crypto commissioner Crenshaw resigns: Positive for the crypto sector and regulatory expectations.

Bitwu's perspective: Risk: High geopolitical uncertainty; Operation: Event-driven short-term opportunities, regulatory positives support mid-term bullishness.

4️⃣ The hottest Crypto sectors in the past 24 hours:

Sector 1: Memecoins (PEPE, DOGE, etc.).

Discussion: The 2026 meme season has begun, PEPE +25%, DOGE +11%. Reasons for spread: Post-holiday sentiment rebound + fund rotation.

Sector 2: Prediction Markets

Joe Pompliano wrote about a Polymarket trader who bet over $30,000 on Venezuelan President Maduro's departure, profiting significantly after Maduro's arrest in the U.S. The article frames the controversy of prediction markets encouraging "insider trading."

Original link: https://x.com/JoePompliano/status/2007455311351718118

Bitwu's perspective: Summary: Prediction markets have become the hottest sector within 24 hours, with MeMe's rise bringing heat, as a real high-impact event (Maduro's arrest) validates its profitability. Risk: High volatility can lead to zero; Operation: Small positions chasing hot spots, quick profit-taking, suitable for short-term arbitrage.

5️⃣ New narratives and early signals

Signal 1: Legacy DeFi assets are being repriced (CVX leading, possibly a "DeFi reboot" early signal)

What happened: In CoinGecko's 24h Top Gainers, Convex Finance (CVX) rose 39.5% in 24 hours, entering a high-heat zone.

Interpretation: If in the next 2-3 trading days we see "multiple DeFi blue chips strengthening simultaneously + funds flowing back from meme to cash flow/fee narratives," it would resemble "structural rotation" rather than a single point surge. Currently, it can only be marked as an early signal.

Signal 2: Strengthening RWA tokenization: Solana's RWA ecosystem reached an ATH of $873M, with Ondo @OndoFinance and others expanding. Funding narrative (institutional inflow), not purely emotional.

Trading opportunity: Cross-chain RWA arbitrage (Solana low fees vs ETH liquidity), potential 10-15% returns.

Signal 3: AI + Crypto integration: Virtuals Protocol roadmap + partners, early signals for AI agent payments/prediction markets. Funding narrative dominates. Trading opportunity: Early AI token staking or perp leverage.

Bitwu's perspective: Risk: Regulatory delays in execution; Operation: Mid-term tracking of RWA/AI projects, with structural cross-chain/leverage opportunities.

6️⃣ Key project progress & potential opportunities:

Sui: Ecosystem expansion, privacy/L2 progress.

Ethereum: DeFi restart + ETF inflow, restaking potential.

XRP-related: Opportunities from the price increase.

Bitwu's perspective:

Risk: Uncertainty in regulatory execution;

Operation: Mid-term hold on XRP/ETH, potential doubling opportunities vs short-term pullback risks. XRP: Surpassing BNB to become third largest, ETF inflow + regulatory positives. In the past 24 hours: Price +8%, market rotation.

Structural opportunities: ETH restaking yield 5-10%; XRP regulatory arbitrage. Risk: Intensifying competition.

免责声明：本文章仅代表作者个人观点，不代表本平台的立场和观点。本文章仅供信息分享，不构成对任何人的任何投资建议。用户与作者之间的任何争议，与本平台无关。如网页中刊载的文章或图片涉及侵权，请提供相关的权利证明和身份证明发送邮件到support@aicoin.com，本平台相关工作人员将会进行核查。