Today's most significant news is that the United States has directly captured Venezuelan President Maduro and his wife in Venezuela. This event has attracted global attention, especially from China and Russia. Friends should have seen a lot of information about this; I won't elaborate on international relations. The key point is how this event will impact the U.S. risk market.

First, will this trigger political risks for Trump? Current public information indicates that Trump not only claims the capture of Maduro and his wife but also states that the U.S. will temporarily run Venezuela until a transition is completed. This shifts the narrative from a military action directly to regime change and trusteeship, making it easier to trigger authorization disputes within the U.S. This poses the greatest risk to Trump himself.

Secondly, regarding oil, the U.S. has already implemented a blockade on Venezuelan tankers entering and exiting in December. This means that a month ago, Venezuela's oil exports were already suppressed. The current restrictions are unlikely to further increase oil prices; instead, it is possible that Trump's statement about the U.S. taking over Venezuelan oil could lead to a drop in oil prices, which would be good for U.S. inflation.

For the overall risk market, Trump's actions over the weekend may have been aimed at avoiding impacts on the risk market. After a weekend, the market should ease risk assessments. Now that the individuals have been captured, the next step is to assess the likelihood of escalating U.S. military actions. This operation also reveals the U.S.'s advantages in military, intelligence, and operations, which could have a positive impact on the defense sector. The specific reaction of the U.S. stock market on Monday will be crucial.

Looking at Bitcoin data, it is similar to yesterday's expectations. Over the weekend, the price of $BTC has remained slightly volatile. Although it is currently above $90,000, we still need to observe how the U.S. stock market reacts to the post-holiday situation and the Venezuelan event. The upcoming week may not be peaceful.

The turnover rate over the weekend has decreased, mainly due to short-term profit-taking investors exiting. Other earlier and loss-making investors have not reacted much. Investor sentiment remains quite stable, and even during the weekend in U.S. time, there hasn't been much significant movement. Ordinary cryptocurrency investors have not shown a clear reaction to the Venezuelan event.

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