January 3 Market Outlook Update: Short-term Strengthening, Key Focus on Breakthrough Confirmation
Due to changes in the current market structure, we need to make some adjustments to our previous market views.
Before the upward movement last night, we had maintained a bearish outlook overall, mainly because multiple timeframes were still in a bearish structure, and the upper resistance level had been tested multiple times but failed to break through. Therefore, maintaining a bearish judgment was not an issue.
However, some new signals have emerged in the market.
On one hand, bullish trading volume in the short term has started to increase; on the other hand, Ethereum has taken the lead in completing a structural breakout, which has had a certain positive effect on overall sentiment.
- Bitcoin: The Key Remains at 91,000
For Bitcoin, we have been focusing on the horizontal resistance level above on the hourly chart. This resistance level was tested again last night, with the price reaching around 91,000 at its highest.
We have repeatedly mentioned that 91,000 is a very critical level. Once this level forms an effective breakout, the upper resistance will likely be surpassed, and the market will probably further test the previous high of 94,000.
If 94,000 also breaks through, then from a structural perspective, it is very likely to enter a phase of concentrated short liquidation, and the price is expected to experience a sustained rebound.
From the current market perspective, since last night, bullish momentum has indeed been gradually increasing, and the price is once again challenging the resistance area.
Next, we will focus on two points:
Whether it can stabilize above 90,000 for consolidation;
Whether it can effectively break through the 91,000 level.
If the first resistance is confirmed to be broken, then probabilistically, 94,000 also has the potential to be broken.
- Rebound Space and Upper Pressure
Once 94,000 breaks through, the market will likely form a series of equidistant upward structures, completing the liquidation of previous short positions.
From structural analysis, the potential rebound target range is roughly between 98,000 and 99,000, close to the 100,000 round number.
It is important to note that the weekly 50 moving average is currently around 100,100, which is likely to become the upper limit pressure zone for this round of rebound. Even if the market reaches this area, the difficulty of forming a true breakout remains high.
Therefore, a more reasonable approach is to observe structural changes at high levels rather than blindly chasing the price up.
- Current Trading Strategy
Based on the current judgment:
Before 94,000 is broken, we will not consider shorting in the meantime;
Only when the market re-establishes a clear bearish structure, such as a box breakdown or a lower low, and forms a "decline—rebound—further decline" pattern, will we consider the next phase of short positioning;
For today, it is more suitable to remain on the sidelines.
The true breakout criteria remain:
Price stabilizes above 90,000 for consolidation and completes an effective breakout of 91,000.
- Ethereum Supplementary Notes
Currently, Ethereum has taken the lead in breaking through the key upper resistance level. 3050 is the pressure area we have been focusing on, and it has now been confirmed as broken.
If Ethereum continues to rebound and enters a short liquidation phase, the previous high around 3,450 will likely need to be tested, and the overall rebound target may approach the 3,500 level.
- Summary
Overall, Bitcoin remains the core reference for the market, with Ethereum serving as a leading structural indicator. Ethereum's initial breakout suggests that Bitcoin may follow suit, but patience is required until Bitcoin provides a confirmation signal.
The current strategy remains:
Stay in cash and observe, waiting for clear signals from key positions before making decisions.
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