Beijing time on June 30, Bitcoin's price recorded its first complete monthly decline in nearly a year throughout June, repeatedly falling below the $60,000 mark. At the same time, the U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF experienced its first net outflow on a monthly basis since being approved in January. The tightening regulatory signals combined with the waning momentum post-halving have significantly cooled market risk appetite. The ETF fund curve and Bitcoin price curve shifted from previously moving upward in sync to both declining, prompting the industry to reassess the sustainability and marginal impact of the "ETF bull market" logic.

ETF Net Outflow and Funding Turning Point

● Funding Data: First Complete Outflow Month of the Year:
● In June, the U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF recorded an overall net outflow, breaking the continuous net inflow pattern from February to May, marking the first complete outflow month since its official listing on January 11.
● On multiple days within the month, the daily net outflow reached hundreds of millions of dollars, with several ETFs experiencing continuous outflows for more than three days on certain trading days, indicating a shift in institutional funding rhythm from "only inflows" to "dynamic gaming."

● Leading Products Also Show Signs of Fatigue:
● IBIT (BlackRock) maintained significant net inflows and share growth in previous months, but since June, its daily net inflow has noticeably slowed, with small net outflows appearing on some trading days.
● Products like FBTC, BITB, etc., have similarly transitioned from stable capital attraction to occasional redemption hedging, resulting in a flattening or even declining overall funding curve.

● In Sync with Price Trends:
● Bitcoin's price adjusted downward in June from a high range, with a phase decline reaching double-digit percentages, and the price pullback coincided closely with the ETF net outflow in timing.
● The funding turning point reinforced the market's perception that "the previous ETF capital-driven price increase was too rapid," leading some institutions to actively reduce positions and lock in profits from the earlier months of the year.

Regulatory Clouds and Cooling Sentiment

● U.S. Regulatory Signals Tighten:
● In June, U.S. regulatory agencies increased the frequency of enforcement and inquiries regarding crypto-related institutions and products, with several cases involving trading platforms and token classifications entering critical stages.
● Regulators have repeatedly emphasized the scrutiny of high leverage, cross-border compliance, and anti-money laundering in public forums, indirectly raising the internal compliance thresholds for large financial institutions to increase their allocation of Bitcoin-related assets.

● Policy Expectations Disrupt ETF Redemption Rhythm:
● Some brokerage and investment bank research reports indicate that stricter information disclosure and liquidity stress testing requirements may be faced in the coming quarters, prompting some institutional clients to choose to reduce holdings in June to lower exposure to regulatory uncertainty.
● The market's optimistic expectations for "more crypto-related ETFs being approved" have been adjusted, leading to a rise in cautious sentiment among incremental funds.

● Macroeconomic Environment and Risk Appetite Decline:
● In June, U.S. Treasury yields fluctuated at high levels, with market expectations for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates this year being revised down multiple times, weakening global liquidity easing expectations.
● In an environment of high interest rates and strong tech stocks, some institutions withdrew funds from the more volatile Bitcoin ETFs, shifting towards traditional asset allocations.

Mismatch Between Post-Halving Supply Logic and Demand Reality

The correction in June and the ETF net outflow are not isolated events but resonate with the reality gap of the classic narrative of "supply contraction—price rigidly rising" following Bitcoin's halving. The April halving did alleviate new selling pressure on the supply side, but the true protagonists on the demand side have gradually shifted from early retail investors and miners to institutions and compliant funds entering through ETFs. When the behavior patterns of these new protagonists align more with "asset rebalancing" rather than "passively hoarding coins," a single halving event is unlikely to continuously drive prices upward. Meanwhile, regulatory uncertainties and a macro high-interest rate environment have suppressed the entry rhythm of some potential demand, causing the ideal chain of "halving—ETF—bull market" to experience timing mismatches and insufficient intensity in reality.

Bull-Bear Divergence and Market Game

● Optimistic/Supporters: Still Emphasizing Long-Term Structural Benefits:
● They believe that the ETF net outflow in June is more of a technical correction of previous gains and a rebalancing of positions, rather than a trend-driven capital withdrawal.
● From the holding structure, the cumulative net inflow since January this year still far exceeds the single-month outflow in June, and the total assets under management (AUM) of ETFs remain at historical high levels.
● The halving has already occurred, and the ETF infrastructure has been established; as long as the macro environment warms slightly and regulatory expectations stabilize, there is still room for incremental capital to flow back.

● Pessimistic/Opponents: Concerned that the "ETF Bull Market" Logic Has Peaked:
● They point out that ETFs have already preemptively exhausted a large amount of expectations in previous months, and June's performance may signal "marginal buying exhaustion," making it difficult to replicate the strength of net inflows seen at the beginning of the year.
● They emphasize that the uncertainty of the regulatory path will raise the threshold for institutions to add allocations, causing ETFs to become more of a trading tool rather than a long-term allocation vehicle.
● They believe that in an environment of high interest rates and intertwined geopolitical risks, Bitcoin is unlikely to gain the same macro tailwinds as in 2020-2021, making it difficult for the ETF narrative to independently support a new large-scale bull market.

Market Outlook and Key Observation Points

In the short term, the market will focus on whether the ETF funding curve can turn positive again, the pace of further U.S. regulatory implementation, and the marginal changes in macro interest rate expectations. If the U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF can restore moderate net inflows during a volatile market in July-August, and if there is no unexpected tightening from the regulatory side, then the outflow in June may be viewed as a phase reshuffling, creating space for a healthier upward trend in the future. Conversely, if net outflows persist for more than three months and are accompanied by prices consistently falling below key cost zones for the year, caution should be exercised regarding the mid-term risk of "the first cycle peak of the ETF era."

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