Recently, the Ethena Payment Card sector has seen a concentrated increase in activity, with on-chain protocol data and secondary market sentiment rising in tandem. Projects surrounding the Scroll Chain + Payment Card narrative have garnered unexpected attention. Multiple institutions and whales have begun to increase their positions in related assets, attempting to achieve higher Beta returns through new sectors during the volatility of mainstream assets. This round of capital migration is not an isolated impulse but is highly resonant with the soaring TVL of the Ethena system and the "spillover effect" following the decline in yields.

Scroll Payment Card Sector Data and Landscape

● Scroll has captured about 56% of the Payment Card sector: Research Brief shows that among the payment card-related protocols derived from the current Ethena narrative, projects deployed on Scroll account for approximately 56% of the sector share (based on a comprehensive measure of TVL and active users), making it the absolute main battleground in this sub-sector.
● Sector TVL has recently seen significant increases: With the on-chain capital spillover driven by the attractiveness of Ethena yields, the TVL of the payment card sector has recently risen in a stepwise manner, with multiple protocols experiencing TVL growth concentrated in the range of 50%–150% compared to one month ago, with funds increasingly focused on solutions that can interact with the Ethena ecosystem.
● Top projects are rapidly gaining traction: The Brief mentions that top payment card projects on Scroll have seen a double-digit percentage increase in new addresses and transaction counts over the past week, with the peak number of daily active addresses nearly doubling since the beginning of the month, reflecting a parallel influx of speculative and real users.
● Protocol revenue and usage scenarios are expanding in sync: The fee income of payment card protocols and the number of user transactions have both increased, with some projects seeing nearly 100% month-on-month growth in protocol revenue over the past 7 days, primarily benefiting from on-chain consumption, cashback incentives, and scenarios using Ethena yield combinations.
● User structure shows a duality of "high ticket + high frequency small amounts": Currently, on Scroll's payment card protocols, there are both a small number of high-net-worth addresses making high-ticket payments and a large number of small, high-frequency on-chain transactions. The top 100 addresses contribute over 40% of the payment volume, but in terms of transaction counts, long-tail users remain the main force.

Capital Flow and Major Players' Strategies

● News-driven: Ethena ecosystem expansion is the direct catalyst: Ethena's TVL has skyrocketed from a low point earlier this year to the tens of billions level. After a phase of declining annualized yields, capital began to seek the next stop for the "Ethena narrative + practical scenarios," with payment cards being the most direct direction for this transition. Scroll's share in this sector reaching 56% naturally makes it the main battlefield for concentrated new capital.
● Capital trends: On-chain data shows sustained net inflows: The Brief notes that recently, top payment card projects deployed on Scroll have shown a trend of net inflows > net outflows over several days, with a cumulative increase in locked positions reaching tens of millions of dollars, and the average single deposit amount from institutions and large addresses far exceeding that of retail investors.
● Whales and institutions are heavily testing the waters: On-chain tags and concentrated large transfers indicate that some wallets marked as funds or market-making related have begun to be active around Scroll payment card protocols, with single entry amounts mostly in the six to seven-figure dollar range, reflecting optimistic expectations for the mid-term performance of this sector.
● Secondary market liquidity has significantly improved: Mainstream tokens related to payment card protocols have seen a noticeable increase in trading volume over the past week, with some targets experiencing daily trading volume increases of 2–3 times compared to the previous period, and the buy-sell orders have become more balanced. Short-term capital is engaging in high-frequency trading amid high volatility, amplifying price elasticity.
● Yield structure shifting from "pure mining" to a mixed "scenario + yield" model: Capital is no longer chasing only single mining incentives but is beginning to value the comprehensive yield structure of "cashback + Ethena yield + protocol points/credits." The Brief points out that some projects' comprehensive yield estimates can still reach double-digit annualized returns in the short term, which is quite attractive to DeFi veterans.

Deep Logic: From Ethena Yields to Payment Entry Points

The recent warming of the payment card sector is not an isolated "speculative hype" but a product of the high yield consensus brought by Ethena and the structural demand from on-chain users for "real consumption/payment entry points." When Ethena's yield rates fall from extremely high levels to more sustainable ranges, early investors' rolling yields begin to seek new amplifiers: on one hand, continuing to compound on-chain, and on the other, looking for tools that can bind on-chain assets to daily consumption. Payment cards perfectly complete this link—serving as both a cash-out channel for on-chain yields and an expansion vehicle for on-chain asset application scenarios. Among many candidate chains, Scroll has established a dual advantage of scale effect + narrative effect in the payment card sub-sector due to its balance in fees, performance, and compatibility, along with an active developer ecosystem, attracting capital to concentrate and form positive feedback in a short time.

Bullish and Bearish Perspectives and Risk Strategies

● Bullish/supporting side: Seen as the next high Beta extension under the Ethena narrative: Supporters believe that Ethena has proven the feasibility of "high yield + scenario linkage," and the payment card sector provides a real-world consumption entry point, likely converting on-chain yields into broader user growth. With Scroll already capturing 56% of the payment card share, betting within this ecosystem could yield higher elastic returns than mainstream assets in the next phase.
● Bearish/cautious side: Concerns about valuation overextension and regulatory uncertainties: Conservative views argue that the prices of payment card-related tokens have rapidly increased alongside TVL and narrative in a short time, and the protocol revenues of most projects have not fully matched the current valuations in real consumption scenarios. If Ethena's mainline yields further decline and overall market risk appetite cools, the payment card sector may experience liquidity plummeting and valuation repricing. Additionally, payment-related businesses are inherently in a more compliance-sensitive area, and the uncertainty of future policy directions is a core risk that must be weighed before further capital increases.

In the short term, the market will focus on changes in the Ethena yield curve, the sustainability of Scroll payment card sector TVL, and the release of real consumption data. If Ethena can maintain a considerable but sustainable yield level over a longer period, and if the payment card protocols on Scroll continue to see double-digit monthly growth in daily active users and protocol revenue, then the current capital congestion may evolve into a more long-term ecological advantage; conversely, if yield expectations and real usage data diverge significantly, leading and marginal projects in the sector will be quickly repriced, and capital will shift from thematic speculation to more refined asset selection and risk hedging.

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