Bitcoin and Ethereum's recent market trends have become increasingly calm, and behind the ongoing low-volume fluctuations, a significant directional volatility is brewing.

Macro

From a macro perspective, the minutes from the Federal Reserve's December meeting released key signals: most officials agree that as long as inflation continues to show a slowing trend, further interest rate cuts are reasonable. However, there are significant internal disagreements regarding the timing and magnitude of these cuts. This minutes not only reveal the divergence of opinions within the Federal Reserve's decision-making body but also clearly suggest that the January interest rate meeting is likely to remain unchanged. The current market expectation for maintaining interest rates in January has stabilized at 85%. It is noteworthy that the Federal Reserve has initiated a short-term Treasury bond purchase plan, intending to continue releasing liquidity over the next 12 months. This easing action will inject potential benefits into the cryptocurrency market, becoming an important support for future trends.

In terms of market performance, Bitcoin rebounded yesterday, reaching a peak of around 89,400 in the evening, but fell back during the early morning hours, returning to a narrow fluctuation pattern. On the technical side, the daily Bollinger Bands are maintaining a flat trend, with the upper and lower bands further narrowing to 90,000–86,500, compressing the volatility space; the short-term moving averages on the four-hour chart are also flattening and intertwining, further confirming the fluctuation pattern.

Ethereum's movement is highly synchronized with Bitcoin, rebounding to around 3,010 yesterday before facing pressure and falling back. It is currently returning to a consolidation range of 2,900–3,000, with the Bollinger Band shape and moving average arrangement mirroring that of Bitcoin. Currently, market trading sentiment is low, with trading volume continuously shrinking, and funds generally adopting a wait-and-see attitude, awaiting the end of the New Year holiday for liquidity to warm up and indicate the market direction.

In the short term, attention should still be paid to the range fluctuation situation. For Bitcoin, key support levels to watch during the day are 87,000 and 86,500, as this area represents the lower edge of recent fluctuations and has strong support validity; resistance is seen at 89,500 and 90,000, with the breakthrough determining the height of the rebound. For Ethereum, short-term resistance is focused on the 3,000 and 3,060 positions. The 3,000 level has been under pressure for too long, so the resistance may weaken somewhat, while support is concentrated in the 2,900 and 2,860 range.

Coinciding with the year-end and month-end closing points, market expectations for a breakout trend are heating up. Today, it is essential to pay close attention to the evening's initial jobless claims data, as an unexpected performance in the data may become the catalyst to break the current stalemate.

Reminder: Market conditions change rapidly; this information is for reference only.

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