Recently, the overall market has been relatively volatile, with not many trading opportunities.
Last week and over the weekend, it mostly operated within a range.
Over the weekend, we held a short-term long position at the bottom, with a very clear positioning, just betting on a rebound, not a trend long.
Due to the low price level, a short-term rebound is understandable, but there is still significant resistance above, so the overall strategy remains—looking for high short opportunities after a rebound.
The key question yesterday: Why not chase long?
Around 5 PM yesterday, there was a significant rebound in price, and many friends asked if they could chase long.
I have repeatedly emphasized the key resistance level:
90,500–91,000.
The rebound high yesterday was around 90,300, which did not break through 91,000, and this was the third test of that resistance zone.
Everyone has seen the results of the previous tests; there was a pullback after testing the resistance.
Until the structure changes, there is no reason to believe that this time it will definitely break through.
Structure determines direction
The current structural state is very clear:
Weekly: Bearish
Daily: Bearish
Hourly: Also bearish
After the price rebounded from the low, it reached a maximum of around 94,000, but did not form an effective breakthrough, and the structure did not turn bullish.
To truly be bullish, at least one of the following conditions must be met:
Break through 94,000
Or effectively break through 90,500–91,000
Before that, there are no conditions for a bullish trend.
What to do next? The thought process is actually very simple
It is not recommended to chase shorts around 87,000.
This position has short-term support, and a rebound cannot be ruled out.
Plan A: Wait for a rebound to short high
If a rebound occurs, prioritize considering a high short, with the stop-loss point set at 91,000.
Plan B: Wait for the key low to break
The key low is around 84,500.
After it breaks, wait for a new adjustment, and then participating in short positions will be more reasonable.
It needs to be emphasized:
Having support does not mean it is worth going long.
Even if a rebound occurs, it does not mean this is suitable for participating in longs; the overall risk remains high.
Goals and direction remain unchanged
The short-term target for bears is still the previous low.
From 87,000 downwards, once it breaks below 80,000, there is still about 7,000 points of space.
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