Welcome to the Qinglan Crypto Classroom. Today, we will analyze BTC across four timeframes, including the news aspect:

First, from the 1H candlestick data, Bitcoin's recent performance is not optimistic. From the 70 candlesticks we have, Bitcoin surged to around $90,406 on December 29, but then faced significant selling pressure, causing the price to drop sharply.

MA Moving Averages: During the surge, the short-term moving average (MA5) crossed above the long-term moving averages (MA10, MA20), indicating a bullish arrangement and a strong trend. However, this did not last long. Starting from the evening of December 29, the moving averages quickly formed a death cross, and MA5, MA10, and MA20 are now in a bearish arrangement (latest data shows 87250 < 87348 < 87681), indicating a very clear short-term trend: a decline. MACD Indicator: During the previous upward phase, the MACD was showing red energy bars that continued to expand, but soon began to diminish. During the decline, the DIF line has sharply turned downwards and formed a death cross with the DEA line, and the MACD histogram is now showing green bars that continue to expand, with both DIF and DEA in the negative territory (latest data: DIF -285.06, DEA -216.31), indicating strong bearish momentum that is still being released. RSI Indicator: During the surge, the RSI reached as high as 88.62, entering a severe overbought zone, which is a risk signal in itself. Now, the RSI has dropped to around 36.23. Although it hasn't reached extreme oversold levels (below 20), it already shows widespread selling sentiment and a weak market state.

Combining this with the latest news, the current atmosphere is leaning bearish. Several news articles directly state "BTC falls below $87,000" and "the crypto market declines, BTC falls below $88,000," which aligns perfectly with the candlestick trends we see. The latest news (10:55) further confirms that BTC has fallen below the $87,000 mark, currently quoted at $86,998, indicating that the price continues to decline after the candlestick pattern. Especially with the heavy news that "whale leverage short positions reach $169 million, heavily shorting BTC, ETH, and SOL," large funds are shorting, indicating that the risk of going long in the short term is very high. Additionally, news like "Bitcoin and Ethereum rebound weakly, market sentiment returns causing stagnation" also confirms the technical observation of weak rebounds after declines. Although some news mentions "BTC will hit a historical high in 2026" and "BTC will break $150,000," these are long-term positive expectations, but for now, they are not a solution to immediate problems. In the short term, funds are still flowing out of BTC and ETH into altcoins like XRP and SOL, which also adds selling pressure on Bitcoin. There are even warnings of a "crypto winter," which sounds quite chilling, haha.

In summary, looking at the 15-minute, 1-hour, 4-hour, and daily charts:

Short-term (15 minutes/1 hour): The trend is clearly downward. Candlestick data and the latest news show that the price has fallen below $87,000 and continues to decline. Key resistance level: The recent resistance is around $87,200-$87,500 (near the 1H candlestick closing price and short-term moving averages), and above that is the psychological level of $88,000 and the short-term high of $90,000. Key support level: In the short term, $86,073 (whale liquidation price) may provide some support, but once it breaks, the downside may open further. The current price is already below $87,000, so we need to pay attention to the support around $86,000. Reversal pattern: Currently, on the 1H chart, we have not seen a clear bottom reversal pattern, such as a bullish engulfing, morning star, or W bottom, so we cannot blindly catch the bottom yet.

Mid-term (4 hours): The trend has shifted from the previous upward movement to a sideways downward trend. On the 4-hour chart, if the price continues to operate below $87,000, it is likely to further confirm the mid-term downward trend. Key resistance level: The $88,000-$89,000 range is a relatively strong mid-term resistance. Key support level: Pay attention to the support in the $85,000-$86,000 area, which is very important for stabilizing the mid-term trend.

Long-term (daily chart): Previously, there was an upward trend, but after this significant drop, the long-term upward trend is being challenged, currently in a correction or consolidation phase. Although there are bullish expectations for 2026, the short-term correction also needs time to digest. Key resistance level: $90,000-$90,500 is a high point that is difficult to surpass in the short term. Key support level: The key support at the daily level is at $85,000; if it breaks, we need to be cautious of deeper correction risks.

Our trading thoughts and predictions are:

In the short term, Bitcoin's trend is weak, and the downward trend is evident. Both the news and technical aspects point to a bearish dominance. We do not recommend blindly going long or heavily catching the bottom right now; the risks are too high!

Shorting strategy: If the price shows a slight rebound but cannot break through the resistance at $87,500 or even $88,000, consider trying to short near the resistance level with a light position, setting a stop-loss just above, targeting potential support at $86,000 or even lower. Longing strategy: If one must go long, it is essential to wait for a clearer bottom pattern to appear, such as effective support around $85,000, and a strong rebound signal after the RSI enters the oversold zone, or a bullish crossover in the MACD. Before that, manage your position well; it’s better to miss out than to make a mistake. Risk warning: The large short positions of whales indicate a bearish market sentiment; we must follow the trend, pay attention to risk management, and never go against the trend.

Finally, let me share a trading quote from Qinglan: "The market is not an ATM; it is a magnifying glass of human nature. Only by respecting the market can we proceed cautiously."

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