Recently, I've been in vacation mode, and I'm exhausted. During the day, I have to provide emotional value, at night I drink and chat with friends, and I start writing in the early hours. I get up and head out the next morning. This has been going on for a week, and in another week, it will be almost over. Although it feels tiring to complain, I actually enjoy this lifestyle. In the past, I would wake up and immediately start reading the news, writing, and studying. Now, I can spend more time with family and travel with friends, which makes me very happy.
But this kind of life is only okay occasionally; over time, I still find it a bit hard to adapt. This morning, when I saw $BTC reach $90,000, I wanted to see how the U.S. stock market would perform after opening. After all, under favorable conditions, the possibility of the U.S. stock market driving prices higher is greater, especially in a low liquidity situation. It was normal for it to drop back to around $88,000 in the evening.
We've been talking about the $90,000 curse for a long time. Although I don't know the reason, I can see that trading volume is increasing, which suggests there are quite a few sellers. A breakthrough that resolves this situation may still require stronger positive news to support buying.
Looking at Bitcoin's data, after Monday, the turnover rate is still not high, indicating that high-frequency traders are still in vacation mode. The U.S. stock market has also seen a slight decline, which should be within a normal range. Recently, there hasn't been any critical data or important speeches, just fatigue regarding 2025.
From the current chip structure, the probability of re-establishing a bottom at $83,000 is very high, and the open interest at $87,000 has exceeded 800,000 $BTC, indicating that the probability of high volatility is also increasing. In the short term, it still looks healthy, as the earlier loss-making chips remain very stable.
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