Author: sysls
Compiled by: Luffy, Foresight News
I am not a stock-picking expert. I believe in a strategy of casting a wide net with a low win rate (≤53%), but I am willing to bet everything on one viewpoint: Long-term speculation will be the mainstream socio-economic theme of the next century.
This also explains why people over 40 advise you to focus on your job and seek salary increases, while those in other age groups ignore this advice and relentlessly pursue any opportunity that could lead to wealth.
The best product to sell to this demographic is hope. Once you understand this, you will grasp why various casinos (including decentralized exchanges, prediction markets, etc.) have emerged, and you will also understand why trading mentors, business moguls, paid courses, and of course, paid subscription columns on Substack are thriving.
The Beginning of the Predicament
Being trapped does not necessarily require a physical cage. Today, there is a generation moving forward with invisible shackles.
They know that a certain lifestyle truly exists: owning a house and a car, living steadily, and reaping rewards after thirty years of hard work. They know that some people are living this life, yet they cannot imagine how to reach it themselves. It is not a matter of difficulty; they simply cannot map out a feasible path from their current situation to their ideal life.
The traditional path to wealth accumulation has long been closed off; it has not just become more difficult, but completely blocked. When the baby boomer generation, which makes up 20% of the total population, holds nearly 50% of the nation's wealth, while the millennial generation, also at 20%, holds only 10%, the inherent flaws of this wealth accumulation mechanism become glaringly obvious.
The ladder to climb upward has been pulled away. This is not something the baby boomer generation did intentionally; rising asset prices naturally benefit asset holders. But regardless of the original intent, the end result is the same.
The Collapse of Traditional Contracts
In the past, the implicit social contract was simple and clear: show up on time, work hard, and be loyal to the company, and you would be rewarded. Companies would provide pensions, seniority was crucial, and houses would quietly appreciate while you slept. As long as you trusted this system, it would work for you.
Today, this contract has become a mere piece of paper.
Working for a company for 20 years is no longer a plus in the workplace; instead, it has become a professional liability. Salary increases are only 8%, while housing prices have doubled, and the debt pressure on young people has surged by about 33%. Patience alone cannot lead to wealth.
I once thought the situation was bad enough, but with the rise of artificial intelligence and the economic impact it is about to bring, I realize that the situation will only become more severe.
When the system no longer rewards patience, people will naturally abandon it. This is rational adaptation.
Push and Pull
Currently, two forces are propelling young people forward.
Pull: High-Level Needs Without a Place to Land
Modern society has largely addressed the basic needs of Maslow's hierarchy. Food prices are low, basic housing is traceable, and while safety, healthcare, and basic employment are not guaranteed, they are sufficient to prevent most young people from struggling for survival.
The older generation, facing economic pressures, encounters a different dilemma. When you are worried about basic needs, you have no time to contemplate the meaning of life. Working hard is the obvious choice because failing to do so would lead to hunger. You would accept a stable job and play it safe, as this job is your lifeline.
However, this generation does not have such survival shackles.
When survival needs are met, humans will pursue higher-level needs: belonging, respect, and self-actualization. They crave rich life experiences, seek meaning in life, and desire direction and purpose rather than a monotonous routine. Yet, the traditional paths to achieving these higher-level needs—buying a house, career advancement, financial security—have all been blocked.
Essentially, we are like a group of gorillas instinctively scratching at the "scar" of self-actualization, bleeding yet helpless, completely unaware of how to break through.
Push: The Increasing Anxiety of Survival
Artificial intelligence is eating away at white-collar jobs, and this is a well-known fact.
This anxiety is not unfounded. The copy written by ChatGPT is better than that of most entry-level marketers; the visual works generated by Midjourney far exceed the level of novice designers; the code written by Cursor and Claude is sufficient to pass review. Almost everyone, except those with severely outdated skills, acknowledges this.
Every month, new tests show that AI has reached or surpassed human levels in tasks that once required high degrees and years of training.
White-collar workers, or those eager to improve their financial situation, are watching their career shelf life shrink. Three years ago, "AI will replace knowledge workers" was merely a thought experiment; now, it has become a presupposition in corporate planning. Everyone is asking "when will it replace" rather than "will it replace," and the predicted timelines are continually being moved forward.
Adding to the pressure is social media, which keeps you perpetually dissatisfied with your current situation.
The ultimate goal of algorithms is to show you the life you could have. The vacation spots you haven't visited, the apartments you can't afford, the more refined lifestyles of those a level above you. No matter what stage of life you are in, there is always someone living the life you aspire to, and the algorithm can always accurately push that content in front of you.
The lives that the older generation could access were very limited—just neighbors, colleagues, or a few celebrities in magazines, with an extremely narrow frame of reference. But now, the frame of reference has become infinitely broad. A 25-year-old earning $70,000 a year will constantly see content about peers earning $2 million a year, living in Bali, and working only four hours a day. The standard of "good" is continually raised.
You can never catch up. No matter what achievements you attain, social media will always highlight your shortcomings. The gap between your real life and your ideal life is firmly maintained by algorithms, never to be bridged.
On one side, AI is continuously compressing career prospects, while on the other, social media makes it impossible to feel satisfied. The pressure to "escape the predicament while there is still a chance" is increasing day by day.
Anxiety is everywhere. Every white-collar worker has pondered, "Can AI replace my job? When?" Most people arrive at an unoptimistic conclusion. Even if they believe they are temporarily safe, that temporary safety is continually shrinking.
Thus, this generation finds itself in a dilemma: unable to afford traditional life milestones, yet believing that traditional paths may completely disappear before they reach their destination. Taking a gamble while they still have money and opportunities has become the most rational choice.
After all, why toil away for twenty years for a promotion that may not exist a decade from now?
The Maslow Trap
When you can survive but cannot take a step forward, something within you collapses. You are not yet desperate enough to accept any conditions, yet you are blocked from truly important opportunities. The energy that was once used for survival has all transformed into frustration, confusion, and a desperate search for any possible way out.
Career advancement is not just about salary increases; it is also about gaining a sense of purpose, identity, and the achievement of "my work has value." Financial security is not just about money; it is also about having the confidence to take risks, the freedom to travel the world, and the ability to create.
When these paths are blocked and the time window for achieving goals continues to shrink, the pressure must find an outlet. These "prisoners" urgently need a way out and desperately need to find it now.
The Casino: The Only Lifeline
I first saw this phenomenon in the public blockchain field of cryptocurrency, initially thinking it was just a passing trend. Later, this trend appeared in the NFT space, and then it intensified in the chaos of perpetual contract decentralized exchanges, and now it has spread to the so-called "super cycle of prediction markets."
Those young people unwilling to toil away in the same company are willing to spend months studying cryptocurrency trading; they invest significant energy into researching prediction markets, trying to understand this "manipulated economy" they firmly believe in; those who mock traditional investments as "insider games" will bet their rent money on a meme coin.
Why is this?
Because the casino is the only place where they can feel a sense of control. Here, their decisions have the potential to open the door to a higher level of life within the time frame that matters to them.
Traditional career paths? Your boss gets promoted based on seniority rather than ability, and your department could be automated at any moment. Stock market investment? Sure, you can earn a 10% return each year and then afford a house in 47 years, provided your job is still there.
But cryptocurrency? Prediction markets? Sports betting? Here, your research really matters, and your conviction can yield returns. Even if it is just a "self-perceived advantage," it completely belongs to you, without relying on others' charity. Betting in these areas means your judgment can directly determine the outcome.
Casinos do have a house edge, and most people ultimately lose. I believe most people understand this. Yet they still choose to participate because they do not want to wait for a future that may never come. Those who advise them to "stop gambling" do not understand the situation of these "prisoners" and often carry a sense of intellectual superiority with their "this is a negative expected value gamble" rhetoric. My view is that these gamblers are well aware of this.
Those who say "gambling is harmful, you should stop" almost all come from the privileged upper echelons of finance. They can see the way out and find the path, so they advocate the benefits of "following the rules."
But for countless people trapped in financial cages, gambling is their salvation. And the words of the advisors are no different from asking them to accept a fate of never being able to turn their lives around. This is why they resist, and why your earnest advice is often just a breeze in their ears.
Cold Data: The Reality Behind the Frenzy
What do the specific data show?
- Prediction Markets: In November 2025 alone, the trading volume of the two major platforms, Polymarket and Kalshi, exceeded $10 billion, with the annual total trading volume approaching $40 billion. In 2020, this figure was almost zero, with a growth curve that is nearly vertical.
- Sports Betting: Revenue from legal sports betting skyrocketed from $248 million in 2017 to $13.7 billion in 2024. Millennials and Generation Z contributed 76% of the betting volume, with these two groups' activity on online sports betting platforms increasing by 7% year-on-year.
TransUnion's report defines these bettors as "speculators": they are urban renters, frequently using cryptocurrency applications, and active on mobile trading platforms. This group of young people, shut out from traditional wealth accumulation paths, is going all in on the only market that can provide asymmetric returns.
Confirmation of Economic Theory
When people find themselves in a predicament, their risk preferences change.
Economists refer to this phenomenon as "loss aversion utility": when you are already in a state of loss, you are more willing to gamble, even with a tiny chance of recovering, rather than accepting a certain small loss. This is why people choose to double down after losing in blackjack, and it is also the root of why lottery sales are higher in low-income communities.
In my view, the drive of social media and higher-level needs has created an illusion for those far from the upper echelons of finance that they are "already at a loss." The baseline for the "break-even point" has been completely raised. This also explains why some people seriously say that "an annual income of $150,000 is the threshold for escaping poverty." This generation gambles not to survive, but to truly live.
When basic needs are met and higher-level needs are blocked, the meaning of money shifts from "ensuring safety" to "gaining a ticket to entry"—a ticket to experiences, a ticket to freedom, and a ticket to that unattainable ideal life. A house is no longer just a shelter from the elements, but a foundation for rooting, building community, and a symbol of adulthood; travel is no longer a luxury, but an experience that makes life worthwhile.
For this generation, since there is no hope of achieving these goals through traditional means, the expected value of taking a gamble begins to outweigh the expected value of hard work. If your life baseline is "forever treading water," then even a perceived 5% chance of a turnaround is mathematically far more attractive than a 100% chance of being stuck in place.
This is not financial ignorance, but a rational choice in a constrained environment.
Those meme coin speculators, sports bettors, frequenters of prediction markets, and subscribers to paid trading courses all understand the odds are slim. They also know they have no other choice. When the only options in front of them are "doomed to be stuck" and "likely to be stuck but with a glimmer of hope," anyone would choose the latter.
Long-Term Speculation
So, what should we bet on?
If my judgment is correct, this generation of young people locked in economic predicaments will continue to seek a sense of control through high-volatility financial products; therefore, all sectors that meet this demand are worth long-term investment.
Regardless of whether users win or lose, the platform is always the winner. What you need to find are those platforms that do not care about the users' bets, only profiting from transaction fees, and the trading activity on these platforms is continuously soaring.
- Entrepreneurship Sector: The industry landscape of "escaping the 9-to-5" is rapidly expanding. Some sell drop shipping tutorials, others teach agency models, and some peddle "secrets to earning $10,000 a month." "Becoming an entrepreneur" has long been recognized as a "lottery" in society—it sounds positive and empowering, as if you are building your own business. Most entrepreneurs will ultimately fail, but this does not diminish people's enthusiasm, just as low winning rates do not affect lottery sales.
- Prediction Markets: Polymarket's valuation has reached $8-10 billion. People predict that the overall potential market size of this sector is comparable to the entire gambling industry, exceeding $1 trillion. Even if this prediction is 90% inflated, it is still an astonishing market size.
- Cryptocurrency Infrastructure: Custody, trading, staking, lending—every wave of speculation requires new entry channels. Coinbase, Robinhood's cryptocurrency business line, and various professional exchanges can profit from trading volumes regardless of market fluctuations.
- Sports Betting Operators: DraftKings, FanDuel, and their infrastructure providers. Legal sports betting is gradually rolling out across U.S. states, with regulatory barriers creating a solid moat.
- Social Trading and Community Platforms: Discord, X platform, and Substack serve this demographic. They gather massive attention, and users are willing to pay for so-called "exclusive insider information."
What we are betting on is not the win or loss of a particular speculator, but the sustainability of this phenomenon. The underlying economic conditions driving young people into high-risk speculation will not change easily. Platforms that profit from transaction fees will grow in tandem with user scale. Those trapped in financial cages will continue to place bets, never stopping.
Considering the known trends in artificial intelligence development, soaring housing prices, imbalanced wealth distribution, and intergenerational economic differences… is all of this really just a temporary phenomenon?
Moral Dimension of Reflection
It is important to clarify that my discussion is descriptive, not prescriptive.
Watching a generation place their hopes for financial redemption on various "lotteries" is certainly not something to celebrate. When prediction markets and meme coins become the only paths for people to seek a sense of control, this itself is a symptom of societal dysfunction. The house always wins, and most players will ultimately lose.
However, understanding the reality that is unfolding can help you find your place. It allows you to reflect on the current situation and decide whether to participate. If you choose to enter the game, you must remain clear-headed and only bet in areas where you have an advantage.
Every era's casino profits from people's despair. The current despair is real, verifiable, and escalating. These casinos are the merchants of hope—Polymarket, Coinbase, DraftKings are all included. They will continuously extract transaction fees, raking in profits.
You can stand on a moral high ground to criticize all of this, or you can choose to invest in these platforms. Ironically, the latter is one of the few paths that can help you escape the financial cage. Alternatively, you can join the ranks of gamblers—but if you choose this path, you must excel to the utmost.
Because this is not a game. We are talking about your life. If you plan to gamble your life, you must do everything possible to secure the best odds for yourself.
Conclusion
Let me tell you a true story.
I know a person who is very smart, works in the tech industry, and earns a considerable income by any historical standard. Last month, he invested $100,000 to earn platform points at a perpetual contract decentralized exchange. He did this not because he thought it was a wise investment.
But because, in his words: "What else can I do? Should I save money for twenty years and wait until I'm 55 to buy an apartment?"
I know very well that when the next decentralized exchange appears, he will bet again.
The era of long-term speculation has only just begun.
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