Master Talks Hot Topics:
This week there isn't much important data left, and as long as nothing unexpected happens, 2025 will likely just drift by. In fact, many people are already looking forward to 2026, hoping the new year will bring some decent expectations.
As for whether the President will announce the successor to the Federal Reserve Chair before 2026, to be honest, the short-term impact is really not significant. The market might fluctuate in sentiment for a couple of days, drawing a couple of needles on the K-line, and then continue its usual path.
The real issue is whether the President can genuinely control monetary policy through personnel and positions. If that can't be achieved, then no matter who occupies that position, they are just a high-level worker. The market won't buy it, and funds won't trust you.
Additionally, I've noticed many people recently fixating on the negative correlation between Bitcoin and gold and silver, starting to misinterpret it, talking about capital rotation and risk switching. A couple of days ago, gold and silver surged, but Bitcoin was pressed down.
Today, as gold and silver corrected, Bitcoin rebounded directly in the morning, and some people began to fantasize that capital was coming back. It cannot be denied that right now, gold, silver, copper, platinum, palladium, along with crude oil, are all surging together, a scene we haven't seen in the past decade.
The last time this happened was during the 2002 internet bubble burst and the 2008 financial crisis in the U.S. This isn't an inflation story; it's a complete loss of confidence in returns and risks by capital.
Funds aren't avoiding low returns; they're afraid of dying. The risks in the stock and cryptocurrency markets are too high, and the returns are uncertain, which is why money is hiding in precious metals. Personally, I don't see this money flowing back into the Bitcoin market; the rise in precious metals precisely indicates that market confidence is rotten to the core.
In this environment, Bitcoin has never been the optimal safe-haven asset. And safe-haven status has never been the primary attribute of cryptocurrencies; their greatest value lies in their concealment.
Back to the market, Bitcoin has been moving almost like a dead fish line on the daily chart since December 20, with volatility compressed to the limit. Compared to the ups and downs after the crash on November 21, the current movements don't even count as a heartbeat.
The range from 80K to 95K is a huge oscillation box, essentially a recovery period after a crash. Recovery periods usually last one to two months, and the end is inevitably accompanied by a convergence of volatility; the current state completely aligns with textbook examples.
Moreover, market strength is also shrinking, indicating that both bulls and bears are reluctant to act. There are clearly multiple lower point structures piled up around 83.5K, and liquidity will eventually attract someone to take a bite.
With such obvious liquidity attraction below, if we don't sweep the previous low, the structure won't be complete. For me, a pull to 80.5K for a stop-loss hunt would be considered a healthy bottoming process.
As for whether it will collapse directly after breaking down or spike back up, who knows? But if a harvest is truly completed there, I would not hesitate to push my mid-term long positions in.
Master Looks at Trends:
After a sharp rise in Bitcoin this morning, it has now entered an adjustment phase, with the 200-day moving average serving as a key reference. Currently, I see a maximum pullback space to 89K; if it can stabilize around 89.5K, it will be more favorable for subsequent rebounds.
When testing the 90K level, whether it can stabilize in the 90 to 90.3K range is crucial. The RSI on the 1-hour and 4-hour levels has already entered the overbought zone, so I do not recommend chasing highs for now. However, the daily RSI is around 50, indicating there is still room for further rebounds.
If the price pulls back to the first support at 89K, it would be a normal healthy adjustment. Given the previous large bullish candle, we need to guard against a sudden pullback. Before hitting the first support, we can pay attention to the support strength of the 200MA.
When pulling back near the first resistance, we should watch if 90K can stabilize, as this is key to whether the market can continue to strengthen. In terms of operations, either wait for a pullback to enter or wait for an effective breakthrough and stabilization before entering.
12.29 Master’s Band Trading Reference:
Long Entry Reference: Buy in the 88300-89000 range, Target: 90300
Short Entry Reference: Not applicable for now
If you truly want to learn something from a blogger, you need to keep following them, rather than making hasty conclusions after just a few market observations. This market is filled with performers; today they screenshot long positions, tomorrow they summarize short positions, making it seem like they "always catch the tops and bottoms," but in reality, it's all hindsight. A truly worthy blogger will have trading logic that is consistent, coherent, and withstands scrutiny, rather than jumping in only when the market moves. Don't be blinded by exaggerated data and out-of-context screenshots; long-term observation and deep understanding are necessary to discern who is a thinker and who is a dreamer!
This article is exclusively planned and published by Master Chen (WeChat public account: Coin God Master Chen). Master Chen is the same name across the internet. For more real-time investment strategies, solutions, spot trading, short, medium, and long-term contract trading methods, operational skills, and knowledge about K-lines, you can join Master Chen for learning and communication. A free experience group for fans has been opened, along with community live broadcasts and other quality experience projects!
Warm reminder: This article is only written by Master Chen on the official public account (as shown above), and other advertisements at the end of the article and in the comments section are unrelated to the author!! Please be cautious in distinguishing authenticity, thank you for reading.
免责声明：本文章仅代表作者个人观点，不代表本平台的立场和观点。本文章仅供信息分享，不构成对任何人的任何投资建议。用户与作者之间的任何争议，与本平台无关。如网页中刊载的文章或图片涉及侵权，请提供相关的权利证明和身份证明发送邮件到support@aicoin.com，本平台相关工作人员将会进行核查。
